Richard Russell wrote:
When will the decline end? This bear market will end the way all great bear markets have ended -- at the level when blue chip stocks become "great values." By great values I mean the Dow selling at less than 10 times earnings and with the dividend yield on the Dow in the 5-6% zone.
Russell advice -- Save, save, and husband your money until this bear market ends and great values are available
Richard Russell is not only one of the best Dow Theorists out there but he is in his eighties and has lived through many recessions and (at least) one depression. He also called the March lows almost perfectly. For those of you who aree looking for a good, independent voice to guide you in your investing, I highly recommend him.
i dont know if you folks have seen this yet. i did a search of the forum and it doesn't look like it's been referenced.
it's a graphic displaying the proportions of the various components of this current bailout (about 12 months) with the inflation adjusted size of various major historic expenses like the new deal, korean war, marshal plan, louisiana purchase and others.
it kind of helped me to grasp trillions. keep in mind that the historic sizes are inflation adjusted.
I'm pretty sure its not inflation adjusted, and then its also comparing apples to oranges, expenses vs. non-expenses. A strange depiction I wouldn't put much value in, all to say what everyone already knows - our government is spending like drunken sailors and also throwing mad money around.
greghaught wrote:i dont know if you folks have seen this yet. i did a search of the forum and it doesn't look like it's been referenced.
it's a graphic displaying the proportions of the various components of this current bailout (about 12 months) with the inflation adjusted size of various major historic expenses like the new deal, korean war, marshal plan, louisiana purchase and others.
it kind of helped me to grasp trillions. keep in mind that the historic sizes are inflation adjusted.
> The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the
> pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said Monday, but
> in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the
> three-year bust.
> The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures
> and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales
> progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama
> administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009
> report said.
> Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer
> generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the
> study said.
> The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages
> of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did
> their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.
> "Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple
> that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a
> housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint
> Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.
> The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond,
> supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops,
> the study said.
This is all just guesswork, with no grasp of the long-term events
going on. Yes, perhaps the children of baby boomers will
"eventually" resuscitate the housing market, but "eventually" will
probably be the 2020s.
There's a blog called "News from 1930" that's posting news items
every day from the corresponding day in 1930. Here are a couple of
items that caught my eye in the news on June 24, 1930:
> Current speculative sentiment is bearish, but the conditions are
> there for a strong bull market in the future. While commodity
> price decline is serious, many are selling for record lows or
> below cost of production, which can't continue forever.
> Inventories are low. Wages have not gone down with deflation,
> leaving workers with more buying power. Businesses generally have
> good balance sheets and are operating efficiently; those that need
> to borrow can do so cheaply.
> Warning against following rallies until the market demonstrates
> the ability to hold gains.
i wonder if bernie madoff got what he actually deserved. if the judge had suspended the sentence and turned him loose, then i think he would have eventually gotten what he actually deserved. probably within days.
now he gets the relative safety of prison, probably with a TV, IPOD, Macbook, microwave, and internet access. he might even think it was worth it. he was in high cotton for a long time.
From what I understand, if Bernie Madoff was in China he would be shot, which I think is more appropriate. Public execution has a way of making people think twice.
greghaught wrote:i wonder if bernie madoff got what he actually deserved. if the judge had suspended the sentence and turned him loose, then i think he would have eventually gotten what he actually deserved. probably within days.
now he gets the relative safety of prison, probably with a TV, IPOD, Macbook, microwave, and internet access. he might even think it was worth it. he was in high cotton for a long time.
I wonder what would have happened if he had stolen the money from poor people.
It seems to me some of these wealthy investors should have questioned his high yields -- instead they considered it their priviledge to be part of the chosen elite who discovered him or were sent to him -- deserving more than the less fortunate...
greed...
The Fed and the banks are running the biggest Ponzi scheme ever, we should throw them into jail.
for a little while this morning, globex looks like it's working at capacity.
this could be the end of our little lull. anyone need the down elevator to the subterranean levels? i think this is it. it wont be an express. there'll be some stops.
