Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="aedens"]Gordo » Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:08 am

Tacitus wrote the Histories before the Annals, events preceded the Histories and together they formed a account from Augustus to the death of Domitian. Though most has been lost, what remains is a invaluable record. If memory serves correct "Never attribute to malice what stupidity will explain" He was a very diverse man but understood timing in regard to his longevity .

IMPORTANT: NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES ARE PILING UP

I do not disagree. Given the Political Economy's attributes what vigalante will provoke the trapdoor event?
Also, I would not disagree on the effects of gradualism pulling it under a undertow event.
I feel more people will vote there pocketbook given the inability of the Senate to avert crisis so
what will change. I seen Timmy get verbally accosted from the same Gentleman who was part of the problem also.
If we can keep CPI lazer focused at zero this will be the balance sheet kick the can repair time for
the moral hazzard incest thought that pervades from leverages which triggered my opinion there
cascade to predicated takeover until the Voter who is complicant by percentage as the Cult status quo of
crisis teams to whit engendor to save the day in abject hyprocracy. I still feel inclined this ruse will be the
stain FDR mirrored and lamented to endure when the Court was impelled to defend the letter and the circular logic
these pragmatic ideological mutants carry's the day on the back of the people.
Already the left limply asserts the Independant's are spurious and lacking regard to spite the lucid bent of mind
to trade reciprocity and per capita reality's. Pragamatic solution's need press no further than the elements of
quantity and quality of no gratitudes but balanced policy aborted so very long ago to discredit.

We are adulterated to be brief.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/threa ... ctment.pdf

We used to give a free acounts when Students got in and we hot patched the kernel
to provide better service. If we sent a bot back kiss there firmware good by and
yea, it was obvious on there intent so we took measures.
Thats the problem today since solutions are event driven.
I am not saying it correct for them to do that but better internal's per se.

A little pride buised is better than blatant taxpayer cost.

Now something that focuses internals check out the cash flow here and we ponder our fate as serf's ad nauseum http://www.commoncause.org/site/apps/nl ... 7D&notoc=1

Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel and a professor at Harvard University, has been the leading advocate in favor of the CFPA. "At the end of the day, industry lobbyists try hard to invent myths and make things sound confusing to intimidate the public and to keep policymakers from acting," said Warren. "The CFPA would put someone in Washington – someone with real power – who cares about customers."


Hmm, since when do we hold bank's without sceptical regard and down right contempt in any era?

Cicero recognized that the end of the Republic was almost certain. He stated that "the Republic, the Senate, the law courts are mere ciphers and that not one of us has any constitutional position at all."
In the season of this time you have abandoned reason and yourself.
Black ICE
Wed Nov 18, 2009 6:17 pm
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 2140#p4372
ICE, an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate "dark pool" trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they NEVER take delivery, per se. They just ratchet up the price with leveraged speculation using your TARP money.
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"A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all." Tacitus
reviresco » Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:23 pm
With our stock, bond and other financial markets in the throes of algorithmic trading in pools both “dark” and clear, and behemoth positions are front run and exited in nanoseconds, we now learn that traders seek to apply these same strategies and mathematical engines to the commodities markets.
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LONDON (MarketWatch) — The IntercontinentalExchange is probing trades in U.S. dollar index futures that briefly showed a massive 9% jump on Friday morning. The lead contract surged as high as 82.18, up from a 75.38 close on Thursday. Such a move was improbable given that in spot markets, the dollar’s moves against major currencies such as the euro were limited to about 1%. See Currencies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-in ... 2009-11-20

Analysts say the purchase of products for floating storage, often a financial strategy where the buyer is able to sell the products for a profit at a later date, has created the illusion of improved demand.
"By the end of the winter there is likely to be as much distillates afloat as in the total U.S. at the end of winter 2007, and we expect that it will be more and more difficult for some of the Wall Street commodity banks to avoid mentioning the subject and to continue to hide the floating storage fill-up as 'demand from emerging economies,'" Olivier Jakob, an oil analyst at Petromatrix, said in a research note on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/globalMa ... EA20091120

Moral hazzard: Somebody wanted delivery and some one said no....
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Quick Sand
Liquid war: Welcome to Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KC26Ag01.html

Consolidation Period Structural Alliances movements.

On September 16, I exited a short position in the S&P futures with an 8% loss at a price of 1063 (futures were/are priced a bit lower than the S&P cash). I'd been looking for a max of 1080 and had planned to hold on to that point, but it was becoming apparent that 1080 would likely be exceeded. At the time, I mentioned that I was done speculating. Anyway, today I put 2/3 of the short position back on at 1088 and will do the other 1/3 if a downtrend can gain a little momentum below 1080. I won't give this too much room as I didn't and still don't want to lose more than 10%, but this looks like a good low risk place to give it a try.

It looks like a few of you who have been short are still hanging on. I'd seen some technical evidence the market was starting to crack this week, but waited for a bit of confirmation. One thing I'd noticed that didn't get any comment until today (that I saw) was the Dow gapped over the 50% retrace of the entire move down off the high (10,334) on Monday. It held above that level for 3 days, then dropped below it. Meanwhile, the S&P was unable to reach its 50% retrace at 1121. Seeing that this happened during an op ex week which normally has an upward bias, I thought it significant. I'm also wondering if any more mileage can be attained even if the dollar does go lower. Interest rate spreads look to be as tight as they are going to get in this environment, etc. I read a recent comment by one of the Connecticut hedge funds saying that their models show GDP growth reaching 4.5% in Q2 2010 as a justification for higher stock prices. It would seem to me that stock prices are already factoring in slightly higher growth than 4.5% and basing purchases on these kinds of projections seems to be a bit of a reach.

Higgenbotham wrote:On September 16, I exited a short position in the S&P futures with an 8% loss at a price of 1063 (futures were/are priced a bit lower than the S&P cash). I'd been looking for a max of 1080 and had planned to hold on to that point, but it was becoming apparent that 1080 would likely be exceeded. At the time, I mentioned that I was done speculating. Anyway, today I put 2/3 of the short position back on at 1088 and will do the other 1/3 if a downtrend can gain a little momentum below 1080. I won't give this too much room as I didn't and still don't want to lose more than 10%, but this looks like a good low risk place to give it a try.

It looks like a few of you who have been short are still hanging on. I'd seen some technical evidence the market was starting to crack this week, but waited for a bit of confirmation. One thing I'd noticed that didn't get any comment until today (that I saw) was the Dow gapped over the 50% retrace of the entire move down off the high (10,334) on Monday. It held above that level for 3 days, then dropped below it. Meanwhile, the S&P was unable to reach its 50% retrace at 1121. Seeing that this happened during an op ex week which normally has an upward bias, I thought it significant. I'm also wondering if any more mileage can be attained even if the dollar does go lower. Interest rate spreads look to be as tight as they are going to get in this environment, etc. I read a recent comment by one of the Connecticut hedge funds saying that their models show GDP growth reaching 4.5% in Q2 2010 as a justification for higher stock prices. It would seem to me that stock prices are already factoring in slightly higher growth than 4.5% and basing purchases on these kinds of projections seems to be a bit of a reach.

Well, as we discussed loosely my lenses blurred at SP1090 but given the climate I cannot say. With the vote on health care saturday, flip a coin. We clearly understand the edge will tip down because of fundamentals lost for said reason below. Obama wants to bend the fiscal trend down as stated and the reality is he should embrace per capita economics on net balances that good trading partners do understand anyway. The technicals we seek are blurred from fundamentals the leftards are erroding to be polite. IMO, consolidation periods leads to core focus on intellectual investor moves. If the vote is no and no true reform the dollar will embrace the economic gravity it asserts. The executive branch needs to set tempo to protect the citizens from myopic legislative body of kick the can disconnects to reason since we clearly understand there dismissal to "Nothing of leadership caliber" and to contract's of the path to logical conclusion it deserves on monetary disipline. The great state of Louisiana vote was bought outright it appears so discord will ensue since I linger in the mindset this is a ruse to buy time as we have seen to acountability to it fragile members.
"But the section's purpose is indisputable: to deliver $100 million or more in federal funds to the state. And in the process clear the way for one of three moderate Democratic fence-sitters -- Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas are the others -- to help propel the legislation past its initial hurdle in a crucial Saturday vote."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moderate- ... et=&ccode=
On 10:44 pm EST, Friday November 20, 2009
Nelson, Landrieu and Lincoln emerged several days ago as the last public holdouts among 58 Democrats and two independents whose votes Majority Leader Harry Reid and the White House must have to overcome the Republicans' attempt to strangle the bill before serious debate can begin.
"Reading it is of little assistance. "Special adjustment to FMAP Determination for Certain States recovering from a Major Disaster" is the title, and about two pages of similarly indecipherable legalese follows."

According to the Congressional Budget Office, it will send an additional $100 million to Louisiana to help it cover costs for Medicaid, the federal-state health care program for the poor.

I can kill the real easy since the smell test we already know so can it pass the piss test to save, oh lets say $142 billion a year on illegal drugs, which is fully 44 percent of global consumption if the numbers are correct.
It is a political economy and laced with malinvestment which will run it course. The People of the Letter seek reason only. This I feel is the eye of the storm we have been waiting for and seen coming from a GD view. Further down road the Voter's will seal the future anyway to GDP decline assuming they choose poorly and lost focus to contract and law of the markets.
This is in direct context to default of the numerous States fiscal body of there true fiscal health sanity in decline across the Nation.

America is the world’s largest cocaine consumer, and about 90 percent of what is sold in the United States comes from Mexico. In fact, Americans spend $142 billion a year on illegal drugs, which is fully 44 percent of global consumption. And most of the distribution networks into and throughout the U.S. are dominated by Mexican criminal groups, according the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs.
I think this sums it up to the gravity to collapse. Mexico has city's asking for United Nations help on law enforcement as we speak to prevent the border city of Ciudad Juarez from tipping so how can we expect the border to hold those who seek stability when none is available on either side from those given to said ethics. I am sure this will be blotted from the press as speculation but we will see soon enough to confirm this failure to crime strangling the continent.
Drug test all recipients will keep the libtards howling about how they can save the country in there delusional dreams of reality as they cut screenings.
“Clearly, we do not view democracy's victory as preordained. We do, however, hold that modernization is conducive to democracy -- and that the emergence of a knowledge society makes successful democratization increasingly probable. Knowledge societies bring high levels of existential security, which in turn lead to a growing emphasis on self-expression values. Likewise, the experience of thinking for oneself in one's daily work tends to spill over into the political realm. Democracy and a knowledge society are therefore mutually reinforcing: a knowledge society functions best with the free information flows and the nonhierarchical organizational structure of democracy.”
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ ... ing?page=5

Higgenbotham wrote: It looks like a few of you who have been short are still hanging on.

Am still short via 2X inverse index fund. Currently down about 16% -- this is money initially allocated for speculation... so...

Will not bail now, I don't want to miss the big move down, which I feel certain will come -- the question is how soon and from what level. I figure worst case is, if market goes much higher, only getting back even after 6-18 months.

Could be the opportunity of a lifetime... Worth the risk.

Bill

Michigan Sen. Carl Levin (right), a Democrat and the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is arguing that wealthy taxpayers should perhaps shoulder the cost of sending additional troops in Afghanistan.

In an interview for Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital With Al Hunt," the senator suggests funding additional troops with an "additional income tax to the upper brackets, folks earning more than $200,000 or $250,000."

"They have done incredibly well, and I think that it's important that we pay for it if we possibly can," Levin said, according to Bloomberg. He also called for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to provide half of the new soldiers sent to Afghanistan.

White House Budget Director Peter Orszag has put the cost of each additional troop at $1 million.


One month before the Government can conscript the young men of the nation -- it must conscript capital and industry and labor. Let the officers and the directors and the high-powered executives of our armament factories and our munitions makers and our shipbuilders and our airplane builders and the manufacturers of all the other things that provide profit in war time as well as the bankers and the speculators, be conscripted -- to get $30 a month, the same wage as the lads in the trenches get.
Let the workers in these plants get the same wages -- all the workers, all presidents, all executives, all directors, all managers, all bankers -- yes, and all generals and all admirals and all officers and all politicians and all government office holders -- everyone in the nation be restricted to a total monthly income not to exceed that paid to the soldier in the trenches! Let all these kings and tycoons and masters of business and all those workers in industry and all our senators and governors and majors pay half of their monthly $30 wage to their families and pay war risk insurance and buy Liberty Bonds.
Why shouldn't they?
They aren't running any risk of being killed or of having their bodies mangled or their minds shattered. They aren't sleeping in muddy trenches. They aren't hungry. The soldiers are!
Give capital and industry and labor thirty days to think it over and you will find, by that time, there will be no war. That will smash the war racket -- that and nothing else.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/war ... et.html#c4
Smedley Darlington Butler
• Born: West Chester, Pa., July 30, 1881
• Educated: Haverford School
• Married: Ethel C. Peters, of Philadelphia, June 30, 1905
• Awarded two congressional medals of honor:
1. capture of Vera Cruz, Mexico, 1914
2. capture of Ft. Riviere, Haiti, 1917
• Distinguished service medal, 1919
• Major General - United States Marine Corps
• Retired Oct. 1, 1931
• On leave of absence to act as director of Dept. of Safety, Philadelphia, 1932
• Lecturer -- 1930's
• Republican Candidate for Senate, 1932
• Died at Naval Hospital, Philadelphia, June 21, 1940

Professing to be wise, they became fools http://nasb.scripturetext.com/romans/1.htm Excuse the aspect of breaking protocol of the forums of GD

Short away I have no idea on the market direction nor do they....

wvbill wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: It looks like a few of you who have been short are still hanging on.

Am still short via 2X inverse index fund. Currently down about 16% -- this is money initially allocated for speculation... so...

Will not bail now, I don't want to miss the big move down, which I feel certain will come -- the question is how soon and from what level. I figure worst case is, if market goes much higher, only getting back even after 6-18 months.

Could be the opportunity of a lifetime... Worth the risk.

Bill

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/
Tech indicator FYI - be carefull good hunting guys have tight stops but bears are in a world of hurt to date since stocks are for rent until it pops.
Given volume deviation " sediment" value I smell bear meat. If im wrong you may trash me with no mercy. Alot of money parked not in equity as
noted in forums.

20-Nov-09 1,094.66 1,094.66 1,086.81 1,091.38 3,751,230,000 1,091.38
19-Nov-09 1,106.44 1,106.44 1,088.40 1,094.90 4,178,030,000 1,094.90
18-Nov-09 1,109.44 1,111.10 1,102.70 1,109.80 4,293,340,000 1,109.80
17-Nov-09 1,109.22 1,110.52 1,102.19 1,110.32 3,824,070,000 1,110.32
16-Nov-09 1,094.13 1,113.69 1,094.13 1,109.30 4,565,850,000 1,109.30
13-Nov-09 1,087.59 1,097.79 1,085.33 1,093.48 3,792,610,000 1,093.48
12-Nov-09 1,098.31 1,101.97 1,084.90 1,087.24 4,160,250,000 1,087.24
11-Nov-09 1,096.04 1,105.37 1,093.81 1,098.51 4,286,700,000 1,098.51
10-Nov-09 1,091.86 1,096.42 1,087.40 1,093.01 4,394,770,000 1,093.01
9-Nov-09 1,072.31 1,093.19 1,072.31 1,093.08 4,460,030,000 1,093.08
6-Nov-09 1,064.95 1,071.48 1,059.32 1,069.30 4,277,130,000 1,069.30
5-Nov-09 1,047.30 1,066.65 1,047.30 1,066.63 4,848,350,000 1,066.63
4-Nov-09 1,047.14 1,061.00 1,045.15 1,046.50 5,635,510,000 1,046.50
3-Nov-09 1,040.92 1,046.36 1,033.94 1,045.41 5,487,500,000 1,045.41
2-Nov-09 1,036.18 1,052.18 1,029.38 1,042.88 6,202,640,000 1,042.8

JAMES GALBRAITH: They let all of this run, because they were getting a superficially stronger economy out of it. The ownership society, all that was a scam, basically, designed to lure people who could never afford these mortgages into accepting them. And yes, I think they, any rational person, certainly people in the industry, knew that this was not going to last. There was a little industry code, I've learned, IBGYBG. "I'll be gone. You'll be gone."

Do you think they did not know? Obama has a leash called TBTF but it is easier to manage that way silly taxpayers. Really if you cannot see who the leash is clicked to thats your problem. America is the world’s largest cocaine consumer, and about 90 percent of what is sold in the United States comes from Mexico. In fact, Americans spend $142 billion a year on illegal drugs, which is fully 44 percent of global consumption. And most of the distribution networks into and throughout the U.S. are dominated by Mexican criminal groups, according the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs.
I think this sums it up to the gravity to collapse. Mexico has city's asking for United Nations help on law enforcement as we speak to prevent the border city of Ciudad Juarez from tipping so how can we expect the border to hold those who seek stability when none is available on either side from those given to said ethics. I am sure this will be blotted from the press as speculation but we will see soon enough to confirm this failure to crime strangling the continent.
Drug test all recipients will keep the libtards howling about how they can save the country in there delusional dreams of reality as they cut screenings.
“Clearly, we do not view democracy's victory as preordained. We do, however, hold that modernization is conducive to democracy -- and that the emergence of a knowledge society makes successful democratization increasingly probable. Knowledge societies bring high levels of existential security, which in turn lead to a growing emphasis on self-expression values. Likewise, the experience of thinking for oneself in one's daily work tends to spill over into the political realm. Democracy and a knowledge society are therefore mutually reinforcing: a knowledge society functions best with the free information flows and the nonhierarchical organizational structure of democracy.”
Nobody wants to invest since there is what headwinds facing business? "ideological" They will starve you serfs out until you come to your senses America and only to suffice to the Politial Economy as pragmatic reality as always for thousands of years. The last item is to sacrifice the fed for survival of their TBTFs which they could later evolve into another central bank down the road so is Andrew Jackson going to be dug up? Would Obama cross the river since you can only do that once. No, he would not since we know there useless and cherrfull idiots from both party's Ilk and also his bent of mind plus the sheep are to numb. And where does capital go according to law of economics, need I ask? The bond spike neg so of course some assets where balanced for the Holiday numbers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... cility.pdf

http://shopyield.com/2009/11/20/they-co ... ry-policy/

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/ne ... etter2.pdf

A couple days ago, I had noted, "I'm also wondering if any more mileage can be attained (referring to upward movement in stocks) even if the dollar does go lower."

Denninger has a detailed comment on this subject:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... pdate.html

Be very cautious of any thesis you have on continued advancement of the market based on "dollar depreciation."

These have been my thoughts lately also. Seems to me that any further decline in the dollar could be panicky and disorderly, which could actually cause panic in the stock market rather than the inverse correlation seen these past few months.

At the same time, as this correlation started breaking, 3 month t-bill rates have gone to zero again.

Higgenbotham wrote:A couple days ago, I had noted, "I'm also wondering if any more mileage can be attained (referring to upward movement in stocks) even if the dollar does go lower."

Denninger has a detailed comment on this subject:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... pdate.html

Be very cautious of any thesis you have on continued advancement of the market based on "dollar depreciation."

These have been my thoughts lately also. Seems to me that any further decline in the dollar could be panicky and disorderly, which could actually cause panic in the stock market rather than the inverse correlation seen these past few months.

At the same time, as this correlation started breaking, 3 month t-bill rates have gone to zero again.

I agree, but the sad thing thing is we are seeing uptick since consolidations are well underway.
I concur on the thesis aspect he conveyed. Being a Holiday week per se, the turbulance should be
low. I will hold my position since we are supply.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

CBOE GAINERS AND LOSERS - Equity Options
Gainers Losers Unchanged Total
8100 13982 2146 24228

Daily Open Interest (as-of-close on 11/19/2009)
CBOE Total Open Interest
Call 171205487
Put 156526889
Total 327732376

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favo ... =ID1606987