Financial topics

[aedens]

San Francisco Pier 14 fatal shooting suspect deported 5 times H. Taxpayers are idiots.

I do not consider them a actual source of facts since even before Eisenhower.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/ ... -cover-up/

We know whats coming. Just change a few words to keep them in suspense
with progressive and hidden taxes. Ask Greece how that bowl of soup feeling
will be soon. Most of us know what apathy fosters after 50 million runs them over.
Last month I went to metd to a Irish and Italian marrage and fact be plain Silvio flew in from
Italy to give his daughter away. One thing was in common who rules these young lives.
You tell me what defines civilization and we will both know then....
This I do know, only one thing can turn a Nation bent on its current path and that is fact.

[John]

> And yet, anarchy would be even worse.

> The anarchy that will eventually come will be worse than the
> anarchy that would have come.

> So my contribution to the theory of governance is that countries
> should focus their policies on making the non-crisis period as
> "nice" as possible, knowing that the can't do anything about the
> crisis period anyway.

> That seems to conflict with your regression and undershoot of the
> mean theory. That says the longer and further the stock market
> drfits from the underlying mean growth the further it will
> eventually fall when the music stops. Applying that theory overall
> would say that extending and pretending more during the nice
> period results in greater anarchy during the crisis period. My
> guess is that the relationship is not linear, but
> exponential.

The Pollyannaish statement of the law is "Regression to the mean,"
meaning that if the P/E ratio is historically high for years, then
eventually must return to the mean, which is 14. This is a
mathematically fallacious way of looking at it, since if P/E is
high for years, then the mean would permanently change.

The correct statement is "Reversion OF the mean," meaning that,
starting from any point, the average in the future will equal the
average in the past. This means that a historically high P/E will be
compensated for by a lower than average P/E in the future.

A web site reader took one of my graphs in 2007 and modified it as
follows:



There will have to be green stuff in the future to compensate for the
purple stuff. The Law of Mean Reversion means that the total area of
green stuff over time will equal the total area of the purple stuff.

Here are some article references from 2007:

** Investors in drunken orgy push the Dow up 311 points.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e071129

** A NY Times article discusses historical price/earnings ratio.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e070823


** How to compute the 'real value' of the stock market.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 070820.htm

When I was talking about anarchy, I was talking about geopolitical
anarchy, rather than financial anarchy, but the principal is
the same.

For example, China has been "extending and pretending" a lot
more than the U.S., and their financial disaster will be a lot
worse. However, that will all be mooted by the war.

[aedens]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2868992/
Spring is unkind for most of the next brood unable to look away from the android looking glass. h/t hh
Nature always bats last as they announce the "our kids education".
Of course anarchy comes in brown and black shirts also just as the purple gang was asked permission to do anything in that town
then. I always recoil today when they mention on the correct track given the current phase seen as
attacks ensued as individuals or group keeps support or admiration hidden to avoid political persecution
or the political suicide. The stress induced we already commented on as the cracks are already seen.

Conspiracy work we are told involves “boundary work” that is in doing things that where on the border of induced ethical beliefs.
As we know from the seen and unseen aguments, that is seen as a mere point on anothers compass since fear is another action
of stress for the utilization factors Hume explains rather clear in my view for the actual effects of it measured, it simply cannot.

Conscience is the sentinel of virtue. The calculations of misanthropes will keep the death cults employed and the quest for
alleged profit eating each other.

[Higgenbotham]

> My guess is that the relationship is not linear, but exponential.

A web site reader took one of my graphs in 2007 and modified it as
follows:



There will have to be green stuff in the future to compensate for the
purple stuff. The Law of Mean Reversion means that the total area of
green stuff over time will equal the total area of the purple stuff.


When I was talking about anarchy, I was talking about geopolitical
anarchy, rather than financial anarchy, but the principal is
the same.

For example, China has been "extending and pretending" a lot
more than the U.S., and their financial disaster will be a lot
worse. However, that will all be mooted by the war.

The graph your web site reader put together illustrates why extending and pretending could make the financial crisis exponentially worse. The graph shows more purple area as the PE is doubled versus previous occurrences and is also artificially held higher for a longer period of time. To get an equal amount of green area within a prescribed crisis window may mean that the PE has to go to zero to get it.

I think the reason this may be true and may also apply to geopolitical anarchy is that humans need to panic and hate in balance with their need to be greedy and cooperative over a given time period.

[aedens]

what market
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-r ... nance.html
last time we checked the 1346 nodes ran it all

[aedens]

I take that back they do... quack noted

I keep telling everyone don't be one of the "Dupes of Hazard" and yeah I should that one in a blog post soon as it is true. I had a great day today talking to an Apply employee as I was in there looking at all the devices that connect to phones relative to healthcare data being the privacy advocate I am. Well conversation drifted a bit and he ended up asking me about his Optum (United Healthcare) HSA (heatlh savings account) MasterCard. Well needless to say he will do a cash withdrawal on funds he may not need and use for healthcare. Why?

Get the cash and give United Healthcare (a huge data seller as well as an insurer) and MasterCard less data to sell about you. Your data goes to a company like Argus who runs analytics and scores you and does other behavioral analytics about you, and half of the stuff is flawed, the methods are proprietary where nobody can verify what spurious correlations some quant dreamed up to help the company profit stature. Don't think so..read this..here's one and even the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is buying your credit card data. They say they are learning, but if you believe that I can sell you a few bridges. You're getting code hosed folks and corporations benefit selling your data.

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/08/ ... re-of.html

You haven't seen nothing yet on spurious correlations until you see what pharmacy benefit managers do to "score" you again on medication adherence, i.e. will you take your meds. This is NOT medication monitoring, but rather some bull shit number crunching that some high paid quant working for an insurer dreamed up. Keep in mind there are former high frequency Trading firm quants that have left that business and work for insurers and other types of healthcare analytic firms. I love the one metric to where you get dinged if you do not use mail order prescription services...that is marketing and bunk and very spurious in nature and most of the 300 metrics have NOTHING to do with you taking your prescription medications.

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/06/ ... enter.html

I can't wait until this score hits some rich politician or some VC or PE guy and they get brought down to their knees with this superficial "scoring" routine that keeps inequality growing in the US. It's the perfect example of quantitated justifications for things that are not true, so yeah, Whole Food, yup let's the "Operation Perception-Deception" train and rake in some money. This is happening everywhere folks and time to wake up and not be one of the "Dupes of Hazard". Corporations are just not responsible for their code at all when they can compile it and even get some patents on some of the garbage out there so nobody can see it or use their money making formulas.

Again if you a man seeing a female doctor, you are dinged on that frigging score, take heed.

We have a real problem with "excess scoring" with consumers in the US and it serves to accelerate inequality on every corner. Here's a game made to exploit all of that...video is smashing...pretty eye catching with the visuals and the music...the direct correlation to data selling and inequality in the US and Whole Foods just got busted playing the game it appears.

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/06/ ... on-to.html

Pay cash when you can and keep the amount of data available to the blood sucking data sellers to a minimum.

[gerald]

> And yet, anarchy would be even worse.

> The anarchy that will eventually come will be worse than the
> anarchy that would have come.

After all these years in writing about generational theory, I've
reached the following conclusions:

Every country goes through a cycle around 80 years long, the length of
a human lifetime, because a new crisis arises when the survivors of
the previous crisis die off, losing the accumulated wisdom and lessons
learned.

So, out of that 80 years, there will be 10-20 years of anarchy,
bloodshed, slaughter, disaster. The other 60-70 years have the
potential to be fairly "nice," with only brief spurts of violence.

So my contribution to the theory of governance is that countries
should focus their policies on making the non-crisis period as "nice"
as possible, knowing that the can't do anything about the crisis
period anyway.

> "'Life as it is.' I have lived for over forty years
> and I've seen 'life as it is'. Pain. Misery.
> Cruelty beyond belief. I've heard all the voices of
> God's noblest creature -- moans from bundles of filth
> in the street. I've been a soldier and a slave. I've
> seen my comrades fall in battle or die more slowly
> under the lash in Africa. I've held them at the last
> moment. These were men who saw 'life as it is,' but
> they died despairing.

> No glory. No bray of last words. Only their eyes,
> filled with confusion, questioning, 'Why?'

> I do not think they were asking why they were dying,
> but why they had ever lived.

> When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where
> madness lies? Perhaps to be too practical is madness.
> To surrender dreams, this may be madness. To seek
> treasure where there is only trash. Too much sanity
> may be madness. But maddest of all -- to see life as
> it is, and not as it should be!"

cheer up, life is just a way of gathering experiences , one lifetime at a time.

The progression of events in civilizations are similar to events in nature ( humanity is part of nature ) In nature there are periods of relative calm and tranquility, punctuated by catastrophic change. We may be entering a period of such change, however it is up to us individually as to how we wish to view these events , even if they are up close and brutally personal.

cheers

[gerald]

China "Crosses Rubicon" With Stock Bailout; BofA Says PBoC Risks "Hurting Its Credibility"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-0 ... redibility

" Late on Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that China’s central bank is set to inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp which will in turn use the funds to help brokerages expand their businesses and reinvigorate stocks. Translation: China’s central bank is now underwriting brokers’ margin lending businesses. "

hmmm

When I studied economics in school there was a saying that " capitalists would sell you the rope to hang them with if there was a profit in it."
If at that time I would have said that there will be a time when the communists would bailout the stock market to keep prices up -- I would have been told that is ridicules. We live under the rein of the queen of hearts.

[aedens]

That cat is dead, Erwin, It ran out of oxygen in the damn box.
I was warned to let the dead bury the dead since they care not what they tell others who are living. Individual choices for sure but we can recover
what was the point.
It was said to another "The only reason why I spared the righteous in the city of Sodom and Gomorrah, is because Abraham prayed for them,
and if my people do not do the same, I will not spare them either".

[Higgenbotham]

The worldwide system looks finished to me.