Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=sYGS7b9M
http://gdxforum.com/forum/download/file.php?id=1387

Another interesting point someone made. So imagine the government puts your country in lockdown (we have had all passenger traffic with the outside world cut off, even for citizens wanting to come home). This can for a time prevent infection. However, if people ever want to get back to work and have an economy again, the infection can start up again. Only if they get a vaccine or cure in the meantime does it really solve the problem. The politicians are not going to want to risk letting people go back to work and dying, so probably they will keep the lockdowns till it is very clear it has been way too long.

China has very few new infections, but it does not seem they have really gone back to work. So while it sort of seams over, it is not really over. If they all went back to work and there were still few infections, then it could be over. People in the USA think it was only a very short time for China so it will only be a short time for the USA. One, it is not short for China since it is not really over yet. Two, the USA is not the same as China.

I am less and less expecting this to end quickly and certainly don't see the economy recovering quickly.

A good chance people are overreacting but probably will continue to do so:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

vincecate wrote:Another interesting point someone made. So imagine the government puts your country in lockdown (we have had all passenger traffic with the outside world cut off, even for citizens wanting to come home). This can for a time prevent infection. However, if people ever want to get back to work and have an economy again, the infection can start up again. Only if they get a vaccine or cure in the meantime does it really solve the problem. The politicians are not going to want to risk letting people go back to work and dying, so probably they will keep the lockdowns till it is very clear it has been way too long.

China has very few new infections, but it does not seem they have really gone back to work. So while it sort of seams over, it is not really over. If they all went back to work and there were still few infections, then it could be over. People in the USA think it was only a very short time for China so it will only be a short time for the USA. One, it is not short for China since it is not really over yet. Two, the USA is not the same as China.

I am less and less expecting this to end quickly and certainly don't see the economy recovering quickly.

A good chance people are overreacting but probably will continue to do so:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

I agree with you, V, the general prediction from so many parts of the globe is that somewhere around 7 out of 10 people will likely be infected eventually unless there is a cure or vaccine. This stay at home not working business will lead to the New Great Depression.

Nothing is long term anymore. All is uncertain.
The next bubble is the US dollar - have you seen how fast it is appreciating against other currencies? The bubble is soon but maybe goes on for the medium term!
With all the massive financial 'hand outs' and money printing, in due course gold will go through the roof and also bubble. May be this year?
The US dollar and global financial system, and gold, will not survive the bubbles and a new system will take its place. Will bitcoin play a role?
Will all this plus massive global debt create a world war?

richard5za wrote:Nothing is long term anymore. All is uncertain.
The next bubble is the US dollar - have you seen how fast it is appreciating against other currencies? The bubble is soon but maybe goes on for the medium term!
With all the massive financial 'hand outs' and money printing, in due course gold will go through the roof and also bubble. May be this year?
The US dollar and global financial system, and gold, will not survive the bubbles and a new system will take its place. Will bitcoin play a role?
Will all this plus massive global debt create a world war?

The bond bubble is next. With the interest rates on bonds now and the rate they are printing money it is stupid to hold bonds. Now is the time to sell as the central banks are buying. But as they buy bonds faster and faster and print money faster and faster it will become clear to more and more that things are spiraling out of control. Then the dollar and other currencies go down. If the Fed balance sheet grows faster and faster then inflation is coming for sure. With the economy in trouble, taxes will be down, and governments all over were already spending way beyond their taxes. So central banks will be buying government bonds with new money. If we simplify that a bit, they will be printing and spending money as in "foolish banana republic".

Now/If/when the dollar crashes I like:
Gold
Black Gold = Oil
Digital Gold = Bitcoin
Poor man's gold = Silver

"The state budget, which is based on oil prices of just above $40 per barrel, may be in deficit this year, forcing the government to tap its sovereign-wealth fund just two months after...

This refers to the non debt based systems.

Your correct on oil and I will pass on bitcoin since the last information I seen was half was criminal inputs and silver when
delivered. I understand the argument since the paradise and panama papers the alleged legal banks are up to their neck in shelf
corporation money laundering also as fact. The get out of jail free tbtf models have permanently shattered public trust.
DOJ is a doormat.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 950#p50980

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there ... -sell-flow

On another note they fired 400 mid level chicoms for being typical government extinction level thought maps.
Yes they indulged the spin zealots to the process.

It will always come down to blood and soil. All else is noise now.

The 10 divisions for propaganda analysis are as follows:
1. The ideology and purpose of the propaganda campaign
2. The context in which the propaganda occurs
3. Identification of the propagandist
4. The structure of the propaganda organization
5. The target audience
6. Media utilization techniques
7. Special techniques to maximize effect
8. Audience reaction to various techniques
9. Counter propaganda, if present
10. Effects and evaluation

Avarice the spur of greed.
April 8th 2024.
The judgement seal ends.

A we noted long that will be evaluated in June as the march sweeps failed to date.

As the before time it will allow themselves to kill the political impediments of a region. Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:14 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7U46kS4kmA

Again we warn you of the price of external propaganda and the spur of avarice.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 900#p50879
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/worse- ... elmed-town

From 0 to 125,000 cases: 14 weeks

From 125,000 to 250,000 cases: 9 days

— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 20, 2020
If you still believe those warnings were 'alarmist', we wish you the best of luck during the coming weeks. You're going to need it.


On the other hand, a low WACC indicates that the company acquires capital cheaply.

vincecate wrote:Another interesting point someone made. So imagine the government puts your country in lockdown (we have had all passenger traffic with the outside world cut off, even for citizens wanting to come home). This can for a time prevent infection. However, if people ever want to get back to work and have an economy again, the infection can start up again. Only if they get a vaccine or cure in the meantime does it really solve the problem. The politicians are not going to want to risk letting people go back to work and dying, so probably they will keep the lockdowns till it is very clear it has been way too long.

China has very few new infections, but it does not seem they have really gone back to work. So while it sort of seams over, it is not really over. If they all went back to work and there were still few infections, then it could be over. People in the USA think it was only a very short time for China so it will only be a short time for the USA. One, it is not short for China since it is not really over yet. Two, the USA is not the same as China.

I am less and less expecting this to end quickly and certainly don't see the economy recovering quickly.

A good chance people are overreacting but probably will continue to do so:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This has interesting knockon effects.

Millions have not been paying their mortgages for years and the banks did not take foreclosure action because they didn't want to flood the market with houses and depress values.

Imagine if this were to now happen on a larger scale.

In just a few days, tenants around the country are going to have to decide whether they will pay their rent, even if they have the money. Let's say they choose not to pay their rent. Will the landlord evict? Will the courts be open to hear eviction cases? If not, and the landlord can find someone who will pay, will the landlord hire a gang of thugs to throw the tenant out? Regardless of whether that is in our immediate future, it is very likely in our future somewhere down the line.

Will the government declare a mortgage/rent holiday? Will the government print money so everyone can pay their mortgage/rent?

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/confi ... e-disaster
Other firms, who had less leverage on, survived until that Thursday when the Fed launched the repo bazooka, allowing all those who had the basis trade on to quietly exit stage left, bailed out by a deceiving Fed that told the world its mission was to rescue main street when in reality it was just making sure the billionaires had someone to dump their money-losing positions to.