Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

tim, your post above reminds me of how Solzhenitsyn described the Soviet system of control:

And the Kolyma was the greatest and most famous island, the
pole of ferocity of that amazing country of Gulag which, though
scattered in an Archipelago geographically, was, in the psycho-
logical sense, fused into a continent — an almost invisible, almost
imperceptible country inhabited by the zek people.

And this Archipelago crisscrossed and patterned that other
country within which it was located, like a gigantic patchwork,
cutting into its cities, hovering over its streets. Yet there were
many who did not even guess at its presence and many, many
others who had heard something vague. And only those who had
been there knew the whole truth.

[Higgenbotham]

December 6, 2025

All of these cycle studies have produced noteworthy results across multiple time periods, otherwise they would have been lost to the dust bin. But, none of these cycle studies is perfect on its own. What is of interest, is that many if not all of these cycle studies are pointing to a point in time between now and early 2026 whereby the current cycle (a bull market cycle) is slated to end, and a new cycle (a bear market cycle) is slated to begin.

Howe’s work concludes that we are past the midpoint of a fourth turning and poised to enter the crisis period. The Kondratiev wave appears to be peaking and getting ready to rollover into its Winter season. Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model is scheduled to peak at its downcycle midpoint in June 2026 and begin a yearlong plunge into mid-2027. The Benner cycle is also poised to top in 2026 before beginning a six year decline into 2032. According to Prechter, the DJIA may have already topped at supercycle degree of trend. If so, the correction that follows will also occur at supercycle degree of trend — a corrective force last witness during the great depression era. Gann’s Financial Time Table calls for a major panic and crash by 2026 followed by an extreme low in 2028. The Full Cold Supermoon on December 4th coincided with the end of a 18.6-year lunar declination cycle. Since the S&P more than quadrupled over the past 18.6-years, we think its fair to say that this cycle most likely marks the end of a long advance. The Bradly Model points down into year-end, while the 40-week cycle appears to have topped slightly ahead of schedule.

Indeed, the weight of the evidence from these cycle studies collectively suggest that there’s a storm coming, the magnitude of which has the potential to reach epic proportions.

https://hugeinsights.substack.com/p/hug ... -issue-b44

These cycles sort of worked prior to 2005-10 or so when Central Bankers and others drew reasonable lines. Since then, the overriding goal seems to be to maximize manipulation and fraud, kick the can down the road, do "whatever it takes" (Draghi), however you prefer to think about it. There have been many instances where, instead of expected crashes, there were just dips before the market resumed its upward trajectory. When the Central Bankers finally lose control during a time of vulnerability, the crash should be massive, bigger than 1929, 1857, etc. The volatility should be massive too.