Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote:Seems like things are moving forward at full throttle. I can feel it in my gut. In 1992, I thought the prospect of dying in a nuclear war had finally disappeared. Now it seems more inevitable than ever. I hope I die instantly.

How old were you in 1992?

..that's pertinent because I'm interested in your "generational perspective".


I was in my mid-forth decade (b.1956-9).

Tom Mazanec wrote:Yes guest (whichever one you are). Tell all.
And I would like to be vaporized, too, but after a few hours warning so I can get my soul into as good a shape as I can.

(( Preface: WW3 ain't happ'nin' til 2023-25, in my opinion, as there are too many "outs" [pressure relievers] for China until then. ))

..my luck tells me I'll trip and fall, due to an ancient knee injury, and tumble off my tiny boat far out to sea, and be dragged for several miles (as I always have my tether on) before hitting my head on a floating Chinese cargo container and subsequently being eaten by some big fish, and a lot of little ones.

Vaporization would be a nifty way to go, though. It just ain't for me, as I've never been particularly lucky.

John wrote:

Guest wrote:If China collapses there won't be any trade deal, it will likely be a war.

Many things are going wrong for China, which means that China is
increasingly trapped and desperate. This makes China very, very
dangerous.

What is going wrong for China, belt and road is still intact. China is still making trade gains in east Africa. Only the US is closing its doors to China. Regarding China's Non-US foreign relations things are unchanged.

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:Yes guest (whichever one you are). Tell all.
And I would like to be vaporized, too, but after a few hours warning so I can get my soul into as good a shape as I can.

(( Preface: WW3 ain't happ'nin' til 2023-25, in my opinion, as there are too many "outs" [pressure relievers] for China until then. ))

..my luck tells me I'll trip and fall, due to an ancient knee injury, and tumble off my tiny boat far out to sea, and be dragged for several miles (as I always have my tether on) before hitting my head on a floating Chinese cargo container and subsequently being eaten by some big fish, and a lot of little ones.

Vaporization would be a nifty way to go, though. It just ain't for me, as I've never been particularly lucky.

China has the option of War against non-US allies. Sorry boomer but if China attacked say India today that would escalate but to a war between Russia and China, Not the US and China. This is Because the US has no treaty obligations to India, but Russia has treaty obligations to India.

John, good analysis on your comment dated Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:02 pm. Worse case scenario, it would be like Budapest in 1956 before the UN would try to declare a ceasefire for evacuation of foreigners.

This is just my opinion, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is pretty vulnerable to fail due to more internal than external forces. I would like to state that the CCP is the latest version of the Mandarins that has ruled China for the past thousands of years. Only 6 to 7 per cent of the Chinese population are members of the CCP. This segment of China will fight tooth and nail for the CCP.

One of the more telling facts is the amount of money and energy is spent to control its population versus spent on the People’s Liberation Army for external defense. It has an army of occupation (The People’s Armed Police), information control (Great Fire Wall) and surveillance and coordination apparatus (Ministry of State Security) with its neighborhood dragnet, digitized “social credit” systems and other enforcement systems. The mass detention system is getting its first run with the Uighurs and I would bet soon other ethnic minorities such as the Mongols, Tibetans, Tajik, Korean…… will get their turn unfortunately.

A significant inflection point will be the breakdown of the information control system. It is crumbling already due to the lack of trust, creditability and cynicism. Chinese people are trying to move money out of China or move out completely. I have seen this personally.

Personally, I think there will be war, but not between the US and PRC. The general US population is war adverse and a civil war in China will not be an existential threat to the US if contained within the borders of China. The only action with the US military will be the conduct of a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) from Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dalian and other major cities with concentrations of Americans and Westerners.

John you stated in your book that the odds are tilting to a PRC versus Japan knife fight, but I think a warmup will be easier for the PRC to go after Taiwan or Vietnam. It would be easier for the PLA, PLAF and PLAN to get operational experience. Japan would be bloody and you said and I agree, the US would stand behind Japan. It would be less like for a USA/PRC conflict over Taiwan and/or Vietnam.

You might find this interesting: https://twitter.com/GregPoling/status/1 ... 1458026496
I would bet a Sam Adams winter lager that this has been war-gamed by PACOM already.

Prophets ended with the death of St.John.

Tom Mazanec wrote:Prophets ended with the death of St.John.

St. John (X) is not dead yet...!!!

..but his profits DO seem to have largely expired...

WRITE ANOTHER BOOK,.. 'cept this time,... ZOMBIES..!!!

Cynic Hero 86 wrote:LOL, to the Notion of a Fascist China vs a Communist US. Sorry the rest of us live on planet earth. China vs US fight would be a Capitalist America vs a Communist China.

China is a communist state ruled by the communist party. The US is capitalist, Europe is socialist but that is social democracy not communism.

The US under the Dems would drift crazily toward oligarchic-crony-capitalism (state/elite totalitarian tyranny), and China is currently pretty much entirely oligarchic-crony-capitalist (state/elite totalitarian tyranny) tending toward more of a monarchic-crony-capitalist (god-monarch/state/elite totalitarian tyranny).

So, it would be fascists versus fascists,.. which would be a fun watch!

The US under Trump would be a bit different. MUCH more fun to watch,.. and considerably "safer" to live through as a citizen of anywhere.

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:Prophets ended with the death of St.John.

St. John (X) is not dead yet...!!!

..but his profits DO seem to have largely expired...

WRITE ANOTHER BOOK,.. 'cept this time,... ZOMBIES..!!!

I meant John the Apostle

Tom Mazanec wrote:

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:Prophets ended with the death of St.John.

St. John (X) is not dead yet...!!!

..but his profits DO seem to have largely expired...

WRITE ANOTHER BOOK,.. 'cept this time,... ZOMBIES..!!!

I meant John the Apostle

I'm an Apostle of Generational Dynamics.