Nathan G wrote:
> You know, I only just realized recently that you people seem to
> actually believe the world is coming to an end via the coming
> generation crisis. That of course is ludicrous because of the very
> principal of the generation theory. The generation theory, and
> similar mathematical approaches to history, clearly describe
> history as a continuous cycle of crisis and awakening. Yes a
> crisis is coming, but as Jesus predicted "there will be wars and
> rumors of wars, but this is not the end". It will be followed by a
> high, then an awakening, then an unraveling (although John's
> shortening of saeculum lengths seems to remove unraveling?), then
> another crisis, followed by a high, etc., etc. There are larger
> cycles of course, as described by Peter Turchin, that help shape
> the changing nature of one saeculum vs. another, but the point is
> that it's still cyclic.
I don't know who "you people" are, but there's a wide variety of
views.
Aedens makes many posts relating current events to "last times" in the
Bible, and he may actually believe that "the world is coming to an
end" in that sense.
Higgenbotham does not believe the world is coming to an end. He
relates current events to the horrific 1300s, with the Black Plague
and the 100 Years War, and he paints a picture of a world reverting to
the Middle Ages that won't be rebuilt again for centuries.
I'm more "optimistic" than either of them. As I've written many
times, we're headed for a new world war which will not end the world
any more than WW II ended the world. By the end of the war, every
nuclear weapon will have been used on some target. I estimate that
some 3-4 billion people will be killed by nuclear weapons, ground war,
disease and famine, with 3-4 billion people left over to rebuild the
world. However, I've also said that the Singularity is coming around
2030, after which it's possible to predict anything.
Other people, like vincecate and shoshin, don't foresee anything more
terrible happening than just another ordinary war.
Do you have a relationship with Peter Turchin (i.e., personally know
him)? He hates Generational Dynamics, and probably me as well.
