Financial topics

[aedens]

Today I wrote an article with regards to South America's position in their own generational cycle. As I've discussed here and on my blog before, I don't believe the China story is authentic, nor am I particularly enamoured with India. But many South American nations (not all), firmly in generational Awakening eras should provide attractive investments - after global equity markets pop and they get taken down in conjunction, of course.

John, I don't recall you ever focusing on South America. I'd be interested in your opinion on this matter.

http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/11 ... unity.html

Will read thanks for the information... I see there defending there currency as they should on there 1.7:1 peg Brazil
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091102.htm
I have been out of curve also as he observed also. Second order derivitives are being heat mapped i.e. beta risk
so volume is down as observed. Data digging for some time since I stepped out as reported in forum given
dicipline over conviction.

Work hard, keep your mouth shut and good things will happen.
http://www.lifecourse.com/store/catalog ... erdvd.html
My how history is never new....
http://www.lifecourse.com/store/catalog ... place.html

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... oductivity

Read carefully, I was not alone talking to a shadow since if your not in your out $$, so remember discipline over conviction.
I never give up on technicals or fundamantals, but as i stated as observed mine where blurred so i choose to step out
given data points.

By this I mean a large injection of stabilizing cash to one or more parties, possibly related to the recent large bankruptcies. Two of my friends who have been actively trading for more than 20 years between them threw in the towel this week as their patterns and methods are no longer working.

In my observation, this week the market started trading a bit more predictably short term on a minute by minute basis. There were still times where it stopped short of downside targets and turned higher.

Once again, the market is probably looking at employment as a lagging indicator. Problem is, from a generational standpoint, this is probably not like the 1974/5 recession where unemployment did indeed lag (and that is in the memory of living generations that control finance). Today, we have structural problems in the economy that probably can't be papered over. Wages are not rising and consumer credit is falling. The jump in unemployment may be a further indication that stimulus and bailouts are not working. At the same time, the returning predictability of short term market movements may be an indication that reality is catching up to the stock market (just as it is catching up to the labor and credit markets).

[jcsok]

Anyone tired of this yet?

As one person on a board put it:



Crappy dollar good for the market.
Strong dollar good for the market.
Bad news good for the market.
Good news good for the market.
Nobody earning money good for the market.
Continuous bankruptcies good for the market.
Imminent war good for the market.
Government in control of your health good for the market.
Climate change propaganda good for the market.
Massive Wall Street bonuses very good for the market.
Christmas retail to really, really suck good for the market.
Government becoming the nations largest landlord good for the market.

It's all good...

[Higgenbotham]

By this I mean a large injection of stabilizing cash to one or more parties, possibly related to the recent large bankruptcies. Two of my friends who have been actively trading for more than 20 years between them threw in the towel this week as their patterns and methods are no longer working.

Market again not moving normally today.

[John]

Dear Higgie,

By this I mean a large injection of stabilizing cash to one or more parties, possibly related to the recent large bankruptcies. Two of my friends who have been actively trading for more than 20 years between them threw in the towel this week as their patterns and methods are no longer working.

Market again not moving normally today.

What does "moving normally" mean? Does it mean the same as have a large rally?

John

[Higgenbotham]

Dear Higgie,

By this I mean a large injection of stabilizing cash to one or more parties, possibly related to the recent large bankruptcies. Two of my friends who have been actively trading for more than 20 years between them threw in the towel this week as their patterns and methods are no longer working.

Market again not moving normally today.

What does "moving normally" mean? Does it mean the same as have a large rally?

John

Moving normally means there is a certain ebb and flow to the market that is usually seen on a short term basis. For example, if some sell volume comes in, the market will normally correct for a few minutes before moving higher. Today, we're not seeing anything like that. All selling is overwhelmed.

[John]

Dear Higgie,

> Moving normally means there is a certain ebb and flow to the
> market that is usually seen on a short term basis. For example,
> if some sell volume comes in, the market will normally correct for
> a few minutes before moving higher. Today, we're not seeing
> anything like that. All selling is overwhelmed.

That would be the sign of panic buying, I think.

Based on things I've been reading in the last week or two, all
"normal" investors have left the market, and there's no one left but
day traders who use computerized algorithms to compete for short term
gains. Many of them have an "in" with the SEC that gives them a
brief look at trades before they're executed. I agree that there's
nothing "normal" about what's going on, but I would have said the
same thing last week.

John

[John]

The funny thing about what's going on is that even the fig leaf of
"operating earnings" has disappeared -- the P/E ratio based on
operating earnings is up in the 27 range. Not to mention that the
"ordinary" P/E ratio is still up around 100.

The "reason" for optimism that I keep hearing is the 3rd quarter
earnings are higher than expected. Well, that's true. They were
expected to be 35% lower than last year's deflated earnings, but
instead they're only 18% lower. Ummm, let's see: Earnings are down
18%, but stock prices are up 40%. Could someone do that math for me?

There is absolutely no shred of anything that points anywhere but to
a crash.

I tell people that a crash must occur "with 100% certainty," and they
give me a smug look and tell me how I've been proven wrong by the
rally.

I just can't believe how crazy everything has become. At least in
the past few years, I could see how someone could massage the facts
and convince themselves that the market would always go up, but today
there's nothing to massage.

How does one explain this? How does one explain a public insanity
that's so great that even fantasy reasons don't apply?

And on top of that the laughable health care bill that passed the
House this weekend is beyond ridiculous.

By the way, take a quick look at this article:

Will Asia's Real Estate Bubble Burst Soon?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/172279-will-asia-s-real-estate-bubble-burst-soon

It describes how property bubbles are increasing in Singapore, India,
Hong Kong, China and Australia. It's very interesting.

Also, for those of you who like to collect quotes that show what
idiots the people in Washington are, check this out:

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%
http://seekingalpha.com/article/172045-and-bernanke-didn-t-think-unemployment-would-reach-10

John

[wvbill]

Dear Higgie,

> Moving normally means there is a certain ebb and flow to the
> market that is usually seen on a short term basis. For example,
> if some sell volume comes in, the market will normally correct for
> a few minutes before moving higher. Today, we're not seeing
> anything like that. All selling is overwhelmed.

That would be the sign of panic buying, I think.

Based on things I've been reading in the last week or two, all
"normal" investors have left the market, and there's no one left but
day traders who use computerized algorithms to compete for short term
gains. Many of them have an "in" with the SEC that gives them a
brief look at trades before they're executed. I agree that there's
nothing "normal" about what's going on, but I would have said the
same thing last week.

John

I think its "panic manipulation."

Looks to me like the market is ready to break and the "powers to be" are scared to death that any significant down move could turn into an all out crash.

A small (10%) correction and turn around would add credibility to this fake rally, but they are afraid to let it happen...

How long they can keep it up is the question...

Bill

[aedens]

No it is avarice which is a complex definition. Quote from a friend "what problem since DC Market is fine" This was last year all and get the numbers today tells the tale of lets say 2 city's. We know what we see and it is what it is. They already know guys.
There is no single index used to calculate beta. A company’s fundamentals will give you a much better picture of the potential long-term risk. According to Tabb Group’s over 30% of buy-side shares in the U.S. are now executed by algorithmic trading platforms so watch this ratio closer. Credit markets are outperforming equities across the board, both in higher and lower quality tiers of the universe. In the forums as mentioned since my tax dollar has a serial number so should CDO OTC. Those in the middle class who think they can compete with Wall Street will be selling hot potatoes to themselves all the way down to whatever the new low becomes in relationship fundamentals as we will see since the word avarice does have a price if you understand the generational context we monitor. As far as i am concerned this is another chapter to Minsky in relationship and direct context to consolidation of nominal policy as I conveyed to bulldozing in the article I forwarded from 1995 and the observation from the mid 80's to the domestification of the senate to local matters as being on a leash in a negative connotation other than a handfull who get it....
Since lots of different sorts of people use derivatives as a rate of change plug in the mindset to critical mass we normal engineers factor in and why we posit safety factors. These forums are well covered in it.
As You may think of this as "rate of change in y with respect to x". You can take an equation, break it up into terms, figure out the derivative individually and build the answer back up, and nothing odd will happen but as John has stated correctly the rubber band is stretched or it may break which is class probability and they do not care since we watched them do it to class y.
The inverse direction of Standards “Those who choose goto gold standard in relationship to Fiat is what it is and we have the effects recorded already. And that topic is my intercalation not of neoclassical Keynesians since if you clearly understand the agenda of it you will conclude and monitor the rate of decay it is on many other terms in Society. y = mx + c is a line with constant slope m.
Now solve shadow army consumption since many are livid to observed avarice and unwise policy.
http://emweb.unl.edu/NEGAHBAN/EM373/note19/note19.htm
http://www.esm.psu.edu/courses/emch12/i ... -tutorial/

In other words, we should expect a reading under 32% or over 68% approximately 13 times per year. Since such a reading would be unusual, it suggests that we are seeing an unsustainable trend. These figures assume a normal distribution curve.
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscribe ... iption.htm

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/youve- ... o-about-it
you can be rest assured you are not part of that class that the government truly serves. In preparation for the social mobility thesis behind the protection of the banks....