Financial topics

[vincecate]

Mish re-calculates CPI with real house prices instead of OER and comes up with a CSAI of 9.7%:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/home-pri ... tion-curve

I think this is closer to how inflation was measured in the 1970s and so more comparable to those times.

[vincecate]

Now both he Cleveland Fed and "The Consensus" are saying the CPI number in 6 days will be 7.3%.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

That 0.3% is more in one month than the Fed plans to do in 3 months of rate hikes.
We are going to be hearing a lot more of "behind the curve".

[aeden]

Neocons pagan juice playing with fire over insignificant Ukraine in attempts to topple Rus. Similarly, destroying China will lead to huge shortage of
" hooked on" low cost labor not easily transferable to other smaller nations will lead to double digit inflation .
Historically when we reach limits of debt growth, protectionism kicks in one way or another.

As another said wanted to see what it was like without being there.
The 1918 to 1933 preriod that seared in the mind the results of these lunatics on parade now.
Xi and Putin are 10 steps ahead just like the Central banks are 10 steps ahead on the wasting as no border
in the warning of the three different Locusts in the Book.

My price went from $2.80 to 3.10 per pound farm to freezer. As we warned the next segment is here of the 100 day window.
First blush was march sweeps do go ahead and worship portfolio theory.
The fact is we are fine for now below the margin and the issue of free to fair trade is beyond reproach in context to times, times,
and half a time warmup to events in the known window of affairs. The Senate is a disgrace to the People.

Better than myself indicate it will be more than self evident by September upcoming.
As warned we are reset in December for the next 100 day sogo survival window in my view alone also.
The fiat fools cannot stop what is more than on its way. Sat Nov 13, 2021 6:19 pm

And, behold, there met him a woman with the attire of an harlot, and subtil of heart.

subtil, arum lilies, poison

Repetition of Joel 3:16; and Amos.
To wither appears to be the judgement since they cannot fathom Science in our current view also.

As for the dead cats put them in the spreader and come spring thaw put them on the back field and then plow them under.
Fudge packer alludes to having the same background foisting logic. Priceless....

I find humor they think the market reflects the economy.
The swap lines to sterilize the boomers dollar thought map again from what Volkner stated then....

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:58 pm
We discussed bundles since econometrics.
These open border lunatics in the Senate do not even pretend to care.

The only sane thing I seen lately was a Dent macto analysis and why these Econ-omist are demographic wall halfwits.

thread: amos, sogo, RBT-0813

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=v5lz32Ni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj3uRIFscdc

[richard5za]

** 04-Feb-2022 World View: Peak CPI

> My understanding is that investors are pricing this market at CPI
> 3.5% for 2022 and less than 2% for 2023.
If you look at my historical cpi page

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm

and you look at the year 2008, you can see that once the cpi peaks, it
starts to fall fairly quickly.

So when will the cpi reach a peak in the current context?

If you look at the last four values -- 5.39, 6.22, 6.81, 7.04 -- you
can see that the monthly increases are decreasing (i.e., the 2nd
derivative appears to be negative).

This suggests that the peak will occur in January or February (to be
announced on Feb 10 or Mar 10).

This is consistent with what I wrote to you last year in response to a
similar query:

> So I'm suggesting that the end may come as early as February,
> thanks to the "corrective action" provided by such factors as
> supply chain problems clearing up, holiday-based demand
> decreasing, and post-holiday sales bringing retail prices down.
> It may start coming down a bit later than that, but the Law of
> Reversion of the Mean says that it won't be much later. And that
> doesn't mean that the cpi will fall below 2.62% in February. It
> means that the cpi will have peaked in February, and will start
> falling month after month, until it's below 2.62% and, indeed,
> until it's below 0.

In 2008 and 2009 the USA economy registered negative GDP, more in 2009 but a reflection of negative events in 2008
I don't think that 2022 will be a negative GDP year for America, but its not going to be a high growth year either. So in this context I suspect CPI will come down at a slower pace than 2008.
The point here is the impact upon the market. The price of stocks are more influenced by the P/E ratio than by earnings. Play with the figures and you will see.
So if inflation drops suddenly, as you suggest, investors will be happy with the current PE ratios (that are in the sky) If CPI remains high, then Vince's point kicks in, that investors will take fright at the high PE ratios and exit the market, maybe causing a crash. Or perhaps its a correction and something else causes the crash later on
Having said all this, I have no doubt that in the longer term you view will prevail and inflation will turn negative, perhaps double digit negative?

[aeden]

Inflation will be shot between eyes when demand drops. Those who can service the existing fixed debt.
The below the margin calculations was forwarded here to provoke thought maps of even a swot measure.
Mish is a good read as are the gallery here more than not.
We are idiots you will lose all your money. ra = rrf + Ba (rm-rrf)
Of course we take delivery and rent stocks also as some longer than others.

esg =
extra stupid groups

Crap created by the parasitical management consultancies and large public accountants and then institutionalized
into the Federal and State regulatory agencies to create multi year daisy chain annuities to their benefit at the expense
of shareholders or private company owners. It is a Leftist extension into broader society of political correctness and cancel culture.
It's just a way of cutting off access to capital for "unapproved" industries and companies.
Deese and Pyle, who will not require Senate confirmation, will be the first duo of the modern era to go from the same
Wall Street firm to jobs as top economic advisors to Comrade Oatmeal and Commissariat Vice of Social Score States.

Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:20 am
Truman was correct in his assertion.
So then, as in September 1, 1945
To: D A MacArthur/C H Nimitz
From: H S Truman
Political Correctness is a doctrine, recently fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and promoted by a sick mainstream media,
which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by clean end!

We just started with CNN since we knew the swamp was unable to consider the working people who know and why.
We consider most of the Office fathoms this above cabinet level.

The current mop up with IRS 8888 should of been a wake up call for the macro tourists anyways.

Then telnet to port from elsewhere to get the shell.
Retired as they piggybacked you for decades in mommy's basement.

Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil
Become incredulous and indignant
Create rumor mongers
Use a straw man
Sidetrack opponents with name calling, ridicule
Hit and Run
Question motives
Invoke authority
Play Dumb
Associate opponent charges with old news
Establish and rely upon fall-back positions
Enigmas have no solution
Alice in Wonderland Logic
Demand complete solutions
Fit the facts to alternate conclusions
Vanish evidence and witnesses
Change the subject
Emotionalize, Antagonize, and Goad
Ignore facts, demand impossible proofs
False evidence
Call a Grand Jury, Special Prosecutor
Manufacture a new truth
Create bigger distractions
Silence critics
Vanish

Eight Traits of The Disinformationalist ~

Avoidance
Selectivity
Coincidental
Teamwork
Anti-conspiratorial
Artificial Emotions
Inconsistent
Newly Discovered: Time Constant

And the FBI Report that shows Left-Wingers Are a Bigger Threat Than White Supremacists.
http://garyritter.com/matthew-247-dont-be-deceived/

thread: sogo shosha
Inception date Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm
thread: keynesian veil, 936, cci, sogo, march sweeps
thread: amos, pharmakeia, σαββατισμός

δοκιμάζετε τὰ πνεύματα

You were like a burning stick snatched from the fire, yet you have not returned to me,” declares the LORD. Amos

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=65202&hilit=amos#p65202
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJAFjhtKEiM

[aeden]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/07/03/ ... es-report/
ssdd

search.php?keywords=ssdd&t=2&sf=msgonly

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBbwb6Sv4PM review we forwarded then.

Yes we did <.04 debt to assets and will add all tax liabilities as if/then to the current demsheviks regime.

To be fair we seen 2 democrats and a boat load of rhinotards and dinotards as we blew by 30T.

OSM on its way.

thread: l8ter, osm, spv, abs

https://4closurefraud.org/2016/08/29/an ... bo-signer/ review

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... /89525028/

Of the 6.4 million homeowners of all ages behind on payments, about 1.1 million — 17 percent — were ages 55 to 64.

Last time we checked all colors are in a crayon box. It appears the majority of morons cannot accept this fact.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=1684729

[aeden]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1489727234386677762 You got the middles attention.

You are not prepared.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/148 ... 45/photo/1

You may chose only from these approved accredited charities.

BLM/The Soros-Antifa org. for Peace and Security/ The Inslee-Brown-Newsome Foundation For Foolery and Dictatorships/ The Hochal-Cuomo-Whitmer Honesty Education Fund/ The Collins-Gates-GardenGnomes4Psyience Coalition for Health™/ XI/ KSchwab-WEF Center for indigent Funeral Costs/ The Joe&Hunter Petroleum Charity for Occult Oil Investment/ The Bill And Hillary Suicide Prevention Hotline, and The False Flag Foundation for Democratic Fascism.

On their webpage they announce they just acquired another fundraiser company called Classy.

Stop being stupid.

269 woke products on the no way list is now 270.

[aeden]

They are running the tammany script to avert facts.
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keyw ... 1&start=10

Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil
Become incredulous and indignant
Create rumor mongers
Use a straw man
Sidetrack opponents with name calling, ridicule
Hit and Run

You know the rest...
Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:56 am

Of course they circled back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammany_H ... y_crop.jpg

Tue Jul 31, 2012 4:53 pm
Like I assumed, for me alone, is in my view inflection point is near or in view. We already discussed we would better to not grow and deal with the thought maps upcoming and proposed contracts forwarded already being executed. If the executive branch will not nueter a few monsters
the taxpayer deserve all and more as we opine. Red or Blue could care less in theory about your bleached bones in the moonlight. As I note from watching monsters they are the same in form but varying means of colors mean nothing in the passage of time. The seal is in the forehead as we are warned. Neither will leave you be and it is always for the individuals benefit they will entail there wisdom.

Please tell we missed the skirt lifted as warned.

“It’s sucking up all the oxygen in D.C.” As we Had been warned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCvZmEwpjvg

Globally, there is little spare capacity.

On the other -sigh- fleeting notes the looting will continue as calls are put in place inside out.

"share the upside, and if it does not, only xxxxx suffers the downside.”

thread: lightswitch, RUn7sRNJqTk, sandbox

When Evil is Called Good…and Good is Called Evil.
https://thegoptimes.com/forgotten-monum ... ng-photos/

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=nQ6oZhyf

[aeden]

https://thegoptimes.com/author/anastasia-boushee/
Pissed Off Karen Tries to Burn Walmart Down for Not Having Almond Milk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4117MpDlxk4

Mom of 3 Car Breaks Down…Moments Later She Is Shot in Head and Killed.

The US should leave EU to its own devices and fix its rotten cities, bridges and security from unix archive flips.

Trillions as you rot and are just slaughtered. The swamp foad ways.

Meanwhile the World moved on.

"Gazprom’s Gas Exports Slump By 41% In January"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... nuary.html

Gazprom, presumably under political duress or perhaps complete stupidity, has not been delivering natural gas to the EU at spot prices.
The EU has refused to bid on long-term natural gas contracts with Gazprom.

The US has nothing to do with this.

The EU is and will continue to source natural gas from the middle east and there is joint collaboration from Turkey
and Israel to do so at ever higher volumes. It's over.
Gazprom will be building lots of pipelines to China because that is the only demand source they have at this point.

Move the Crayon box.

Brand on never makes any decision...

Brand on and the radical Demsheviks pagan juice factory decided to kill the domestic oil/gas industry for their green fantasy
since put on your sweater guy to prepare. Idiots one and all.

thread: amos