Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

PPI 11.3%. More on the stuff people need and less on the optional stuff.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

richard5za wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:14 am I remain convinced that there will be a global recession and that both PE ratios and earnings will fall but the market bottom could be anything from 9 months to 2 even 3 years away

Timing will be difficult. I think all that matters at this point is when does it 30-40% more downward, not necessarily when it "bottoms." Why? Any price that you get in, with the right mindset and 3-5 or 5-10 year horizon, will be a great play (you know me, oil and commodities, btc).

The most interesting thing with the market will be how long the Fed waits to reverse ... and if it actually does anything for equity prices. The world is in a recession already.

More periphery failing. Celsius crypto company files for bankruptcy:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

DJIA:
30,213.19
-559.60

Tom Mazanec wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:41 am DJIA:
30,213.19
-559.60

It's always a 9-10am post and then the day ends up barely down lol

vincecate wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:37 am More periphery failing. Celsius crypto company files for bankruptcy:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Mashinsky lol, tried to escape to Israel.

Cool, I think the story is rapidly moving beyond the Fed’s actions and controls to global recession, the reduction in company’s earnings and lower PE ratios. The 1929 crash took 3 years from peak to bottom. The current bubble has taken more than 30 years in the making. We are talking about a monster which could easily mimic 1929. New territory needs new thinking . In my opinion the Fed has lost control

richard5za wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:09 am If you are new to short term trading and haven’t come across Crestmont Research it’s very helpful in getting over 100 years of stock market history into ones head. On the longer term both earnings and PE ratio are most likely to fall. Your projections for Elliot 3 are probably just the beginning. On the subject of gaps this is very common on same day trading and common in short term not for a technical reason but because traders look for them The smart money is not in short term trading

I'll take a look and check it out, thanks. Ya, the markets are at a pivot point right now and hard to tell which way she'll move. TSX technically points down but for the S&P, I can definitely see it rally in a potential C wave with enough USD weakness. Guess we'll see but even if it rallies, shouldn't be more than a week or two max, just wouldn't expect it to with negative earnings reports and all, but if the markets made sense, we'd all be rich.

Theres a point which has received very little discussion thus far: Boomers already in retirement or about to retire collectively own quite a high percentage of USA stock markets - either directly or through a wide variety of funds.
As the Dow, S&P 500, etc heads into further decline and these people start seeing the possibilty of a retirement with little money theres going to be a strong reaction which alter the course of the markets. Could have a strong political influence?
I suspect panic is the most probable reaction which could create the waterfall crash that we keep talking about
Any views?

richard5za wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:55 am Theres a point which has received very little discussion thus far: Boomers already in retirement or about to retire collectively own quite a high percentage of USA stock markets - either directly or through a wide variety of funds.

I've thought about this as well, is there a public chart that shows stock ownership? Have retirees and boomers been moving their 401k's out of the market and into other safer places? I'm sure the Fed and Central Banks know exactly how much every age range owns and I wonder if that could be part of their soft landing plan. Raise interest rates just enough to entice some savings, let inflation weaken purchasing power and slow the economy, while letting the interest rates and slow grind down of the stock market erode the rest of the middle class, and younger generations who are young enough to still work. As interest rates will never be higher than inflation, they then encourage the next bull market in commodities and let everyone think they're getting rich with CRB even though they're getting poorer everyday.