Higgenbotham wrote:
> My immediate concern is that Trump can't get anything done.
> Consider some of these search results:
>
https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+n ... 812Z5hBC-k
> As we head into the fall panic season which is particularly strong
> during the months of August, September and October on the 20 year
> interval post election year ending in 7 (1917, 1937, 1957, 1977,
> 1997) there have been panics every year on this interval, even in
> good times. The market now has real solid reasons to panic and
> tis the season. And let's not forget 1857, which is also on the
> same 20 year interval.
That's not the point. Outside of Obamacare, Obama couldn't get
anything done either. That's not something that triggers stock market
crashes.
You and I have both known for years that the stock market is
overpriced and highly unstable, and that a crash is coming with
certainty. The only difference between us is that I've completely
given up trying to predict dates, while you not only predict dates but
also, mind-bogglingly, bet money on them.
I always like to point out that even today nobody knows what triggered
the 1929 panic, or why it occurred on October 28, rather than a few
months earlier or later. I believe that no one will predict in
advance the date of the next panic, except by pure luck. Also, I
believe that the market will fall for years, as it did from 1929-32,
and that the smart people are not the ones who by luck predict the
date of the panic, but are the ones who handle the time after the
panic, and avoid being caught in the trap defined by the Principle of
Maximum Ruin that you and I used to joke about.
As for the October curse, everybody knows about it, and I tend to be
suspicious of things that everyone knows about.
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not attempting to give you investment
advice. I'm absolutely in awe of your ability to make a great deal of
money while still shorting the market at intervals. And of course I
haven't invested in stocks at all, so I don't know anything.
Also, it's possible that a stock market panic won't occur at all,
because of some geopolitical event. For example, suppose India and
Pakistan go to war. That would trigger a sharp stock market fall, but
the cause would be easily identifiable as the war, rather than a panic
that materializes out of the ether.
