Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

** 13-Jul-2020 World View: It's time to buy

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:54 am > The publication dates you've noted on these are somewhat telling.

> First, this one (Klement On Investing, 19-Feb-2020) was the day
> the S&P made its all time high!

> Then, these two (Fool.com, 26-Sep-2019) and (Amazon, 30-Sep-1999)
> were both a few months before the all time S&P highs of March 2000
> and February 2020.

> I don't know what to make of the more recent predictions where Dow
> 100,000 is still being predicted even though a seemingly important
> high has passed. I also don't know what to make of a stock market
> bubble in the midst of a recession or possibly depression - that's
> never happened before so far as I am aware.

The "reasoning" behind the recent predictions is because there's
going to be a "V-shaped recovery."

It's like the general advice. When stock prices are rising, then you
should buy because they're going to go higher. When stock prices
ae falling, then you should buy because stocks are cheap and you can
get a bargain. In other words, the advice is ALWAYS to buy.

I heard on CNBC this morning that it's time to start worrying about
inflation again. I guess the reason is that if you're worried about
inflation, then you should buy stocks to protect yourself. These
people are total airheads.

I don't understand why there's a stock market bubble during an economic recession or possibly even a depression, but I've finally added some more money to my account and sold 2 more lots.

There was some more fake vaccine news out last night that propelled the market. That's what finally induced me to add money and sell more.

More and more people are saying that this market in relation to the economics makes no sense at all; but it keeps going up and up. Maybe its something connected to a Covid psychology: Lets gamble our way into riches?

** 15-Jul-2020 World View: Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:59 am > There was some more fake vaccine news out last night that
> propelled the market. That's what finally induced me to add money
> and sell more.

The medical commentators seemed pretty excited about it, but who
knows? There's so much wishful thinking and political spin and market
hysteria going on, it's impossible to be sure.

• A pharmacist gives Jennifer Haller a shot of an experimental
  coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. The Phase 1 trial
  indicates the vaccine prompts the production of antibodies, though
  there were some serious side effects at high doses. (Ted S. Warren /
  Associated Press)

*** Clinical trial results indicate Moderna coronavirus vaccine is on the right track

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... ight-track

> "Within 12 hours of getting the second dose of an
> experimental COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Moderna Inc., Ian
> Haydon began to feel chills. Then came nausea, headaches, muscle
> pain and delirium. He took his temperature: 103.2 degrees.

> The 29-year-old Seattle resident, one of 45 participants in the
> company’s Phase 1 clinical trial, knew his body was trying to
> mount a defense against the vaccine. If it worked, his immune
> system would be primed to fight an actual coronavirus infection.

> An aspiring marathon runner without any health issues, Haydon
> could not remember ever feeling this sick. His girlfriend took him
> to urgent care. Later that night, he fainted in their apartment.

> With fluids and rest, the symptoms faded. A day and half after
> getting the shot, he felt fine.

I think they're using the China trade deal template to hold the market up.

Yes, I believe there will be a vaccine, just as there was a trade deal, but...

I've repeatedly harped on the Gen X Debacles and The 97th Percentile. It's my opinion that the vaccine will be rolled out and it will do more harm than good. So when I say the news is fake what I mean is that the vaccine will not be a panacea and in fact will turn out to be harmful on net.

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:43 am I don't understand why there's a stock market bubble during an economic recession or possibly even a depression, but I've finally added some more money to my account and sold 2 more lots.

Reasons I can see:
1) People don't have to pay rent, mortgage, student loans, and have extra high unemployment for now
- so they are investing/gambling in stocks till they absolutely must pay the rent
2) The Fed did print a lot of money and buy some corporate bonds.
This does save some companies some on interest but helping the rich and risking inflation is long term probably a bad thing.

But blowing a bubble during a depression is an impressive display of Fiscal and Monetary foolishness.

slow at first then all at once.
selling into

vincecate wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:44 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:43 am I don't understand why there's a stock market bubble during an economic recession or possibly even a depression, but I've finally added some more money to my account and sold 2 more lots.

Reasons I can see:
1) People don't have to pay rent, mortgage, student loans, and have extra high unemployment for now
- so they are investing/gambling in stocks till they absolutely must pay the rent
2) The Fed did print a lot of money and buy some corporate bonds.
This does save some companies some on interest but helping the rich and risking inflation is long term probably a bad thing.

But blowing a bubble during a depression is an impressive display of Fiscal and Monetary foolishness.

At its core, I would put it down to extreme short term thinking that is driving the market, more extreme than has been seen in the past. In the past, the most extreme short term thinking was that the party would go on until the stock market would peak with the onset of a recession rather than looking the usual 3 to 6 months ahead. At this time, the stock market seems to be looking in the rear view mirror and saying the rear view mirror will return some day. That feeds into the fake vaccine news. That seems to be all about the idea that we'll get a vaccine and then things will look like they do in the rear view mirror. The main idea with both the vaccine and the things you cite is the market would rather focus on the extreme short term positives than the actual backdrop or the horrible long term consequences. I think the long term consequences look so dire than most people don't even want to think about them at all. Just that we'll get a vaccine and print more money and everything will go back to looking like it does in the rear view mirror.

John wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am ** 13-Jul-2020 World View: It's time to buy

The "reasoning" behind the recent predictions is because there's going to be a "V-shaped recovery."

And when there is, everything will return to the way it looks in the rear view mirror.

richard5za wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:10 am More and more people are saying that this market in relation to the economics makes no sense at all; but it keeps going up and up. Maybe its something connected to a Covid psychology: Lets gamble our way into riches?

At this time, Americans seem to be into gambling on every level.

There was a recent story about COVID parties where an infected person attends a party with uninfected people. The uninfected people put money into a pot and the first person to test positive for COVID wins the pot. One 30 year old in Texas who contracted COVID in this manner told the hospital nurse that he thought maybe he made a mistake, and those were his last words before he died. Only in America. Is the moral of that story to draw up a will in case you win the pot?