Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2025 3:09 am
We overestimated Russia's military strength, but underestimated the price they (or Putin) were willing to pay to accomplish these goals. Estimates are around 250,000 dead Russians over the past 3.5 years, and over 3,500 tanks destroyed, with independent verification. I've noticed over the last three-four months, vehicle losses have plummeted, alongside reports of seeing them on the battlefield. I expect they've exhausted their Soviet-era reserves and have to rely on whatever their manufacturing can produce. They've had far more luck mass producing artillery shells and drones than tanks/aircraft/IFVs. Over 90% of their assaults are Shahed drones, not ballistic missiles.
While their advances are still tiny, they're starting to accelerate. It's been around 1,900 square miles, about the equivalent of what they took in 2024, twice what they seized in 2023. A war of attrition is far from ideal, but Russia's never been averse to heavy losses. It's a cold-blooded calculation: they can replace them to a greater degree than Ukraine. It's not a guarantee it'll work, but even in the First World War, long attrition did eventually lead to a breakthrough.
Younger Ukrainians also have the option of fleeing to neighboring countries. It's against the law, but if things get desperate enough, they're unlikely to care. I still see it as more likely Ukraine will collapse than Russia, though I don't completely rule the latter out. A significant percentage of soldiers on both sides are in their 40s.
No, we won't rebuild our production to what it's going to need when war breaks out, but no one is ever prepared for a large-scale conflict. In 1914, all sides ran out of artillery within 3-4 months, forcing them to begin a crash production. However, it would have been worse for us in Japan had attacked in 1940, rather than 1941, so any preparation we make now will make things easier.
China's the world's assembly line, but unlike the United States in WWII, doesn't have the same innovation. Much of what they have managed has come from stealing data and with their electronics, crucial roles are filled by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all American allies. The CCP would have been better off if the Ukraine invasion hadn't happened, forcing us to realize how unprepared we were for a long conflict, but that could add additional pressure on them to act quickly.
While their advances are still tiny, they're starting to accelerate. It's been around 1,900 square miles, about the equivalent of what they took in 2024, twice what they seized in 2023. A war of attrition is far from ideal, but Russia's never been averse to heavy losses. It's a cold-blooded calculation: they can replace them to a greater degree than Ukraine. It's not a guarantee it'll work, but even in the First World War, long attrition did eventually lead to a breakthrough.
Younger Ukrainians also have the option of fleeing to neighboring countries. It's against the law, but if things get desperate enough, they're unlikely to care. I still see it as more likely Ukraine will collapse than Russia, though I don't completely rule the latter out. A significant percentage of soldiers on both sides are in their 40s.
No, we won't rebuild our production to what it's going to need when war breaks out, but no one is ever prepared for a large-scale conflict. In 1914, all sides ran out of artillery within 3-4 months, forcing them to begin a crash production. However, it would have been worse for us in Japan had attacked in 1940, rather than 1941, so any preparation we make now will make things easier.
China's the world's assembly line, but unlike the United States in WWII, doesn't have the same innovation. Much of what they have managed has come from stealing data and with their electronics, crucial roles are filled by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all American allies. The CCP would have been better off if the Ukraine invasion hadn't happened, forcing us to realize how unprepared we were for a long conflict, but that could add additional pressure on them to act quickly.