Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

June 4, 2022
How Would NATO Fare on the Battlefield with Russia?
By Robert Hunter
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... ussia.html

Putin thinks West will blink first in war of attrition, Russian elites say
Catherine Belton - Yesterday 3:00 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... ar-AAY1VL0

Trudeau accuses China of ‘extremely troubling’ harassment of Canadian jets
Adela Suliman - Yesterday 7:01 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tr ... ar-AAY29KK

As Ukraine loses troops, how long can it keep up the fight?
By JOHN LEICESTER and HANNA ARHIROVA
2 hours ago
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 525e34c948

Russia controls 20 percent of Ukraine 100 days after invasion | USA TODAY
30,602 viewsJun 3, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXOFQDKCXbw

100 days of economic war: Can the West win against Russia?
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... nst-russia

Russia-Ukraine war at 100 days: Compassion fatigue is here
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... ue-is-here

** 04-Jun-2022 World View: Syria's Awakening era

DaKardii wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:52 pm > Hey, John. I just thought of something.

> If I recall correctly you have stated that the war in Syria is a
> non-crisis war for the Syrian people, and that the country is in
> an Awakening era. But what do you think of the idea of the war
> being a Second Turning reset, much like how World War II was
> arguably a First Turning reset for Russia?

A First Turning (1T) reset occurs when something happens that destroys
the existing generational relationships -- such as a major crisis war
or forced relocation of the population. The society then enters a
Recovery Era, and essentially has to reconstruct the generational
relationships, and this usually involves rigid new rules and
institutions to prevent a recurrence of the crisis.

An Awakening (2T) era occurs because of a generational split between
the survivors of the crisis war versus the generation growing up after
the war, whose members are impatient with the rigid new rules and
institutions.

In the case of Syria, there's no "reset" about it. Syria is just
continuing with its Awakening/Unraveling (2/3T) era patterns. Around
2040, assuming that the human race hasn't yet been wiped out by WW
III, by the Singularity, or by a new virus, then Syria will enter a
new generational Crisis era (4T), and head for a new generational
crisis civil war.

** 04-Jun-2022 World View: Letting Russia win in Ukraine

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:54 am > Putin thinks West will blink first in war of attrition, Russian elites say
> Catherine Belton - Yesterday 3:00 AM
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... ar-AAY1VL0

> The Kremlin has seized on recent signs of hesitancy by some
> European governments as an indication the West could lose focus in
> seeking to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially as
> global energy costs surge following the imposition of sanctions on
> Moscow.

> Putin “believes the West will become exhausted,” said one
> well-connected Russian billionaire, speaking on the condition of
> anonymity for fear of retribution. Putin had not expected the
> West’s initially strong and united response, “but now he is trying
> to reshape the situation, and he believes that in the longer term,
> he will win,” the billionaire said. Western leaders are vulnerable
> to election cycles, and “he believes public opinion can flip in
> one day.”

There's been a lot of talk about this from analysts, that America and
Europe are going to become exhausted and lose interest in the Ukraine
war, leaving Russia free to win. In fact, it was reported in the
early days of the war that Biden was pressuring Zelenskyy to simply
surrender and let Russia win, or at least capture new territory.

Those who think that everyone will lose interest and just let Russia
take over Ukraine don't realize what's going on. This is related to
the "Regeneracy process" that I've written about many times, including
in my article,

** 3-Apr-22 World View -- History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e220403


Imagine if the Russians scored a significant victory -- capturing Kiev,
killing Zelenskyy, or something similar -- and it was claimed that
Ukraine lost because America or EU lost interest and stopped supplying
weapons. There would be a huge public reaction, especially since
this is a generational Crisis era.

I don't know what the scenario will be, but I believe that, one way or
another, the Ukraine war is going to set off a chain reaction that
will lead to WW III.

I think this war is the Balkans War or Spanish Civil War of WWIII.

John wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:44 pm Imagine if the Russians scored a significant victory -- capturing Kiev,
killing Zelenskyy, or something similar -- and it was claimed that
Ukraine lost because America or EU lost interest and stopped supplying
weapons. There would be a huge public reaction, especially since
this is a generational Crisis era.

I don't know what the scenario will be, but I believe that, one way or
another, the Ukraine war is going to set off a chain reaction that
will lead to WW III.

Why would there be a "huge public reaction" if the US is supposedly not directly fighting Russia anyway? All of the Ukrainian "support" just seems to be another social/media campaign that appears far more similar to virtue signaling. What would make Americans really care about anything presumably would be a change in the standard of life that is directly related to war. I don't see any Americans starving ... yet. The media is clearly pro-war, but I don't think there is a large American pro war segment, from any political leaning or party affiliation - from the people at least.

If the US keeps meddling, poking, supplying and proxy-fighting the Russians, yes the first phase of WWIII may in fact already be here, as many on this forum have stated (including me, amazingly).

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-b ... ce-design/

Not Built for Purpose: The Russian Military’s Ill-Fated Force Design

An interesting article talking about how Russia has structured its military and giving some reasons for its poor performance.

TLDR: The combination of professional soldiers and conscripts doesn't work all that well. There was also an effort to increase the number of "battalion tactical groups" (or independent combat units) that led to an increased number with lower staffing which lead to increased fragility. Along with that is the fact that Russia designed its forces to fight a different kind of war that it wasn't actually equipped to fight. A fast war that concluded before all of the shortcomings appeared would have been possible. Now it is a grinding war of attrition which is causing Russia to dig deeper and deeper into reserves.

** 05-Jun-2022 World View: Flurry of missile tests around North and South Korea

North Korea launched a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles on
Sunday. North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile launches this
year, from hypersonic weapons to test firing its largest
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time in
nearly five years.

In response, South Korea and the United States fired eight
surface-to-surface missiles.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to grow, and they'll grow
if, as expected, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon for the first time
in five years.

Meanwhile, China has been harassing and intercepting Australian
surveillance planes over international waters in the South China Sea.

-- South Korea, U.S. launch eight missiles in response to North Korea
missile firings
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-06-05/
(Reuters, 5-Jun-2022)

Israeli Air Force simulates widescale strike on Iran nuclear facilities
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-a ... acilities/

Starving Russian commander says Vladimir Putin has thrown troops to slaughter in Ukraine
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... r-27142522

‘They’re in hell’: Hail of Russian artillery tests Ukrainian morale
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/th ... ar-AAY3MQM

UK says Russia’s gains in eastern Ukraine have been ‘slow and costly’; Putin blames West for food, energy crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/04/russia- ... dates.html

Biden says Ukraine might have to give Russia land in ‘negotiated settlement’
https://nypost.com/2022/06/03/biden-say ... ssia-land/

Russia Threatens To 'Strike The West' If US-Supplied Rockets Hit Its Territory
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -territory

Israel Warns It Will Use “Right To Self-Defense” To Keep Nukes Out Of Iran
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Intern ... -Iran.html

Ukraine Latest: UK to Send Rockets; Zelenskiy Visits Troops
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrai ... 24194.html

John wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:22 pm ** 05-Jun-2022 World View: Flurry of missile tests around North and South Korea

North Korea launched a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles on
Sunday. North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile launches this
year, from hypersonic weapons to test firing its largest
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time in
nearly five years.

In response, South Korea and the United States fired eight
surface-to-surface missiles.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to grow, and they'll grow
if, as expected, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon for the first time
in five years.

Meanwhile, China has been harassing and intercepting Australian
surveillance planes over international waters in the South China Sea.

-- South Korea, U.S. launch eight missiles in response to North Korea
missile firings
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-06-05/
(Reuters, 5-Jun-2022)

Will war on the Korean peninsula occur before an attack on Taiwan?

Or Israel attack on Iran?