Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

vincecate wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am Higgie, are you still ok?
Yes, but I'm not able to post to the forum as often as I did a few months ago.

The reason for that is I've started an arbitrage business buying and selling goods that are shooting up and down in price due to the Fed's out of control monetary policies. It's sort of like bot smashing except I identify goods that are in temporary surplus somewhere that I think will quickly go to scarcity somewhere else. So far I've had some success with it and I think it will do better and better as the economy goes further and further off the rails. What I'm envisioning in the not too distant future is being like one of the suitcase peddlers Dmitry Orlov talked about who were the only sources of some goods after the Soviet Union collapsed.

I'll post a Maximum Ruin update soon, probably tonight. I'm still short the same amount and my account is down about 4% on the year after being up 8% in April before I went short. One purpose of the arbitrage business is to make sure I can maintain my short positions and even increase them if the stock market bubble continues to hold together. Also, I plan to get back to bot smashing at some point and will post updates on that when I do.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: New Business
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:13 pm > The reason for that is I've started an arbitrage business buying
> and selling goods that are shooting up and down in price due to
> the Fed's out of control monetary policies. It's sort of like bot
> smashing except I identify goods that are in temporary surplus
> somewhere that I think will quickly go to scarcity somewhere else.
> So far I've had some success with it and I think it will do better
> and better as the economy goes further and further off the rails.
> What I'm envisioning in the not too distant future is being like
> one of the suitcase peddlers Dmitry Orlov talked about who were
> the only sources of some goods after the Soviet Union
> collapsed.
Soooo, I assume your new business has a web site? And where might we
find that?
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:13 pm Yes, but I'm not able to post to the forum as often as I did a few months ago.

The reason for that is I've started an arbitrage business buying and selling goods that are shooting up and down in price due to the Fed's out of control monetary policies. It's sort of like bot smashing except I identify goods that are in temporary surplus somewhere that I think will quickly go to scarcity somewhere else. So far I've had some success with it and I think it will do better and better as the economy goes further and further off the rails. What I'm envisioning in the not too distant future is being like one of the suitcase peddlers Dmitry Orlov talked about who were the only sources of some goods after the Soviet Union collapsed.

I'll post a Maximum Ruin update soon, probably tonight. I'm still short the same amount and my account is down about 4% on the year after being up 8% in April before I went short. One purpose of the arbitrage business is to make sure I can maintain my short positions and even increase them if the stock market bubble continues to hold together. Also, I plan to get back to bot smashing at some point and will post updates on that when I do.
Glad you are still ok. I don't think this is going much higher, and maybe past the peak. Another CPI and PPI report or two and I think we just have to be headed down.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Container shipping price index is up another 2% in the last week:

"Drewry’s composite World Container index increased marginally by 2% or $192 to reach $9,613.28 per 40ft container, 360% higher than the same week in 2020.

This is the 18th consecutive week of increases."

I love how 2% per week is "increased marginally". :-) At a rate of inflation equal to over 100% per year, but down from 360%, so just "marginal". Kind of like "transitory" I guess.

Also, "Drewry expects rates to increase further in the coming week."


https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-a ... -by-drewry
Last edited by vincecate on Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

This isn't exactly what I'm doing, but it's the same general idea as applied to the current situation in the US. I've talked about Dmitry Orlov's Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century many times in past posts.

From

Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century

(PART THREE OF THREE)

By Dmitry Orlov

Often when people hear about the possibility of economic collapse, they wonder: "Let's suppose that the U.S. economy is going to collapse soon. Why is this even worth thinking about, if there is nothing I can do about it?" Well, I am not a professional investment adviser, so I risk nothing by making some suggestions for how one can collapse-proof one's investment portfolio.

The nuclear scare gave rise to the archetype of the American Survivalist, holed up in the hills, with a bomb shelter, a fantastic number of tins of spam, and an assortment of guns and plentiful ammunition with which to fight off neighbors from further downhill, or perhaps just to shoot beer-cans when the neighbors come over for beer and spamwiches. And, of course, an American flag. This sort of survivalism is about as good as burying yourself alive, I suppose.

The idea of stockpiling is not altogether bad, though. Stockpiling food is, of course, a rotten idea, literally. But certain manufactured items are certainly worth considering. Suppose you have a retirement account, or some mutual funds. And suppose you feel reasonably certain that by the time you are scheduled to retire it won't be enough to buy a cup of coffee. And suppose you realize that you can currently buy a lot of good stuff that has a long shelf life and will be needed, and valuable, far into the future. And suppose, further, that you have a small amount of storage space: a few hundred square feet. Now, what are you going to do? Sit by and watch your savings evaporate? Or take the tax hit and invest in things that are not composed of vapor?

Once the cash machines are out of cash, the stock ticker stops ticking, and the retail chain breaks down, people will still have basic needs. There will be flea markets and private barter arrangements to serve these needs, using whatever local token of exchange is available; bundles of $100 bills, bits of gold chain, packs of cigarettes, or what have you. It's not a bad idea to own a few of everything you will need, but you should invest in things you will be able to trade for things you will need. Think of consumer necessities that require high technology and have a long shelf life. Here are some suggestions to get you started: drugs (over-the-counter and prescription); razor blades; condoms. Rechargeable batteries (and solar chargers) are sure to become a prized item (Ni-MH are the less toxic ones). Toiletries, such as good soap, will be luxury items. Fill some shipping containers, nitrogen-pack them so that nothing rusts or rots, and store them somewhere.

After the Soviet collapse, there swiftly appeared a category of itinerant merchants who provided people with access to imported products. To procure their wares, these people had to travel abroad, to Poland, to China, to Turkey, on trains, carrying goods back and forth in their baggage. They would exchange a suitcase of Russian-made watches for a suitcase of other, more useful consumer products, such as shampoo or razor blades. They would have to grease the palms of officials along their route, and were often robbed. There was a period of time when these people, called "chelnoki," which is Russian for "shuttles," were the only source of consumer products. The products were often factory rejects, damaged, or past their sell-by date, but this did not make them any less valuable. Based on their example, it is possible to predict which items will be in high demand, and to stockpile these items ahead of time, as a hedge against economic collapse. Note that chelnoki had intact economies to trade with, accessible by train - while this is not guaranteed to be the case in the U.S.

A stockpile of this sort, in a walkable, socially stable place, where you know everybody, where you have some close friends and some family, where you own your shelter and some land free and clear, and where you can grow most of your own food, and barter for the rest, should enable you to survive economic collapse without too much trouble. And, who knows, maybe you will even find happiness there.
https://www.copvcia.com/free/ww3/071805 ... part3.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:19 pm ** 19-Aug-2021 World View: New Business
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:13 pm > The reason for that is I've started an arbitrage business buying
> and selling goods that are shooting up and down in price due to
> the Fed's out of control monetary policies. It's sort of like bot
> smashing except I identify goods that are in temporary surplus
> somewhere that I think will quickly go to scarcity somewhere else.
> So far I've had some success with it and I think it will do better
> and better as the economy goes further and further off the rails.
> What I'm envisioning in the not too distant future is being like
> one of the suitcase peddlers Dmitry Orlov talked about who were
> the only sources of some goods after the Soviet Union
> collapsed.
Soooo, I assume your new business has a web site? And where might we
find that?

I don't have a website. I have Amazon, Ebay, etc., seller accounts and dump most of the stuff off there. Though I expect that to change when things more seriously go off the rails, whenever that happens.

You might remember my post of a few years ago where I talked about how to start a business. I'll find that and repost it.
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:04 am The third part is to get ready to start a post collapse consumer products necessities business that outmaneuvers and undercuts the big national brands, as described in this post from 2012. I started working on that last month.
Higgenbotham wrote:These would be my thoughts on starting a business.

First, get ready for a post-collapse world. In the current pre-collapse world, existing businesses are conditioned to operating in the pre-collapse environment. They will be lost post-collapse. This is when the prepared entrepreneur can step in.

To get ready for the post-collapse world, travel to a third world country or to a country that has already collapsed and observe how business is conducted. Talk to the locals to get an idea of what business conditions were like pre-collapse and try to envision how the conditions in the US that are different pre-collapse will change the post-collapse environment vis-a-vis the country you are observing. I chose to travel to one of the poorest areas of the former USSR to make observations. It was formerly pretty well off because it was a manufacturing area and not too far from Moscow.

Begin by pilot testing an idea with a very limited amount of capital at risk. My thought would be less than 10% of capital should be risked on the whole initial operation. Operate on a cash basis and under the radar. Let's say as I mentioned a few pages back that a formula for laundry soap has been obtained and someone wants to make an attempt to manufacture this product. I would not rush headlong into buying equipment, renting space, and other things a conventional business person might do today. Instead, pay a contract manufacturing outfit to mix some up on a small scale, then figure out how to sell it. Observe what equipment the contract manufacturer is using and do some research because that equipment may be picked up for pennies on the dollar at auction when the bankruptcies roll in. If it's thought that the future of America will most resemble Detroit, Michigan or Las Vegas, Nevada, and there are probably better places to consider but people can understand what I am talking about by mentioning those places, take the product there and live there a few months. Figure out what works best to move it in the post-collapse world of strip mall flea markets, craigslist, or whatever is envisioned. See if customers match the envisioned post-collapse profile and find out what else they need to buy where they would seek alternatives to the current distribution channels, in order to save a few bucks or which may be shut down, post-collapse. Probably enough said, but that's my general idea.
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:26 pm This isn't exactly what I'm doing, but it's the same general idea as applied to the current situation in the US.
Sounds good. I have started spending more time on my http://seastead.ai idea. I hope to really build something in the next year.
If the world falls apart, as we expect, I think there will be a market for Seasteads. In any case, I would like to have the option of just chilling on the ocean far from anyone.
aeden
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

We started some time back as indicated.
Closed loop. DCF is holding. No debts, no doubts, no problems.
We started with dirt and ancient principles.
I no longer need a web site or class C licenses.
We left them behind since as indicated it took them twice as long
so am half as smart.
Truly these swamp lunatics as all will meet Him.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:32 pm
John wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:19 pm ** 19-Aug-2021 World View: New Business

Soooo, I assume your new business has a web site? And where might we
find that?

I don't have a website. I have Amazon, Ebay, etc., seller accounts and dump most of the stuff off there. Though I expect that to change when things more seriously go off the rails, whenever that happens.
This is my Amazon seller account. I opened it June 1 and my first sale was July 21. The products and selling channels will be different post collapse but this is what I'm doing now to get my feet wet.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Maximum Ruin Update


I've remained 129% short and still haven't adjusted for what is now many many weeks. My account is down 4% on the year now. It was tempting to increase shorts but I didn't do it.

At this point, I don't think Jerome Powell will be able to counterfeit enough money to ruin me, but we'll have to see.

The part I cut out above the YTD Change is the dollar change YTD and the number that is shown in parenthesis is the percentage that the account is down YTD. The line is account value since going short in April.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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