Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

vincecate wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:00 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:00 pm Great one from your blog here (the hyperinflation FAQ), Vince, on a topic I've talked about a lot here ...

Doesn't the deleveraging of huge private debt prevent hyperinflation? Can you have deflation and hyperinflation at the same time?

If you define deflation in terms of the money supply, and you count bonds as part of the money supply, then you predict deflation when people are deleveraging. Many people seem to see deflation coming, by this definition, and think that means you can not get hyperinflation. This is not correct. Hyperinflation is defined in terms of "price inflation" not "money supply including credit". At the start of all hyperinflations bond values crash, so this definition of deflation will be met even as prices are shooting up. So it is common to have deflation and hyperinflation at the same time, initially. If inflation is 5% per month then a bond that pays 2% per year for 10 years is worth less than a penny on the dollar. The bond collapse happens fast and the hyperinflation can go on for awhile. History books will later say it was hyperinflation, not deflation.

Thanks.

That was really from an argument with Mike "Mish" Shedlock like a decade ago. I note these days he seems a bit worried about inflation:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/dont-fal ... -inflation

Another guy I argued with long ago was Cullen Roche. He is basically an MMT guy. He was not at all worried about inflation in 2009 but these days he seems a bit worried:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_BdyuG-6BY&t=861s

Funny what those left leaners tend to do ... (hint hint) it usually makes no sense, is schizophrenic, chaotic, etc.

H the left will bury themselves. We have shown sentiment will bury them.
I will swing trade short as Vega is said now to be showing its ability to see past the bull shit on options now.
They got nothing but worthless non paying ideas and demented, deceived, and destructive lives.
These idiots said pay two grand and we will fly your ass out as the border here is invaded.
Democrat are just another pile of rocks. They will be lucky to keep there heads since they isn't getting out as we say.
Just holly queer movies.
Reports are they are going door to door.
The proof is they will vote for these maniacs mid terms so no hint hint is needed.
We warned these half wits.
Lumber has dropped like a stone and now ore inputs.
These hyper ventilating input cost zealots cannot fathom
encyclical pattern cost just as we seen before.
They can over pay not me.

Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:46 pm
The "Real" Real Yield Is -4.15%... And We Are Stuck. Tyler
Minsky effect as accumulation of debt by the non-government. Wasting.
As we see point blank the swamp tards are bad at math given current data for alleged home owners.
It will be a catastrophe since the wasting was a feature.
The lost cohort.

The delayed retirement from the last blow up is over as any brains are leaving or watching
these half wits go under now. We will look around after 2024 but will look for asset leveraged that just
blow up hence the Vega cash warning.

aeden wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:06 am Lumber has dropped like a stone and now ore inputs.
These hyper ventilating input cost zealots cannot fathom
encyclical pattern cost just as we seen before.
They can over pay not me.

My guess is there will be wild swings in prices before the supply chains break. Also, prices and availability will vary more widely from place to place. There might be surpluses in one place while none is available in others.

You have seen bear market rallys and dead cats also before.
This wasting was no accident as you well know also from accounts
and commodity chains also.

Restaurant equip dirt cheap and misc again.
An old friend went into to building 2 take out restaurants and retired in 5 years.
We know the failure rates H its is my fifth bear market. Could we be wrong. Of course
and we can list more reasons why than they even know.
Last time as mentioned from the the files here eighty percent did not listen and got wiped out
meaning some lost more than a decade. They lost it all and are American wage slaves.
https://www.biddergy.com/

Your example of lumber is good.

Wild swings in prices. Out of control Fed disregarding laws of economics and human nature = out of control markets.

aeden wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:48 am restaurant equip dirt cheap and misc.
https://www.biddergy.com/

There are pictures of school buses on the front page. With the collapse in the birth rate, how many schools and equipment that these idiots overbuilt and overpaid for with borrowed money will have to be shut and auctioned off over the next 20 years?

I drove by an elementary school in my neighborhood that was built recently. It looks more like a Federal prison than a school.

I have noted 4 CRT districts imploding and idiots that voted the millage
for hopelessly brain dead Marxist running it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -americans
Dumb asses like CNN should all be sent to them yesterday.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:51 am Your example of lumber is good.

By Fred data lumber is still up more than 50% in the last 2 years. This is the best example Powell has of why we should not worry about inflation.

I am wondering if futures and commodities prices for lumber the real "transient" prices while the real world price of lumber is a more obvious upward trend?

2 x 4 x 10' #1 Southern Yellow Pine Construction/Framing Lumber
(Actual Size 1-1/2" x 3-1/2" x 10')
Model Number: 1028036 Menards ® SKU: 1028036
Now $5.95 per stick was $11.99

May 31 2005 was last time on our unit review.
Life of contract historical charts for Lumber (LB, CME)

I may lock a few unit bundles late September.
Last package bundle priced was $5495.00 for a delayed lumber price quote.
If/then will may order two for 10K have not decided yet.

http://www.amishcountrybarn.com/zone_map.htm zone references

As we told you when they talk stupid charge them double.