Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Hig...I've been patient, and I will be joining you in the ES next week.

jcsok wrote:Hig...I've been patient, and I will be joining you in the ES next week.

Are there any reasons you have for thinking a high can be in this area? I'm recalling a zero hedge article you linked on Gann awhile back where the estimate was for a high between about September of this year and March of next.

There were unusually heavy resting orders in the ES yesterday as the market moved up. Over 1000 orders at 2990, 2991, 2992, 2993, 2995, 2996, 2999, and over 1500 at 3000. I don't recall seeing this many blocks of over 1000 orders.

There are lots of opinions on the stock market. But few who have the capability to put money behind their opinion to that degree.

Does that mean it's the top? No, but those who place large resting orders tend to be right more often than not. And I may have a couple of those numbers wrong, as I didn't write them down, but in general the above is correct.

** 04-Jul-2019 ES Futures Market

Profile of the S&P 500 (ES) Futures Market

Learn the Basics of Trading S&P 500 or ES Futures

description of ES futures

By Adam Milton
Updated December 19, 2018

Futures that trade under the symbol ES are based on the S&P 500 stock
index, a benchmark for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 index is calculated
using the stock prices of 500 large U.S. companies.

ES futures trade on an electronic trading system. If you want to trade
these futures, you'll be able to trade them almost 24 hours per day,
from 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Sunday night to 5:00 p.m. Friday
night. There is a trading halt between 4:15 and 4:30 PM ET each day.

The most active ES contract typically has a daily trading volume
between one and two million contracts. This fluctuates with
volatility. As you might expect, volatile days have higher volume, and
low-volatility days are more toward the lower end of the volume range.

Between 2008 and 2017, ES futures typically have had a daily range of
10 points when volatility is low and 40 points or above when
volatility is high.

ES Contract Specifications

Contract specifications are basic things a trader should know about
the futures market they are trading. The contract specifications for
the ES futures market are as follows:

Symbol: ES
Expiration months: March, June, September, and December
Exchange: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Globex
Currency: U.S. Dollar
Tick size / Minimum Price Fluctuation: 0.25 points
Tick Value or Profit/Loss Per Tick: $12.50
Ticks Per Point: 4, making each point worth $50 per contract

Knowing the tick and point value is important for controlling risk and
trading the proper futures position size. For example, if you're a day
trader and you're willing to risk $100 per trade, you could buy two
contracts with a stop-loss order one point away from your entry. If
the price hits the stop loss, the loss is kept to $100. Alternatively,
if you only buy one contract and set a two-point stop loss, this
results in the same $100 loss.

The base symbol of the E-mini S&P 500 future is ES, but since there
are multiple expiry dates for each year, the full symbol is
longer. Each expiry month has a code:

March is H
June is M
September is U
December is Z

If trading the March contract, the symbol is ESH, for example, but you
also need to know the year. Take the last digit of the year and add it
to the symbol. In 2015 the symbol is ESH5. In 2017, the March contract
is ESH7. The December 2019 contract is ESZ9.

Some websites and platforms use the last two digits of the year, for
example, ESU16 for the September 2016 contract. See Futures Market
Expiration Dates for more information.

S&P 500 (ES) Holidays

The ES futures market is open for trading every trading day, Sunday
night to Friday, except for the holidays, which can be found here: CME
Holiday Calendar. There are trading hour alterations or closures
around national holidays. There is a national holiday every month
except for April, June, September, and October. Therefore, in all
other months, there is at least one trading day that may be affected
by a holiday.

Trading E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) Futures

The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures are some of the most liquid in the
world and are popular among day traders. Because of their popularity,
ES futures can be traded every day, as there is ample volume and
volatility most days to generate a profit.

The couple of hours surrounding the stock market open at 7:30 a.m. ET
has the best price movement and volume and is ideal for day
trading. The last hour of trading, from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. ET, also
typically sees more price movement and volume compared to middle,
quieter, portion of the day.

Practice an ES day trading strategy before trading with real
capital. There are a number of programs, including NinjaTrader, that
allow traders to download historical market data, and test out trading
strategies whenever they like. This is beneficial for people with
limited time or who want to practice in the evening when the market
isn't open or isn't active. Recall, the best times to day trade are
limited to a few hours each day.

Risk management is paramount for successful ES trading. How much you
start trading with will depend on your strategy and how much you are
willing to risk per trade. It's recommended that traders start day
trading with at least $3,500, and preferably $6,500 to $7,000. To
swing trade ES futures, start with at least $10,000, but ideally more.

E-Mini S&P 500 Margins

Day traders have lower margin requirements than traders who hold
futures positions overnight. Margin is how much the trader must have
in their account to open a futures position. For every ES contract
held overnight, the trader must have $4,950 in their account at the
time the position is opened.

Day traders don't hold positions overnight and are therefore not
subject to this rule. Instead, the broker sets the margin
requirement. Day trading margins start as low as $500 with some
brokers. In other words, to open a one-contract position the trader
only needs $500 in their account. As indicated above, though, starting
with at least $3,500 or more in the account is highly recommended.

https://www.thebalance.com/profile-of-t ... et-1031271

To give some perspective, if there was one party selling 5000 lots of the ES yesterday at a price around 3000, that party is selling $750 million worth of stocks.

Another question might be how often is a block of 1000 resting orders seen in the ES? I would say once or maybe twice a week and it's almost always at just one level, not multiple levels.

For comparison, at the 2915 low a few days ago that occurred during off peak time (near the 4 pm close), there were also large resting orders for that time of day and there were about 3 blocks of around 350 orders. There were around 600 near the July 3 low of the day.

I beat the komodo9 bot rated 1741, but it took 7 tries. 6 losses and 1 win against this bot raised my Blitz rating a few points to a new high.

This is a dome formation in my view after three peaks for this gann mindset dome just as the rigged thermite building was in allegory.
The dems and rhinos as we speak will not relent because it is what Marxist will always do.
I think this period is way past playing with hell fire. I have not reopened book four to date...
The charts are clear in gap positions we covered as megaphone indicators around here before also.
I will stick to the usual suspects.

Commodity trends need to be feared until they begin to change.
copper will lag watch closer / gold/ oil
federal tax receipts <-------------------------
chapwood index
empire pmi index
basic materials
lei

Large corporations are transitioning labor needs from payroll to other corporations and LLC.
Zero employee corporations.
ZEC's are owned and run by ex-employees now contract.

Labor projects are bid out by-the-hour in a development methodology called Agile, where ZEC's bid on project line items by the hour.
This allows mega-corporations to receive 80 hours labor for the price of 40. It's even more lucrative because they leverage the savings
into more profit by firing one payroll employee who's work is outsourced to a ZEC.

By the time the IRS knows what hit them- their tax base will consist of mostly minimum wage payroll employees.

The US spends and loses close to $1 Trillion per year on illegals who are low-IQ, low-education and low-skills
and will never survive without welfare. Cloward and Piven welfare Marxist plantations.
They are to ignorant and corrupt in Washington to even begin to wake up and will ignore it as before.
The pharmacological effects are obvious to keep the current lunatics in line we witness is rather true.
The only one coming around out of the damn haze appears to be Schumer.

aeden wrote:They are to ignorant and corrupt in Washington to even begin to wake up and will ignore it as before.

The last chance to save the "Old America" and "Make America Great Again" was 1992 (Perot) in my opinion. And 10% or so of the electorate were interested in casting that vote and getting behind a potentially truly great leader.

The last chance to opt for a decades long Depression and restore America to a "New America" decades down the line which would be different but still potentially great was in the 2008 to 2011 period. Most of the electorate was interested in opting for that choice but there were unable to (they were blocked by the elites from making that choice because the elites wanted to preserve their status).

So now, due to those choices, the world is heading into a new dark age. In my opinion, Washington is almost irrelevant because all they can do from here on out is choose various paths that will all lead to the new dark age.