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guest wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:44 am Do you think the Chinese will blink if Pelosi visits Taiwan?

If she rolls in with an armada showing support for what is their bottom line, THIS will be the pivotal event of the year. Something will happen somewhere as a response, perhaps not a direct response but activation of domestic Leftist terrorists

FullMoon wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:55 am

guest wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:44 am Do you think the Chinese will blink if Pelosi visits Taiwan?

If she rolls in with an armada showing support for what is their bottom line, THIS will be the pivotal event of the year. Something will happen somewhere as a response, perhaps not a direct response but activation of domestic Leftist terrorists

The pivotal event will be the CCP’s banking and financial failure. They may try to distract attention with Pelosi’s visit, but a visiting non head of state will not compare with their economic problem. They have large demonstrations about withholding citizen life savings, so who would really care about Nancy? I mean if you were losing your life savings, would you care where she visits?

They have also cried wolf too many times, yelling and screaming and doing nothing. I’m not sure their PR efforts should be taken seriously. I mean they were rattling sabers at Russia one week and holding joint fleet exercises with them a few weeks later.

They might try an out and out invasion. That might be large enough in scale to distract from the banking problem. Still, the time it would take to set it up would leave the Pelosi visit a distant memory, and I’m not sure they will try to combine an expensive invasion with an economic collapse. Then too, Russia’s experience with the Ukraine war might make them hesitant. Is war really the way to profit in the short term, if at all?

I recently bought a Mac Studio, and was too much focused on the UPS tracking software. The Studio was built north of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), and passed through Hong Kong to Taiwan and Alaska. If they are confronting the US over Nancy during a financial collapse, do they want to upset Taiwan and Apple just now? More broadly, can they afford to lose their exports just now? The problem is that they have built more stuff domestically than they can profit from. Can they afford to cut their exports, their current real source of profit?

We’ll see. For a long time I have seen autocratic rule as less effective and efficient than true capitalism and democracy, but was unable to see how the switch might occur. Suddenly, it seems possible to foresee a CCP collapse. The next CCP gathering should be interesting. I have noted that S&H crises have an element of nations adjusting to a change in technology. Cultures must catch up with the machines. Thus, it is nigh on inevitable to see the new replacing the old, the progressives overcoming the conservatives. While I won’t comment here on the domestic situation, I see Putin and Xi as suffering grand self inflicted wounds. I’m sort of expecting the collapse of the old in a crisis. The question is how ugly they choose to make the collapse.

JDav wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:41 am

finders keepers wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:19 am

Guest wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:24 am

Excellent find.

As a white male, I know I am in trouble.

Yes, thanks for the link. That is a good overall framework to describe how important a man can be, regardless of his flaws.

Yes. I posted this a couple of weeks ago on the Societal Collapse thread - "Like him or hate him, he forced those on the left to reveal their true selves. He also exposed the two-tiered level of justice in this country. Law no longer matters, only the people enforcing it."

Unfortunately, I think the world as a whole is beyond redemption, and that Trump was a respite, not a savior. The whole global system will collapse under the weight of its own corruption and immorality. The few good men we have left are not enough to stem that tide. We have to hit bottom before things can truly be made better, and we've a ways to go for that to happen.

I said it once a while back - preparing for what's coming is more than growing your own food, moving away from cities, etc. It is also arming your children and grandchildren with the spiritual and intellectual tools they'll need to rebuild, because the burden will fall on them, not us. Homeschooling with a classical liberal arts curriculum is probably the only way that will happen, as even the best schools these days have forgotten the real purpose of education.

Very sharp. Nice post. You sound a lot like that other guy on this board, forget what his name is --- haven't seen him post in a while.

Bob Butler wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:36 pm We’ll see. For a long time I have seen autocratic rule as less effective and efficient than true capitalism and democracy, but was unable to see how the switch might occur. Suddenly, it seems possible to foresee a CCP collapse. The next CCP gathering should be interesting. I have noted that S&H crises have an element of nations adjusting to a change in technology. Cultures must catch up with the machines. Thus, it is nigh on inevitable to see the new replacing the old, the progressives overcoming the conservatives. While I won’t comment here on the domestic situation, I see Putin and Xi as suffering grand self inflicted wounds. I’m sort of expecting the collapse of the old in a crisis. The question is how ugly they choose to make the collapse.

How are Russia and China wounded compared to the USA? Even though China has arguably more issues than Russia (oddly) at the moment, they are at least far more unified as countries. When does the "collapse" of either occur, in your view?

US Intelligence Tells Lawmakers Russian Casualties Surpass 75,000 In Ukraine
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUL 29, 2022 - 12:34 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... pass-75000

Russian National Charged with Conspiring to Have U.S. Citizens Act as Illegal Agents of the Russian Government
Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, July 29, 2022
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/russian- ... government

finders keepers wrote: Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:51 pmHow are Russia and China wounded compared to the USA? Even though China has arguably more issues than Russia (oddly) at the moment, they are at least far more unified as countries. When does the "collapse" of either occur, in your view?

Well, autocratic governments don’t have to worry about being voted out of office, so we’ll leave that alone.

China’s economic problems are severe enough that some are claiming that their collapse is already underway. Domestically, they spent a lot of manpower building stuff they don’t need. China is full of ‘Ghost’ factories, skyscrapers, reservoirs, residences and the like. In short, the supply is currently much greater than the demand. If you are communist, does this mean the capitalist law of supply and demand doesn’t effect you? When you are drowning in surplus, what do you do with all that labor?

With the help of scams and the nature of banking, the banks do not have the cash on hand to return life savings to the people. Even in the US a bank only keeps a fraction of the cash deposited to return to depositors, with most of the money going into investments. Why would all depositors demand cash back at once? Thus they can’t return people’s money as many are demanding. Pull lots of investments? Do only necessary work? Turn on the printing presses to create money? Roll over citizens with tanks? If faith in the banks fails, the whole economic situation collapses. A few oligarchs get ultra rich while the people get shafted? For years the CCP has avoided revolution and a lack of human rights by providing economic security. Compared to the chaos of the warlord years, it is easy to understand the people’s quiescence. It is hard to see this policy pushing through the current problem, and the warlord years have faded from living memory.

Russia’s economic problems seems less, but the sanctions have hurt. There are protests, but autocracies suppress and ignore those. Still, waging an unpopular war is problematic. And Russia has a more immediate military situation to maintain. Can they outspend NATO in tanks, ships, aircraft, ammunition and other supplies? They too could be drifting towards collapse. The sooner they back down, the less it will hurt. I don’t see Putin backing down.

I’m not exactly up on assassinations and coups. Still, if you are steering your country to attempt the impossible while not taking decisive action to release the stress, they seem likely to happen. The Ukraine invasion hasn’t fully blown up in Russia’s face yet, nor has the Chinese economy fallen totally apart. But I have not seen the flexibility required by the autocratic regimes to solve the problems that their countries are facing. If they can’t, push will eventually come to shove, and drastic measures will have to be tried.

The US? Do we have protests? Do we have empty grocery stores? Are we blocking withdrawals? Are our troops significantly engaged? To us, the crisis is whether Trump can get the presidency back. I can understand why lots of progressives hope he does get the Republican nomination as he has enough baggage that he would be easily defeated.

Short answer? If Russia runs out of military equipment in Ukraine and NATO is willing to continue supply, collapse. If they can’t avoid the economic problems in China, collapse.

I can understand why lots of progressives hope he does get the Republican nomination as he has enough baggage that he would be easily defeated.

Be careful what you wish for. I remember when liberals were glad after Watergate because the GOP would not win the White House after a scandal that big in their lifetimes. Six years later their lifetimes ended...after they celebrated Reagan's nomination because he was so far right he didn't have a prayer.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:21 am

I can understand why lots of progressives hope he does get the Republican nomination as he has enough baggage that he would be easily defeated.

Be careful what you wish for. I remember when liberals were glad after Watergate because the GOP would not win the White House after a scandal that big in their lifetimes. Six years later their lifetimes ended...after they celebrated Reagan's nomination because he was so far right he didn't have a prayer.

Agreed. It is a dangerous tactic to boost the other party. We seem to be in a see saw between the parties. Either one will be aggressive in pushing their agenda more than is wanted, driving the people towards their opponents. FDR gave his party a long term advantage, but it hasn't carried into the long unravelling. You would think that the fiascos of Watergate and January 6 would create a long term edge, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

They thought the same thing when Trump won the nomination in 2016. Hillary expected a certain victory, to the degree she didn't bother campaigning in the Rust Belt. The GOP bigwigs mostly felt: "Dear God, we're stuck with this guy?"

Democrats are doing the same thing in numerous House races, hoping the far-right candidate will be victorious so they'll be easier to defeat. Given the miserable economy and Biden's anemic approval ratings, they could be making a big mistake.

Disclaimer: I am fanatically pro-life.
Do you think the SCOTUS decision will help or hurt the GOP this November?