Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Many fake job ads is my conclusion based on comparing past rates of hiring. Gen X is probably throwing a lot of fake job ads out there to try to figure out how to screw people, as well as to throw them off balance. Another source of complexity.

[Higgenbotham]

$208 in 30 minutes this morning. Just trying to stagger them in round 1, then run out of the ring. Hit and run.

[Higgenbotham]

This procedure is not recommended without decades of experience in the market and a well negotiated agreement with a broker that has a user friendly, reliable platform. This is not a game for amateurs.

I spend a few minutes reading a news feed such as Barchart Morning Call. Then input stocks of interest based on overnight news. Met Life announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback. I was watching other stocks, but passed on most of those. My initial buy on Met Life was good but I underestimated the support that announcement would put under the stock and only unloaded about 60% of it when it bounced right after the open.

Morning Call: Weak Eurozone Manufacturing Activity Undercuts Stocks And EUR/USD; Jun E-Mini S&Ps Down -0.61% To A 1-Week Low; EUR/USD Down -0.59% To A 6-1/4 Month Low.

Barchart.com - Wed May 23, 6:39AM CDT
Overnight Markets And News

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 -0.60%) this morning are down -0.61% at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.24% at a 2-week low as weaker-than-expected Eurozone manufacturing activity fuels concern that economic momentum is slowing. The Eurozone May Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.7 to 55.5, its slowest pace of expansion in 15-months. The weaker-than-expected economic data along with the slide in stocks has boosted demand for government debt as the yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a 1-1/4 month low of 0.495%. Concern about a currency crisis in Turkey is also negative for European banks that hold Turkish debt as the Turkish lira plunged to a record low of 4.9253 against the dollar. The lira has fallen on all but three days this month after Turkish President Erdogan said he will take more responsibility for monetary policy if he wins the June 24 election. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.18%, Hog Kong -1.82%, China -1.41%, Taiwan -0.48%, Australia -0.16%, Singapore -1.32%, South Korea +0.65%, India -0.88%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index tumbled to a 1-week low after USD/JPY dropped to a 1-week low, as the stronger yen undercut exporter stocks, and on economic growth concerns after the Japan May Nikkei manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to a 9-month low of 52.5.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) is up +0.36%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.63%) is down -0.59% to a 6-1/4 month low on economic concerns after the Eurozone May Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a 1-1/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -1.06%) is down -1.04% to a 1-week low as the slide in global stock prices boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM18 +0-130) are up +13 ticks at a 1-week high.

The German May Markit/BME manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to a 1-1/4 year low of 56.8, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 57.9.

The Eurozone May Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.7 to a 1-1/4 year low of 55.5, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 56.1.

The Eurozone May Markit composite PMI fell -1.0 to a 1-1/2 year low of 54.1, weaker than expectations of no change at 55.1.

The Japan May Nikkei manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to a 9-month low of 52.5.

U.S. Stock Preview
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -2.7% to 376.5 with purchase sub-index -2.1% to 252.4 and refi sub-index -3.8% to 1057.1), (2) May Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 56.5, Apr +0.9 to 56.5) and May Markit U.S. services PMI (expected +0.4 to 55.0, Apr +0.6 to 54.6, (3) Apr new home sales (expected -2.2% to 679,000, Mar +4.0% to 694,000), (4) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (5) Treasury auctions $16 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $36 billion of 5-year T-notes, (6) minutes of the May 1-2 FOMC meeting, (7) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks in a moderated Q&A at an event in an event in Bismark, ND.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Target (consensus $1.39), Lowe's (1.22), Tiffany (0.83), Ralph Lauren (0.83), Williams-Sonoma (0.57), L Brands (0.15).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA), Scholar Rock Holding Corp (SRRK), CLPS Inc (CLPS), GreenSky (GSKY).

Equity conferences this week: UBS Global Healthcare and Life Sciences Conference on Mon-Wed, Electrical Products Group Conference on Mon-Wed, JPMorgan Technology, Media and Telecoms CEO Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference on Tue-Thu, Berenberg USA Conference on Tue-Thu, Citi Consumer Staples Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley Chem Tech Day on Wed, Advances in Immuno-Oncology Congress on Thu, Handelsbanken Nordic Mid Small Cap Seminar on Thu, HSBC Luxury Goods Conference on Thu, Jefferies Global Automotive Aftermarket Investor Conference on Thu, Wells Fargo Financial Services Investor Forum on Thu.

Market Comments
June S&P 500 E-minis (ESM18 -0.60%) this morning are down -16.50 points (-0.61%) at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.31%, Dow Jones -0.72%, Nasdaq -0.17%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday retreated from a 2-month high and closed lower on renewed North Korean geopolitical tensions after President Trump said there's a "very substantial chance" the summit with North Korea may not take place. There was also a slide in retailer stocks, led by a -7% plunge in Kohl's, after it said it expects "headwinds" in the second half of this year. Stocks found support on a rally in automakers after China said it will cut its import duty on passenger cars to 15% from 25%, effective July 1, as it moves to open its markets and reduce trade tensions. There was also strength in energy stocks as crude oil prices rose to a new 3-1/2 year high.

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM18 +0-130) this morning are up +13 ticks to a 1-week high. Tuesday's closes: TYM8 +1.00, FVM8 -0.25. Jun 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed little changed. T-note prices were undercut by carry-over weakness from a slide in German 10-year bund prices and by supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $115 billion of T-notes and floating-rate notes this week. T-notes recovered their losses after the S&P 500 fell back from a 2-month high and closed lower.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) this morning is up +0.335 (+0.36%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.63%) is down -0.0070 (-0.59%) to a 6-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -1.06%) is down -1.15 (-1.04%) to a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.068 (-0.07%), EUR/USD -0.0013 (-0.11%), USD/JPY -0.15 (-0.14%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on strength in the commodity currencies of Canada and Australia versus the dollar as the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may boost global economic growth and increase demand for commodities. There was also long liquidation pressure in the dollar following the sharp rally over the past week to Monday's 5-1/4 month high.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Jun gold (GCM18 +0.31%) +4.3 (+0.33%), Jul silver (SIN18 -0.18%) -0.025 (-0.15%), and Jul copper (HGN18 -2.22%) -0.072 (-2.28%). Tuesday's closes: Jun gold +1.10 (+0.09%), Jul silver +0.055 (+0.33%), Jul copper +0.0335 (+1.08%). Metals on Tuesday closed higher with Jul copper at a 3-week high and Jul silver at a 1-week high. Metals prices were supported by a weaker dollar and by China's cut in its tariffs on car imports, which may boost demand for industrial metals used in vehicles. Copper was supported by signs of stronger copper demand after LME canceled warrants for copper in LME warehouses rose +3,250 MT to a 3-week high of 65,900.

Jul WTI crude oil prices (CLN18 -0.54%) this morning are down -43 cents (-0.42%) and Jun gasoline (RBM18 -0.91%) is -0.0244 (-1.07%). Tuesday's closes: Jun crude -0.11 (-0.15%), Jun gasoline +0.0137 (+0.61%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed with Jun gasoline at a 3-1/2 year high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by global oil supply concerns after President Trump approved additional sanctions on Venezuela that may further curb its crude exports. Crude oil prices were also boosted by expectations that Wednesday's EIA data will show U.S. crude inventories fell -2.0 million bbl last week. Crude oil gave up its gains on a Reuters report that said OPEC may raise its crude output as soon as next month on concerns about Venezuelan oil production.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers
Intuit (INTU -0.60%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-weight' ar First Analysis with a price target of $160.

Celgene (CELG +2.57%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus Research.

Estee Lauder (EL +0.06%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $170.

Urban Outfitters (URBN -2.55%) fell 2% in after-hours trading despite reporting Q1 gross margin of 32.8%, better than consensus of 32.6%.

Ameren (AEE +0.64%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' 'from Sell' at Goldman Sachs.

MetLife (MET +0.77%) gained nearly 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization.

Integrated Device Technology (IDTI +1.22%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Cowen with a price target of $37.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB -4.53%) slumped 14% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, below consensus of 75 cents.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY +1.24%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Cowen with a price target of $21.

HP Enterprise (HPE -0.57%) gained 0.2% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS OF $1.40 TO $1.50, the midpoint above consensus of $1.41.

Blackline (BL -1.68%) fell more than 2% in after-hours trading after holder Silver Lake Sumeru Fund offered 3.5 million shares at $40.35-$40.50 via Morgan Stanley.

Quantenna (QTNA -0.86%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $19.

The Container Store (TCS +8.20%) tumbled over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, weaker than consensus of 23 cents, and forecast full-year EPS of 35 cents to 45 cents, the midpoint below consensus of 42 cents.

Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO +3.45%) rallied almost 5% in after-hours trading after it announced a share repurchase program of up to $60 million in outstanding class A shares.

[Higgenbotham]

[Higgenbotham]

Also, the lines on my chart show a 30 cent and a 10 cent gap but my profits were more like 25 and 5. That's because you are going to lose to the spread on both sides.

[Higgenbotham]

The premise here is that, as a gambler, you're looking for something to gamble on. On any given day, you may not want to gamble on the direction of the overall market (or you may want to, but today I don't want to). So if you want to gamble, but not on the overall market, you have to find something that will bounce around more than the market as a whole so that the movement of your particular stock you are gambling on is not unduly influenced by market direction. That means news that was previously unknown and which will cause volatility in the stock. The maximum volatility will occur just after the open as people react to the news.

[Higgenbotham]

There is a proliferation of online services selling holy grail courses or buy and sell recommendations to clients. Many of these cost several thousand dollars for a course or few hundred dollars yearly. Many and it seems like most claim decades of experience in the markets and professional trader status.

If somebody really does know how to gamble (as I think I have adequately demonstrated here) and can make a few hundred dollars a day in "about an hour", why would they need to complicate their lives selling courses or services?

[John]

> There is a proliferation of online services selling holy grail
> courses or buy and sell recommendations to clients. Many of these
> cost several thousand dollars for a course or few hundred dollars
> yearly. Many and it seems like most claim decades of experience
> in the markets and professional trader status.

> If somebody really does know how to gamble (as I think I have
> adequately demonstrated here) and can make a few hundred dollars a
> day in "about an hour", why would they need to complicate their
> lives selling courses or services?

Just before you posted this, I was about to post a message suggesting
that you give a course.

[Higgenbotham]

> There is a proliferation of online services selling holy grail
> courses or buy and sell recommendations to clients. Many of these
> cost several thousand dollars for a course or few hundred dollars
> yearly. Many and it seems like most claim decades of experience
> in the markets and professional trader status.

> If somebody really does know how to gamble (as I think I have
> adequately demonstrated here) and can make a few hundred dollars a
> day in "about an hour", why would they need to complicate their
> lives selling courses or services?

Just before you posted this, I was about to post a message suggesting
that you give a course.

Something I forgot to mention when writing that. I've never seen profitable real time trades or real trading results posted by any gurus with 3 notable exceptions:

Atilla Demiray (who in running across some of his posts over the years is a good real time trader)
Carl Futia (was a research scientist at Bell Labs and who I think truly likes to teach)
Bill Matson (Data Driven Investing Professional Edition has years of his actual brokerage statements appended)

That's a tiny percentage.

[Higgenbotham]

Data Driven Investing-Professional Edition answers dozens of questions that stockbrokers prefer to duck, revealing both the flaws in the traditional investment system, and the common sense secrets that successful investors have used for decades to beat the big guys. This is the first time that dedicated investors can find in one place all the tools, simply explained, that make it possible to earn superior returns. This revolutionary approach-based on hard data and common sense puts into your hands the power to control your investment destiny.

Here's the first part of my course. Read this book and understand everything in it. Get back to me in about a year for part 2 of the course.

https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/ ... ewpoints=1

Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,136,166 in Books

I'm too lazy to go to this much work, but the book would be a good foundation for those who eventually revert to laziness, or maybe more accurately lack of enthusiasm for anything stock market related. Ideally, I don't want to have exposure to the stock market for more than a few minutes but do need to cover my not insignificant and rising cost of living plus inflation.