Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote: > John, do you believe the North is an extension o China's foreign
> policy or operating independently?

Not a lot is known about China's relationship with North Korea, but
some things are. There are undoubtedly people in Beijing who welcome
NK's nuclear missile development, because the missiles are pointed at
the US. But it's also known Kim Jong-un has repeatedly snubbed the
CCP leadership, that many in the CCP are furious at what NK is doing
because the collapse of the regime would flood northeastern China with
NK refugees and a nuclear accident would flood northeastern China with
radiation. These days, China has a better relationship with South
Korea than with North Korea.

John wrote:

Guest wrote: > John, do you believe the North is an extension o China's foreign
> policy or operating independently?

Not a lot is known about China's relationship with North Korea, but
some things are. There are undoubtedly people in Beijing who welcome
NK's nuclear missile development, because the missiles are pointed at
the US. But it's also known Kim Jong-un has repeatedly snubbed the
CCP leadership, that many in the CCP are furious at what NK is doing
because the collapse of the regime would flood northeastern China with
NK refugees and a nuclear accident would flood northeastern China with
radiation. These days, China has a better relationship with South
Korea than with North Korea.

NK's physical existence is all but wholly dependent on china. Any independent operating is, in the chineese way, only acceptable if it doesn't threaten their power. Would Kim really talk a big game and risk starting a war on their back door without backing?

china has known since the nomination of Trump that their game is likely up. Everything since then has just been preparation.

CrouchingTiger wrote:

John wrote:

Guest wrote: > John, do you believe the North is an extension o China's foreign
> policy or operating independently?

Not a lot is known about China's relationship with North Korea, but
some things are. There are undoubtedly people in Beijing who welcome
NK's nuclear missile development, because the missiles are pointed at
the US. But it's also known Kim Jong-un has repeatedly snubbed the
CCP leadership, that many in the CCP are furious at what NK is doing
because the collapse of the regime would flood northeastern China with
NK refugees and a nuclear accident would flood northeastern China with
radiation. These days, China has a better relationship with South
Korea than with North Korea.

NK's physical existence is all but wholly dependent on china. Any independent operating is, in the chineese way, only acceptable if it doesn't threaten their power. Would Kim really talk a big game and risk starting a war on their back door without backing?

china has known since the nomination of Trump that their game is likely up. Everything since then has just been preparation.

Good call! You win a set of Samsonite luggage!

Japanese analysts believe that post Olympics NK will start trouble again. Why can't the North Koreans just quit while they are ahead?

Guest wrote:Japanese analysts believe that post Olympics NK will start trouble again. Why can't the North Koreans just quit while they are ahead?

Because China is planning to invade Taiwan and needs a diversion.

They may not even wait that long. They're out of the news right now, but we'll likely see another missile test within the next month or so. It does appear that North Korea has calculated that unless they launch a direct invasion, South Korea is unwilling to respond.