Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Reagan once said that the most frightening words in the English language were: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help”

Long before, Churchill noted that the government that is big enough to to give you everything you want is also big enough to take everything you have.

Longer still before that, Benjamin Franklin said that those who sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither!

Looks like we will need to re-learn these truths again!

‘I work just 4 hours a day’: This 29-year-old’s side hustle brings in $2 million a year—a look at her typical day

Published Mon, Dec 26 20229:32 AM EST

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/26/this-29 ... -week.html


Aside from the barrage of articles in the mass media quoting billionaires scolding you for being envious and slothful, which prevents billionaires from making even more billions, we get an equally frantic barrage of articles implying that if you would just get off your stupid, lazy ass and "hustle" that, you too, can make $2 million per year. According to the true believers, this 29 year old has found a need in the free market economy and filled that need. This is the capitalist system at work.

I would like to offer an alternative and likely more probable explanation to what has actually happened here. First, this is a lottery economy. Essentially, that means that there are a few big winners and a lot of losers. Second, trillions of dollars been thrown at our economic problems in the past couple years. According to Austrian economists, that tends to lead to distortions. Both of these ideas have been discussed in detail in this forum.

Most everyone knows that there are some youtube users who have made videos, hit it big with millions of views and made a lot of money. It can't be said with certainty how many people are trying to replicate that or how many hours they are putting into trying, but let's assume for the sake of argument that for every one winner who hits the lottery and makes $2 million per year there are a thousand who try each year and don't. And let's say those thousand put in an average of $10,000 in productive effort before they realize it isn't going to work. That would mean that while $2 million per year comes out of the magical youtube cornucopia, $10 million worth of productive effort gets wasted trying. That's a net loss for those trying to cash in on the lottery economy.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 12:35 amMost everyone knows that there are some youtube users who have made videos, hit it big with millions of views and made a lot of money. It can't be said with certainty how many people are trying to replicate that or how many hours they are putting into trying, but let's assume for the sake of argument that for every one winner who hits the lottery and makes $2 million per year there are a thousand who try each year and don't. And let's say those thousand put in an average of $10,000 in productive effort before they realize it isn't going to work. That would mean that while $2 million per year comes out of the magical youtube cornucopia, $10 million worth of productive effort gets wasted trying. That's a net loss for those trying to cash in on the lottery economy.

I follow the History Guy and Everyday Astronaut on YouTube. What they have in common is an intense interest in a certain subject, a knowledge of that subject, a bunch of people who share that interest to some extent, and it being a complex enough subject that it is easy to write a bunch of interesting articles. Whether it is odd tidbits of history that should be remembered or space knowledge, this combination can get you a following, maybe even to the moon. People on this site might be into the generational cycles, but there doesn't seem to be an audience or enough cycles to gather an audience.

Bob Butler wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:37 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 12:35 amMost everyone knows that there are some youtube users who have made videos, hit it big with millions of views and made a lot of money. It can't be said with certainty how many people are trying to replicate that or how many hours they are putting into trying, but let's assume for the sake of argument that for every one winner who hits the lottery and makes $2 million per year there are a thousand who try each year and don't. And let's say those thousand put in an average of $10,000 in productive effort before they realize it isn't going to work. That would mean that while $2 million per year comes out of the magical youtube cornucopia, $10 million worth of productive effort gets wasted trying. That's a net loss for those trying to cash in on the lottery economy.

I follow the History Guy and Everyday Astronaut on YouTube. What they have in common is an intense interest in a certain subject, a knowledge of that subject, a bunch of people who share that interest to some extent, and it being a complex enough subject that it is easy to write a bunch of interesting articles. Whether it is odd tidbits of history that should be remembered or space knowledge, this combination can get you a following, maybe even to the moon. People on this site might be into the generational cycles, but there doesn't seem to be an audience or enough cycles to gather an audience.

There are certain categories of videos that someone having the goal of monetizing a channel or selling information would target. The 29 year old in the above link targeted computer skills, which would have a lot of demand. Within the category of computer skills, there would be numerous people who have attempted to target it with the goal of making a living and failed. The question is how many have failed and what did they lose versus how many have succeeded and what did they gain. If the losses are more than the gains, it is a net drain on the economy.

I think the categories of videos you are pointing to would fit more into expanding hobbies or interests rather than having a goal of making a living. History Guy looks to be averaging about 70K views per video. I don't know if he's trying to monetize his site but, if he is, at 70K views per video I don't think he is making much money. There's a whole industry dedicated to making those estimates.

The above guess that History Guy is not making much money on youtube appears to be incorrect. According to this estimate, he is making about 7K per month. https://www.noxinfluencer.com/youtube/c ... RIFBRV6VXQ I would have guessed he is just supplementing his retirement with a couple thousand per month of extra income.

It looks like History Guy has hit the supplemental retirement income lottery. When you see the empty cat food or dog food shelf at the supermarket, you know it wasn't History Guy who was buying it, unless it was for his cat or dog.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:45 pm Account value often follows Elliott Wave. Below is my account value for the past 6 months. The big spikes down near the beginning and end are where I drew money out. Between the days where I drew money out 5 waves up are marked in red, with wave 3 being the longest in time and greatest in increase. The wave 4 drawdown is where I started going short at 4100 too early as discussed here at that time.

After making 5 waves up, it's time to be cautious because a big correction can come. Right now I think about what would be a conservative amount to trade, then I cut that in half. This is can be seen at the beginning of April and this month, where equity grew very slowly as I got more conservative trying to avoid a big correction.

I've hit the supplemental income lottery 3 times this year. The first 2 times are shown above. The continuation of that chart is shown below. Tomorrow I plan to draw the excess out of my account and take it down to the baseline level from late September.

What will next year bring? In the lottery economy, it's hard to say.

One thing that can be said about this year is that it is highly likely there will be more corruption and fraud this year than there was last year. In playing the lottery economy, it is a good assumption that anything you are seeing in front of you will display more corruption and fraud than your recent experience. For example, if you are trading stocks as I have been, if stocks that you traded were manipulated last year, assume that this year there will be even greater degrees of manipulation and fraud.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 12:42 pm It looks like History Guy has hit the supplemental retirement income lottery. When you see the empty cat food or dog food shelf at the supermarket, you know it wasn't History Guy who was buying it, unless it was for his cat or dog.

During that initial interview on Wednesday, Maria shared a startling revelation.

“I’m sure there are thousands if not millions of seniors in this nation that are like me that can’t afford their medication that either get their medication and eat cat food,” she said.

When ABC4 visited with Maria on Friday, she explained further. “Some say ‘Well, it’s starting to taste more like tuna.’ Or, they add something to it to make it have a little more flavor,” said Maria. “They already have a cat at home. So, they can buy a case. They have a can for each meal. Whether or not they have something to go with it at that point isn’t important to them in their minds because they figure they’re getting the nutrition that they need from the cat food.”

Maria clarifies she’s never eaten cat food to survive, but it’s heartbreaking to hear that some of her friends are. “If I didn’t have my family I don’t know where I’d be. I’d be in a box under a bridge.”

https://www.abc4.com/news/some-seniors- ... o-survive/

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 9 percent of people age 65 and older in the state of Delaware are living in poverty. Their poverty is so severe that they are eating dog food because they cannot afford to buy human food. But senior citizens in Frederica, Delaware, are now filling their pantries with good wholesome food thanks to help from their community.

The small community of just over 700 people, located outside Dover, came to the rescue to help their senior citizens. The local director of the senior center took the story to WBOC-TV and just a short time later Walmart Community Foundation donated $25,000 for food. As a result, the senior center is now able to provide bags of food for their low-income seniors.

About 40 percent of people who come to the center are low income, many living on just $400-$500 a month.

http://blackinamerica.com/content/26139 ... to-survive

I was told years ago that the federal government regulated dog and cat food so that it would be nutritious enough for poor people who couldn't afford any other food.

Right now I think about what would be a conservative amount to trade, then I cut that in half. This is can be seen at the beginning of April and this month, where equity grew very slowly as I got more conservative trying to avoid a big correction.

Dead cat and money flow index into sweeps is our first blush over the last few weeks into the march sweeps is the plan here also.
We will hold bearx into June ish or then some as noted. As we seen some tax slave payers sectors are past fish head rot not dealing
enough with the rampant theft and just plain slaughter zones. They clavary is not coming as they slow roll to toe tag.
Rent moratorium appeal processes has killed the developing market.
No one sane will risk investment capital as months and months and then more months for foot dragging and dead end arbitration processes.
Yea taxes are up also. Decay zones will be filled with grifters for grifters by grifters.
No one we know is dropping a nickle in bish looted and tax theft enclaves of design in plain sight.

Last night guy with pipe atttacks people and is buzz light year past bat shit insane.
Arrested, checked at Hospital released no place to put the lunatic.
Long story short they released the same lunatic and smacking pedestians with pipe. Rinse and repeat. Talk with a liberal half-wit we must do something. Other than move miles away they are too damned stupid to survive and will be looted and dead sooner than later.
Barny Fife will save the last bullet for Himself was all we could offer for these damned fools.

4,730 left the State Offically. Its a Hell of alot higher than that. Uniparty know your past stupid sheep for sausuage.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/q3-2022 ... flee-fixed

https://chat.openai.com/chat
It is not accurate to say that the federal government regulates dog and cat food specifically in order to make it nutritious enough for poor people to eat. In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authority over the safety and labeling of animal feed, including pet food. The main purpose of these regulations is to ensure that pet food is safe for pets to consume and that it is accurately labeled, rather than to make it suitable for human consumption.

That being said, it is important for all pet food to be nutritionally complete and balanced in order to meet the needs of the animals being fed. Pet food that is not properly formulated can lead to health problems in animals, regardless of the income level of their owners.

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Congratulations to "The History Guy" for hitting the supplemental retirement income lottery on youtube.

You, too, can be a winner in the lottery economy. Never give up faith in the capitalist system and your video going viral in the nick of time. Just don't forget your bow tie.

Lance Geiger took an unusual path to YouTube stardom.

In 2015, the O’Fallon, Illinois, resident was laid off from his job as a corporate trainer for a health insurance company. He had exhausted the money from his severance package, and so a couple of years later he turned to a lifelong interest — telling stories.

In 2017, Geiger launched “The History Guy” on YouTube. Recently, the channel surpassed 1 million subscribers, and his videos have amassed more than 161 million total views.

“People all the time through my whole life would say, ‘You should make a living doing [YouTube],’” Geiger explained on St. Louis on the Air. “I just had no idea how to. It was really when I was kind of forced to that I figured it out.”

Lance Geiger became "The History Guy" in 2017. He's uploaded more than 700 videos, and they have received more than 2.7 million total views.
It wasn’t easy. Geiger was about one month away from quitting before one of his videos went viral. It was about the 1956 emergency ocean-landing of Pan American Flight 6.

After that video went viral, YouTube sent a check for a couple of hundred dollars in spring 2018. Said Geiger, “By August it was paying my mortgage.” His most popular video ("Robertson, Phillips, and the History of the Screwdriver") has amassed more than 2.7 million views.

But, what exactly made the channel take off?

The bow-tied, bespectacled narrator of the straightforward, fact-filled accounts isn’t 100% sure. His look is most certainly part of it, as is the quality and volume of content.

“The way that YouTube works, the more you're seen, the more they put you in front of people so that you'll be seen more,” he said. “So when you're small, it's very, very difficult to grow.”

Geiger also said he’s been lucky. But he doesn’t take that luck for granted. “It's a lot of work. I mean, you got to treat it like a job,” he said.

The money he’s received from YouTube has allowed Geiger to employ two others. He has a business agent, and his 30-year-old son works for him. Josh Geiger writes about half of the YouTube scripts and hosts “The History Guy” podcast.

https://news.stlpublicradio.org/show/st ... istory-guy