I Am Jack's Complete Lack of Surprise.
Tariff Tantrum Ends With Massive Short Squeeze.
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Financial topics
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upsh ... -want.html
The graph of fertility rates versus time is interesting.
The graph of fertility rates versus time is interesting.
Post from 2013 for reference:Feb. 13, 2018
America’s fertility is in precipitous decline. Our team of forecasters at Demographic Intelligence projects 3.84 million births in 2017, down from about 3.95 million in 2016.
And it’s likely to fall further — far short of what women themselves say they want for their family size.
The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reflecting births as of the year ending in September 2017, shows the total fertility rate at 1.77 lifetime births per woman, down 3.8 percent since 2015, and down 16.4 percent since its most recent peak at 2.12 in 2007. (The replacement rate in developed countries is around 2.1.)
Higgenbotham (in 2013) wrote:Update:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... overy.htmlAccording to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.
Info posted last year:
Higgenbotham wrote:This is a reduction of 8.2%.Indeed, total births in the USA peaked at 4,316,000 in 2007, before dropping in the last four years. Recently released provisional birth data by the CDC (Center for Disease Control) show that births in 2011 are preliminarily estimated to be 3,961,000, the lowest figure since 1999.
Looking at the previous peaks in numbers of births, the years where the reductions are closest to 8.2% are:
1961 4,268,326 peak not exceeded until 2007
1964 4,027,490 down 5.6%
1965 3,760,358 down 11.9%
1921 3,055,000 peak not exceeded until 1947
1926 2,839,000 down 7.1%
1927 2,802,000 down 8.3%
This data is taken from a printout of the table:
Table 1-1 Live Births, Birth Rates, and Fertility Rates, by Race: United States, 1909-99
One small detail. Regarding whether the absolute peak was 1957 or 1961, the 1957 births were adjusted to 4,300,000 in the table due to underregistration. I used the unadjusted numbers, which shows the peak to be 1961, but in any case they are very close.
Part of the point in showing this is that there is nothing abnormal in the recent reductions in US births compared to previous cycles. On the other hand, the failure of US births to exceed the previous peak in 1961 by a wide margin is unprecedented.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ker#p12304
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Sometimes I feel it's best to keep facts and opinions in separate posts. But my conclusion based on the above mishmash and the additional data points I have on hand would be that, from the standpoint of number of births, 2017 is most similar to 1928 and 1965. This might imply that 2018 could be most similar to 1929 and 1966. This would imply that a very long period of economic malaise is setting in with a stock market high this year.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
The Baby Boom occurred at the end of WW II. I would expect something
like the inverse of the Baby Boom to occur as WW II approaches, and
that would be a time similar to today.
like the inverse of the Baby Boom to occur as WW II approaches, and
that would be a time similar to today.
Re: Financial topics
If We're are still in the "late 1920s" that would explain the current ineffectiveness of the governments in the world but how would we have a war buildup if the actual war occurs after the large-scale depression and mass panic. No one except perhaps the North Korea and maybe not even them; has really committed themselves to the Mass press-ganging of potential manpower into the military that usually precedes a major war. A world war will probably occur, but the boomer dream of a war fought with robots and unmanned drones is destined to the trash heap of history. Instead of 9/11 supposedly revolutionizing warfare; WW3 would instead probably be manpower-intensive war and resemble WW2 and Korea in terms of tactics and strategy, except with nukes included.
On a side note If it currently equivalent to 1928 or 1929, then the boomer is destined to go down as a pathetic footnote to history. And it would be the Xers and Millies who would be the heroes and villains of the crisis. An Xer or a Millie will be the FDRs, the Churchills, The Hitlers and the Stalins of this Crisis. You lose boomers. It is by far the better outcome if we get the depression first then later the war, than the other way around because the Boomer would have no influence to screw up everything and we would have a reformed society that preserves the culturally American and western Citizenry. This instead of Globalist gruel being served by tyrannical boomers overlords who would simply consolidate power and try to rebuild society in their disgusting image if we get a major war without a prior depression.
Finally the globalists to will lose, hardly anyone will tolerate free trade and Mass Immigration from Latin America and the Middle east in the context of a Major recession or Depression. Hardly Anyone would support free-trade and the export of Manufacturing and the industrial or technological base either. Instead we would be building. There would be hardly any support for globalism during years of Mass buildup for a major war either.
On a side note If it currently equivalent to 1928 or 1929, then the boomer is destined to go down as a pathetic footnote to history. And it would be the Xers and Millies who would be the heroes and villains of the crisis. An Xer or a Millie will be the FDRs, the Churchills, The Hitlers and the Stalins of this Crisis. You lose boomers. It is by far the better outcome if we get the depression first then later the war, than the other way around because the Boomer would have no influence to screw up everything and we would have a reformed society that preserves the culturally American and western Citizenry. This instead of Globalist gruel being served by tyrannical boomers overlords who would simply consolidate power and try to rebuild society in their disgusting image if we get a major war without a prior depression.
Finally the globalists to will lose, hardly anyone will tolerate free trade and Mass Immigration from Latin America and the Middle east in the context of a Major recession or Depression. Hardly Anyone would support free-trade and the export of Manufacturing and the industrial or technological base either. Instead we would be building. There would be hardly any support for globalism during years of Mass buildup for a major war either.
Re: Financial topics
The flow of empirical information has been forwarded already since tariff are alluded as to foster cluster economic nodes by the white flag organizations to deal with border capital drains in extortion to expand ex-ante production expertise. The damage is basically not repairable for decades and your correct that they will have to choose colors since they are under the illusion of open markets. Trump waited to long, and the progressive had no volition or sapience to even pretend to care to balance account. Business is defined by law and we are not a nation of law. Topical discussions have been subject to ignorance and looting for basically well over three decades even on basic national defense discussions since WTO accords. The finger points at all of us as they crouch the opinion as Tabula rasa for obvious educational leverages in the narrative of receipts from taxpayers limited resources. The life boat ethics has never lost its allure in percentages of truth. Let them eat yellow cake rules the land.
No you already lost and we tried to warn you.
No you already lost and we tried to warn you.
Re: Financial topics
The F-35, or "Pregnant Guppy" was designed by committee, not aerospace engineers.
Last edited by aeden on Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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