Re: Financial topics
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Higher levels of gold, volatility & cash, Main Street assets to outperform Wall Street assets, and outperformance of an uber-barbell strategy that plays to the reality of deflation and the anticipation of more desperate inflationary policy responses.
Bond yields will be the barometer of Regime Change. Policy makers must induce a "good" rise in bond yields via fiscal policy. But their response won't happen overnight. In the meantime, investors should adopt the following 3 strategies:
1. Investors should continue looking for opportunities to add to their positions in gold and volatility; we would expect cash levels to remain high. Gold, vol & cash remain our favored positions to play the "Twilight Zone" of the QE-led bull market in risk assets.
2. Investors should be long Main St plays (e.g. regional banks & mass retailers), and short Wall St plays (e.g. broker/dealers & luxury retail). Policy makers will aim to maximize the spending power of the poor and minimize the spending power of the rich.
3. Investors should be long an “uber-barbell” of high-growth/high-quality stocks (F.A.N.G., global Best-of-Breed stocks and "yield plays") and underowned inflation assets (commodities, TIPS, EM and the UK). The high-growth/high-quality tail of this barbell reflects the fact that deflation and the collapse in all global rates to zero will exacerbate the rich valuations in these sectors. The more controversial belief in "inflation assets" reflects the distressed valuations that appear in these assets and the anticipation that policy will ultimately have to reverse the slump in inflation expectations. Two good hunting grounds for the secular contrarian: UK stocks...currently at 40-year lows versus Developed Markets (Chart 4)... t
Bond yields will be the barometer of Regime Change. Policy makers must induce a "good" rise in bond yields via fiscal policy. But their response won't happen overnight. In the meantime, investors should adopt the following 3 strategies:
1. Investors should continue looking for opportunities to add to their positions in gold and volatility; we would expect cash levels to remain high. Gold, vol & cash remain our favored positions to play the "Twilight Zone" of the QE-led bull market in risk assets.
2. Investors should be long Main St plays (e.g. regional banks & mass retailers), and short Wall St plays (e.g. broker/dealers & luxury retail). Policy makers will aim to maximize the spending power of the poor and minimize the spending power of the rich.
3. Investors should be long an “uber-barbell” of high-growth/high-quality stocks (F.A.N.G., global Best-of-Breed stocks and "yield plays") and underowned inflation assets (commodities, TIPS, EM and the UK). The high-growth/high-quality tail of this barbell reflects the fact that deflation and the collapse in all global rates to zero will exacerbate the rich valuations in these sectors. The more controversial belief in "inflation assets" reflects the distressed valuations that appear in these assets and the anticipation that policy will ultimately have to reverse the slump in inflation expectations. Two good hunting grounds for the secular contrarian: UK stocks...currently at 40-year lows versus Developed Markets (Chart 4)... t