Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Above I noted where the Nasdaq 100 may meet some resistance. On the S&P 500 the gap area shown in the chart below should present some resistance. And the Dow still has the actual resistance area noted on the 1929 equivalent even though the timeline has slipped.

I'm giving it a try here because I had considered this time frame to be more likely for a high in the stock market than January. On the 45 year cycle, the window I had noted was February 5-23 and the midpoint of that was hit Friday as well as the full moon. Woof-Woof!! Also, there are lags in sentiment correlations I had done that point to roughly February 14. Extremes in put call do not normally put the high in at the extremes; there is normally a lag time. This is from my notes: "ISEE The 10 day moving average of all equities made a high at 249 on April 15, 2010. The 10 day moving average of all equities made a high at 266 on December 14, 2010 and January 14, 2011. The most recent high was at 195 on January 17. Extrapolating the exact same lag time, the high in the current market would be due on February 14, 2014 or February 21, 2014. The first estimate uses May 13, 2010 as the high." The final reason is Japan; as mentioned the other night, the Nikkei is showing a valid crash pattern and the timelines for the loss of faith cycle in Japan due to the government and TEPCO failure to fix Fukushima for nearly 3 years are approaching. Still on track: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickc ... ow=&time=6

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[Higgenbotham]

Back to the Nasdaq 100.

When I made the daily chart of the expanding triangle, I hadn't thought to mark the 3683, which is the calculation noted on the big chart on the previous page, which covers the past 14 years. So I did the daily chart over again and marked the 3683 with a big red dot. Now it's easy to see how on a short term basis the market is honing in on the long term target. Whether it will really get there or not is still unknown, and I will use the short term patterns to try to determine it as it happens in real time. In the past, I have seen the market come to my pre-calculated levels to within a fraction of a point. This one looks like it wants to.

I've done some google searches and nobody has identified this, so therefore it has a chance. The ones nobody finds are the ones that can work. I've never had one work that many others have also found. Also, if I watch the volume and there is no appreciable volume at the target high, it means the market is unaware of it, doesn't believe it, is worn out by the time it gets there, etc., and is just fulfilling its destiny. In those cases, the targets will work very well.

Because, let's face it, anybody who thought the Nasdaq reflation effort was going to crash and burn has already sold or already gone short long ago. And anybody who doesn't believe that isn't going to sell here.

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[Higgenbotham]

There have been articles here and there talking about how "practical Gen X'ers" have been taking over top management positions at companies and cutting costs, "doing what they know how to do best". That would be a generational mechanism that would explain how the economy can go into deflation and depression once the Gen X'ers take over. What reminded me of this was I saw a chart tonight that said Thompson Reuters is projecting corporate revenues will only grow 0.8% this quarter.

http://solarcycles.files.wordpress.com/ ... /14fe3.png

Generation X And The New Frugality
By NEIL HOWE

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/20 ... frugality/

[aedens]

This rests now on liberal millennials and as they respectfully urged Congress to move as quickly as possible to raise the debt limit and just did.
They got it, and will reap what they sow. Three hundred percent medical premium increase and more than 15 million people will deplete their savings
to cover medical bills. Another 10 million will be unable to pay for necessities such as rent, food and utilities because of those bills. Consumers understand
cutting back to survive and they plow ahead with trillions more on the Hill. Many suggest just staying off the radar but a active dialog is key.
Ok, good luck with another wave of locusts coming. Can ACA help avert the cascading bankruptcy business will and still is the question. As we know here ACA is
the back door Government property seizure business model.

Gold priced it in already and will approach $1400.00 so linkages now as ordered bundled goods will link and bury even more. Business does not pay taxes and
will collapse instantly here when they do. Do you still wonder why second ordered goods exist yet elsewhere?

The Second-Order Dilemma of Public Goods and Capital Accumulation they suggest by a voluntary participation game that the accumulation of
public goods can mitigate the second-order dilemma in the long run.

History says no.
http://www.jec.senate.gov/republicans/p ... e865cacf66

[Higgenbotham]

The Western Powers are bankrupt : Japan, Europe and the US are financially and morally bankrupt. Starting with Japan, they had 2 choices in 2011. Either clean up Fukushima and rebuild it or do nothing and paper it over. They took the second choice, which is the choice a bankrupt power would take. The rest of the Western powers did nothing to stop it because they are bankrupt too. Moving over to Europe and the US, for the past 6 years, they have had 2 choices. Either follow centuries of the rule of law and take bankrupt corporations through bankruptcy or do nothing and paper it over. They also took the second choice, which is also the choice that a bankrupt power would take. The second choice involves eating all the capital of the society, all the capital that those who can make a profit have accumulated over time, and giving it to bankrupt corporations so they can pretend to make profits and stay afloat until they eat through the rest of the accumulated capital. Over in Europe, we read in the news Friday that there are bankrupt governments who have given money to bankrupt banks who are making loans to bankrupt corporations so they don't have to report the losses and admit that they are bankrupt. Bankrupt governments in Europe are saying that it is unacceptable for bankrupt banks to be doing this. In the US, the bankrupt Central Bank is wantonly spewing trillions in reserve currency all over the world hoping that bankrupt governments and bankrupt corporations in the rest of the world can cover the losses that are being created by issuing those trillions in reverse currency and somehow keep the bankrupt corporations in the US afloat.

[vincecate]

The news hussman article is out and he also talks about patterns for the setup of a crash or bear market:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140217.htm

[Higgenbotham]

I think Hussman has the right patterns pictured there. A couple of other guys picked them up first.

This is another series of patterns. The March 2009 low to the flash crash to the next high were about equal in time (marked on the big chart as 61 and 122 weeks). Also the March 2009 low to the downgrade crash to the recent high were about equal in time (marked on the big chart as 126 and 252 weeks). Then I boxed the topping patterns in purple on the big chart. The 2 small daily charts show the boxed areas in greater detail. We can note how the pattern of 8 days up on the "beehive smash" of the early short sellers is identical at the end of both of the boxed areas (boxed in red).

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[John]

> There have been articles here and there talking about how
> "practical Gen X'ers" have been taking over top management
> positions at companies and cutting costs, "doing what they know
> how to do best". That would be a generational mechanism that
> would explain how the economy can go into deflation and depression
> once the Gen X'ers take over. What reminded me of this was I saw
> a chart tonight that said Thompson Reuters is projecting corporate
> revenues will only grow 0.8% this quarter.

> http://solarcycles.files.wordpress.com/ ... /14fe3.png

> Generation X And The New Frugality
> By NEIL HOWE

> http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/20 ... frugality/

The "New Frugality" is the mirror image of the previous discussion on
the "New Criminality." If CNBC analysts lie with impunity about stock
valuations, and Obama lies with impunity about Obamacare, then it's
impossible to trust anyone, and you have to do everything for
yourself. I know that's the way I feel, and I'm not a Gen-Xer.

[Higgenbotham]

I totally agree, and that's how you get a loss of confidence that leads to a stock market crash, which then leads to more cost cutting and more doing things for yourself.

[Higgenbotham]

Each $1 of credit [in China] added the equivalent of 17 cents in GDP in the first quarter of 2013, down from 29 cents the previous year and 83 cents in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-1 ... mates.html

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had wanted to give the ailing Greek government a "demonstration of solidarity" by committing this spring to further support from Europe after the May 25 poll.

"He sees the danger that without the prospect of further aid, radical parties in Greece could make big gains in the election," leading the government in Athens to collapse, the magazine reported.

However, it said Merkel's own domestic political concerns led her to veto the move over fears that the eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) could benefit from a fresh debate about aid for Greece.

The AfD, which wants to abandon the euro and return to the deutschmark, was formed last year and failed to win any seats in September's general election.

But it scored seven percent in a recent poll, far above the three-percent hurdle for seats in the European Parliament.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/busine ... or-greece/