Financial topics

[vincecate]

It seems they are really going to kick Russia out of SWIFT.

I think the odds that Russia sells oil and gas for Bitcoin are going way up.

So China has a CIPS system that they have setup as a replacement for SWIFT. They could use this with Russia.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-can ... high-cost/

So it seems like CIPS is the more likely option, though I think Bitcoin would be a better option.

[Cool Breeze]

It seems they are really going to kick Russia out of SWIFT.

I think the odds that Russia sells oil and gas for Bitcoin are going way up.

So China has a CIPS system that they have setup as a replacement for SWIFT. They could use this with Russia.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-can ... high-cost/

So it seems like CIPS is the more likely option, though I think Bitcoin would be a better option.

They'll use both.

[John]

** 28-Feb-2022 World View: Bitcoin vs CIPS

> So China has a CIPS system that they have setup as a replacement
> for SWIFT. They could use this with Russia.

> https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-can ... high-cost/

> So it seems like CIPS is the more likely option, though I think
> Bitcoin would be a better option.

The problem is that bitcoin cannot be controlled by the Russian and
Chinese governments, while CIPS can be totally controlled.

[vincecate]

The problem is that bitcoin cannot be controlled by the Russian and
Chinese governments, while CIPS can be totally controlled.

Ya. Totalitarian types want control and they can't control Bitcoin. But they need something that American, Europe, the UN can not control.
I think CIPS is controlled by the Chinese, so it may not be any better than Bitcoin in Russia's eyes.
And the big guys could put some pressure on China to cut Russia off of CIPS.

Venezuela and Iran could also sell oil in Bitcoin.

I think they will eventually use Bitcoin, but maybe not till after they run into trouble with CIPS.

[vincecate]

I think they will eventually use Bitcoin, but maybe not till after they run into trouble with CIPS.

I note that Bitcoin is up 10% today and suspect I am not the only one that thinks Russia having SWIFT troubles makes Bitcoin more important.

[aeden]

No way to short biti for some time to hard assets.
As we noted those who survived bought a grinder for flour.
Evil times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJHeltDiUfs Last words of a Mother and the Son.

[richard5za]

Vince, on the subject of inflation, I note that both Russia and Ukraine are substantail exporters of wheat, maize and sunflower oil.
So I suspect that global food prices will increase quite a lot. So any plan within the USA to reduce inflation this year to below 4% is probably now totally doomed.

[vincecate]

Vince, on the subject of inflation, I note that both Russia and Ukraine are substantail exporters of wheat, maize and sunflower oil.
So I suspect that global food prices will increase quite a lot. So any plan within the USA to reduce inflation this year to below 4% is probably now totally doomed.

Also oil and gas.

The USA did not have any plan to reduce inflation and 0% interest rates with 7.5% inflation is far more "inflationary" than when they had 0% interest and 4% inflation. So they are really pushing for inflation harder now than ever before.

I don't expect inflation to go down anytime soon.

[Cool Breeze]

And they say we don't predict anything correctly.

This has been a smoke show for us inflationistas, for over a year now too.

[vincecate]

Both Cleveland Fed and "Consensus" are predicting in 9 days we get a 7.8% CPI:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

I expect we are higher than that.

Again, I think the majority of people think that inflation is just going to go back down to 2% as the supply chains get better.
I think they are very wrong. After some CPI report I expect people to start realizing they are wrong. It might be this
one or maybe it will take more still.