Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

The sunk cost factors will be seen soon. The effects of actual DCF cannot swim that long with the mill stone of over half the marxist base being ignored in the voter block.
The atmosphere reminds of early pre-crash 1993 metrics for regional failures as public and private gap even further open.
The delay of the catalyst is already surfacing. This includes the CCI and the 1983 discussions as the context of effects.
This transpired to needed tear ups and reg q and reg t also noted here on effects.
We discussed the peaks and a dome effect before.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sL6ril9lDkw/ ... ematic.jpg

As noted for those who seen what we are alluding to the skid marks will entertain the 2018 threads.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -collapses

We can date these effect here. The composite noted point to this mid term event.

From what I factored in the NOI and the DNC are the shoes that fit.
We just fly papered some events to effects of the script few followed.

I think your correct H but the dome will trigger later in the year to the waterfall zone you suggest.
Then the pain trade John seen. As we know the algo's have two modes of functionality.

Stoughton Trailers locked down in Brodhead, police search for man who made threats

Aug 18, 2017

The Stoughton Trailers facility in Brodhead was shut down for about four hours Thursday night as police searched for a plant worker who allegedly threatened to bring a gun to work in a dispute with a co-worker.

As Labor Pool Shrinks, Prison Time Is Less of a Hiring Hurdle

Jan 13, 2018

Until recently, someone like Jordan Forseth might have struggled to find work. Mr. Forseth, 28, was released from prison in November after serving a 26-month sentence for burglary and firearm possession. Mr. Forseth, however, had a job even before he walked out of the Oregon Correction Center a free man.

Nearly every weekday morning for much of last year, Mr. Forseth would board a van at the minimum-security prison outside Madison, Wis., and ride to Stoughton Trailers, where he and more than a dozen other inmates earned $14 an hour wiring taillights and building sidewalls for the company’s line of semitrailers.

Who are the idiots who run these places?

aeden wrote: > The sunk cost factors will be seen soon. The effects of actual DCF
> cannot swim that long with the mill stone of over half the marxist
> base being ignored in the voter block. The atmosphere reminds of
> early pre-crash 1993 metrics for regional failures as public and
> private gap even further open. The delay of the catalyst is
> already surfacing. The includes the CCI and the 1983 discussions
> as the context of effects. This transpired to needed tear ups and
> reg q and reg t also noted here on effects. We discussed the
> peaks and a dome effect before.
> https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sL6ril9lDkw/ ... ematic.jpg

> As noted for those who seen what we are alluding to the skid marks
> will entertain the 2018 threads.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -collapses

> We can date these effect here. The composite noted point to this
> mid term event.

> From what I factored in the NOI and the DNC are the shoes that
> fit. We just fly papered some events to effects of the script few
> followed.

> I think your correct H but the dome will trigger later in the year
> to the waterfall zone you suggest. Then the pain trade John
> seen. As we know the algo's have to modes of
> functionality.

The above obscure remarks are in reference to the forced liquidation
of Britain's Carillion construction firm, which is very big news in
Europe today.

As the ZeroHedge story explains, tens of thousands of employees
could lose their jobs.

However, it doesn't entirely make sense to me that with £5.2 billion
in annual sales, that they couldn't find a way to make payments on net
debts of roughly £900m and a pension deficit of £587m, though that
will perhaps become more clear as more reporting is done.

Government officials and company officials are pointing fingers of
blame at each other, because the government kept providing contracts
to Carillion even though the company was clearly going bankrupt.

But this is exactly the kind of thing that could trigger a worldwide
financial crisis. If Carillion's liquidation means that all of its
debts become worthless paper, then other companies could go bankrupt
as a result, and of course hundreds of thousands of retired people
could lose their entire life savings.

The way a financial crisis occurs is that there's a panic, then a
recovery, and then a gradual, relentless falls, as one person and one
company after another is forced to sell its stocks and bonds to avoid
bankruptcy, so that stock prices continue to fall for years, as
happened in 1929-33. It's possible that the Carillion liquidation
could be a step in that process.

aeden wrote: I think your correct H but the dome will trigger later in the year to the waterfall zone you suggest.

Here's another opinion based on pattern that I got last night:

Unprecedented euphoria continues to inflate the markets to ever loftier levels. However, the technical and cyclical indicators suggest an imminent crash in stock prices. The leading scenario is that domestic stocks are in a blow-off resembling the 1980 platinum market top and the 1637 Tulip-mania peak. If the pattern repeats, then domestic stocks will reach their final top between January 22 and early February. After peaking, a monumental crash should develop – with stocks losing 50% or more of their current values in as little as two weeks.

My conclusion is that no pattern can predict this because the US stock market is in unprecedented territory. So everyone has to make up their own original scenario and see if it works. I'll call mine the "Speed of Light Bubble Leakage Analog" (SOLBLA).

John wrote: The above obscure remarks are in reference to the forced liquidation
of Britain's Carillion construction firm, which is very big news in
Europe today.

As the ZeroHedge story explains, tens of thousands of employees
could lose their jobs.

However, it doesn't entirely make sense to me that with £5.2 billion
in annual sales, that they couldn't find a way to make payments on net
debts of roughly £900m and a pension deficit of £587m, though that
will perhaps become more clear as more reporting is done.

Government officials and company officials are pointing fingers of
blame at each other, because the government kept providing contracts
to Carillion even though the company was clearly going bankrupt.

But this is exactly the kind of thing that could trigger a worldwide
financial crisis. If Carillion's liquidation means that all of its
debts become worthless paper, then other companies could go bankrupt
as a result, and of course hundreds of thousands of retired people
could lose their entire life savings.

The way a financial crisis occurs is that there's a panic, then a
recovery, and then a gradual, relentless falls, as one person and one
company after another is forced to sell its stocks and bonds to avoid
bankruptcy, so that stock prices continue to fall for years, as
happened in 1929-33. It's possible that the Carillion liquidation
could be a step in that process.

When I read this news, my first thought was that it reminds me of Ohio Life August 24, 1857. Or maybe NH Wolfe August 11, 1857.

The Political spillover effects where to get past mid terms, as they did here and the Brexit over the Pond.
Lets get to the point of the Dome effect and obscure points we factored in already.
Who is going to replace the effects since the Brits are facing another Easter island event
just as the Japanese had to come to terms with lost decades papered over with ETF flows.
I understand Johns point it may not be the shock anticipated.
The dome here and the rapids there for now. I still anticipate a narrowing since the recent human shock wave
does not usher in prosperity. Also, in 1990 dollars as sorted out the Executive Income Continuity Plan
when 4,276.8 billion imploded it happens basically in a blink of and eye.

The theoretical basis of SOLBLA is that human traders (floor traders in the pits) in the old days communicated at the speed of sound. The human brain is also wired to work at the speed of sound.

With algos now running the market, communication is at the speed of light. Algos are wired to work at the speed of light.

The ratio of the speed of light to the speed of sound is roughly 874,000. However, the ratio of the distance from the algo to the exchange versus the typical communication distance across the trading pit is say 20,000 (it's hard to estimate this).

But the idea is that price discovery occurs at the edge of a market and it is now the algos that do it in the short term. That is why most of the flash crash happened in a few minutes versus maybe a few hours, or maybe even not at all.

This effect also helped build the bubble to a greater height than otherwise. Computerized trading gapped the market up overnight for years and continues to do so.

The other main factor is the record amount of leverage.

The reason I created the acronym SOLBLA is to have a catchy secondary meaning (shit out of luck bla bla bla) which illustrates the futility of trying to find the top of this bubble. But I think it's pretty close.

People will believe the panic when they see it. The blogs will be swarming with pessimism and questions. People believe price.

And that conveys why we raised cash and will wait as the AI algo's are gamed.
The COT seen the same effect on the VIX.
They will print puts since that is Fiat.
The wasting is a design.

The tip of the Human Funnel will allow Brexits,
as the BOI and DNC Marxists extract all fungible services to collapse as centralized voter enclaves do and can collapse.
The Neo Feudal EU can count themselves lucky so far its only Horse meat in the lasagna.

Then we've got the solar and demographic cycles to contend with. John Hampson over at Solarcycles made some excellent solar and demographic correlations a few years back that in my estimation (which I've taken another careful look in the past week) say the stock market should be at the equivalent of the 1932 low now.

But what does it mean when the stock market is setting records instead? If energy and demographic factors really matter, as they should, will the failure of the market to follow them affect the speed of the decline?

My answer to that is certainly yes.

Higgenbotham wrote: > When I read this news, my first thought was that it reminds me of
> Ohio Life August 24, 1857. Or maybe NH Wolfe August 11,
> 1857.

There's also the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. The Fed responded
by flooding the markets with liquidity. Presumably, we can expect the
BOE to do something similar in reaction to the Carillion collapse.
The question is whether central banks are running out of bullets.