Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:07 pm
Hard to get a break here. Kept the stop in and then reacted to the chaos afterwards using 3062 to 3063 as the late day pivot.
Generational theory, international history and current events
https://gdxforum.com/forum/
Hard to get a break here. Kept the stop in and then reacted to the chaos afterwards using 3062 to 3063 as the late day pivot.
It's interesting that you mention this again. The first reason it's interesting is the recent discussion of why I think this will be a dark age versus something less severe. The second reason it's interesting is because I said I was surprised that there were supply chain problems in the US food industry. If I'd spent more time reading my own posts, I would have had a better answer for the first and wouldn't have been surprised by the second.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:16 pm Demarest's analysis is incomplete, as would be anybody's including my own because we all lack knowledge and experience as well as overweight experience we have (which is why I urge every person to adopt their own view of the future).
What I think could add to his comments would be an analysis of the degree of hypercoherence that exists today versus previous civilizations or previous crisis periods. The comments I can recall making regarding that on this thread are:
- Control by large corporations of finance, retail, manufacturing and food production and distribution (lack of Main Street businesses) which reduces redundancy and margins (Amazon is the best example I can think of)
Coordinated worldwide Central Bank interventions which have created an unprecedented "all one market" bubble with no important outlier economy to provide redundancy
Complex worldwide supply chains based on electronically enabled financial transactions (where, to repeat an example another analyst provided, aluminum is mined in one country, refined in another, the can produced in another, the soda made in yet another)
Diminishing marginal returns due to factors such as increasing cost of energy production which make redundancy in inventory less affordable
The owner of this business published a book in 2001 called The Coming Dark Age. He also had a blog or two that provided current news that demonstrated how the theory was unfolding in real time, which was abandoned a few years ago, but is still in existence (sort of like the ruins of abandoned buildings). Believing a dark age is coming is all well and good until the bills need to be paid as another year goes by, then another. Those lights can get pretty expensive until they go out. And you can't sell anything telling people a dark age is coming. To sell, you have to tell them the the fourth technological revolution is coming and it will change everything (see link).Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:15 pm http://amarna-ltd.co.uk/index.html
Generational cycle also noted.Elites exploit this cheap labour to expand, and divide into rival factions. Elite expansion increases the state's obligations while general impoverishment reduces its revenues, and its authority breaks down. Elite factions then mobilise the populace to fight over a new order.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”• Information-Scientific: 1955 - c. 2110; machines became intelligent, taking over human cognitive work.
While the production principles have been of successively shorter duration, they have each gone through the same six stages in the same relative time. The present Information-Scientific principle is currently in Stage 2 (Adolescence). Stage 2 of the Industrial principle was from 1600 to 1730, and witnessed breakthroughs in fundamental science. However, the real transformation of society came in Stage 3, when population was displaced from the countryside into the cities and the nature of work changed with the rise of factories and steampower. Stage 3 of the Information-Scientific principle will begin around 2030/2040, and will see displacement of population from the planet's surface into orbital factories along with changes in the nature of work as Artificial Intelligence takes over routine intellectual tasks.