Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

https://us.etrade.com/l/broadridge-conversion/faqs
As a result, you will not be able to access the Bond Resource Center or place new orders.
Access to the Bond Resource Center and your accounts will resume on Sunday, 03/12/2023.
7% Stocks metals production 33% Bonds 15% Other is foriegn oil 45% Cash
The nickel theory works for primary account accumulation.
We ran the numbers on the failure maps. Pareto distribution already covers it.
As in baseball singles will work for run production. Maybe a double once and a while.
Bail by taxpeyers for these grifters they should be drawn and quartered.
The taxpayers have had enough of these blatant fools. Let the tanks in the streets.

[Guest]

I also think at some point in the not too distant future things will become so bad that none of these stocks can mount any kind of decent counter trend rally at all. When I start to see that, my assumption will be that a complete collapse of the economy is not too far off. If FRC goes under in the next month, that would also be an indicator to me that the collapse is getting closer. It would be like a canary in the coal mine. The big banks might still be standing at that point but maybe not for long. They say the banking system is strong right now and not to worry. Having repeated that, the only thing that comes to my mind is find someone who predicted the collapse of SVB was imminent and see what that person says. If no such person can be found, then in my opinion nobody really knows whether the banking system is strong right now or not.

What do you think will happen to the US and European governments in this situation? Will they still function? Will the cities become fortresses or be abandoned to gangs of foreign criminals? That seems to be the case in most of Europe now.

[Higgenbotham]

Anyway, this is the piece of the article I found most interesting because it quantifies how corrupt things really WERE 14 years ago. It's miles worse now.

Acemoglu et al. systematically examined companies that had corporate ties to Geithner, had executives who served with him on other boards, or had other direct relationships. They found that "the quantitative effect is comparable to standard findings" in Third World countries with weak institutions and higher levels of corruption. In other words, markets react to government actions in the U.S. the same way they do in a corrupt developing country. Crony capitalism pays, and the market knows it.

https://reason.com/2012/02/09/warren-bu ... ootlegger/

The corrupt official in Geithner's position at present is Janet Yellen. I can imagine a lot of funds are busy this weekend looking for cronies with ties to Janet Yellen. I won't be doing that but will be ready to respond when the news comes out Sunday night or Monday.

[Higgenbotham]

I also think at some point in the not too distant future things will become so bad that none of these stocks can mount any kind of decent counter trend rally at all. When I start to see that, my assumption will be that a complete collapse of the economy is not too far off. If FRC goes under in the next month, that would also be an indicator to me that the collapse is getting closer. It would be like a canary in the coal mine. The big banks might still be standing at that point but maybe not for long. They say the banking system is strong right now and not to worry. Having repeated that, the only thing that comes to my mind is find someone who predicted the collapse of SVB was imminent and see what that person says. If no such person can be found, then in my opinion nobody really knows whether the banking system is strong right now or not.

What do you think will happen to the US and European governments in this situation? Will they still function? Will the cities become fortresses or be abandoned to gangs of foreign criminals? That seems to be the case in most of Europe now.

That's something I've been meaning to get around to discussing. When I posted the excerpts from Widdowson's book, it was apparent to me that a lot of his predictions depend on the nation state staying strong. I've seen the same thing here on this board. I think that people are overestimating the ability of the nation state to function as it has in the past once the economy collapses. I made a set of predictions 5 years ago that took that into account and plan to give reasons for that when discussing Widdowson's predictions. One of my recent posts on Bob Butler's thread shows that the debt to GDP ratio in the US is higher than it was at the end of World War II. That's one reason. Most nation-states are financially tapped out and in no position to deal with any upcoming crisis. For now, I'll just underline the parts of my predictions from 5 years ago that have to do with that question.

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
• The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
• There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
• Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
• The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
• Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

[Higgenbotham]

Meantime, the jockeying for bailout money goes on unabated, as it will all weekend as the vultures pick at the bones of a dying and bankrupt empire.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... 33d81&ei=5

As in the hall, in which there has been a sumptuous banquet, we perceive the fragments of a feast now become prey to beggars and banditti; if in some instances, the spectacle is less wretched and disgusting; it is, because the banquet is not entirely over, and the guests have not all yet risen from the table.

William Playfair
An inquiry into the permanent causes of the decline and fall of powerful and wealthy nations
1805

http://books.google.com/books?id=MLvIAA ... &q&f=false

[aeden]

Same script for 250 years. The current math conveys they want 13 of 14 dead and enslave the rest to save the future debt slaves to cater to them.
They will bleat like Sheep as before.

[Guest]

I also think at some point in the not too distant future things will become so bad that none of these stocks can mount any kind of decent counter trend rally at all. When I start to see that, my assumption will be that a complete collapse of the economy is not too far off. If FRC goes under in the next month, that would also be an indicator to me that the collapse is getting closer. It would be like a canary in the coal mine. The big banks might still be standing at that point but maybe not for long. They say the banking system is strong right now and not to worry. Having repeated that, the only thing that comes to my mind is find someone who predicted the collapse of SVB was imminent and see what that person says. If no such person can be found, then in my opinion nobody really knows whether the banking system is strong right now or not.

What do you think will happen to the US and European governments in this situation? Will they still function? Will the cities become fortresses or be abandoned to gangs of foreign criminals? That seems to be the case in most of Europe now.

That's something I've been meaning to get around to discussing. When I posted the excerpts from Widdowson's book, it was apparent to me that a lot of his predictions depend on the nation state staying strong. I've seen the same thing here on this board. I think that people are overestimating the ability of the nation state to function as it has in the past once the economy collapses. I made a set of predictions 5 years ago that took that into account and plan to give reasons for that when discussing Widdowson's predictions. One of my recent posts on Bob Butler's thread shows that the debt to GDP ratio in the US is higher than it was at the end of World War II. That's one reason. Most nation-states are financially tapped out and in no position to deal with any upcoming crisis. For now, I'll just underline the parts of my predictions from 5 years ago that have to do with that question.

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
• The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
• There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
• Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
• The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
• Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

Thank you for the grim, but necessary reading.

[aeden]

March 6, 2023 On CNN This Morning, Burns compared the efforts by DeSantis to actual Nazis building Potemkin villages.

Yea, have that over Coffee for narratives of the week.
Documentarian Ken Burns on Tuesday said the bills that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is advocating for resemble the "Soviet system" in deciding what students are allowed to be taught in a classroom.

We have tolerated fools long enough. Parents should all be given tasers for drag queens on educational property infecting children.
All in favor are the truly sane ones.

Brandon Weichert • Yesterday 11:20 AM
Biden apparently believes that the American people have thoroughly shifted to the Left
Joe Biden Is Setting a Trap for the GOP
The Biden Administration is making the calculation that most Americans prefer a government that does more for them—spends more of their money ostensibly on them.
Narratives of the corrupted.

Biden is checked out in body and soul. Given over to utter darkness.
Trust of this damned guy is rock bottom and fools contempt since evil is good for these maniacs.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... athan+Cahn

[Higgenbotham]

America's millionaires aren't leaving the US to avoid taxes — they're trying to find the American Dream somewhere else, report says

American millionaires are moving overseas, and it's not to dodge taxes, a consultancy firm says.
They're trying to future-proof their wealth, fearing crime and instability in the US, per the analysis.
Net inflows of wealthy people into the US fell to 1,500 in 2022, down from a peak 10,800 pre-pandemic.

America is losing its millionaires.

The net inflow of high-net-worth individuals to the US plummeted 86% in 2022 from peak pre-pandemic levels, falling to just 1,500 people, according to a new wealth report by London-based consultancy Henley & Partners.

That's compared to a net inflow that fluctuated between 6,400 and 10,800 wealthy people a year from 2013 to 2019.

A key impetus for this change has been disillusioned American millionaires looking overseas for opportunities, wrote Mehdi Kadiri, the head of North America at Henley & Partners, in the report published on Wednesday.

"Americans are currently experiencing their own bleak 'winter of discontent,'" he wrote for the firm, which tracks investment migration trends.

Many have been driven away by mounting calls to tax the rich, political tensions in the US, unpredictable markets because of the war in Ukraine, rising crime rates and gun violence, and conflict over societal issues like gender equality and racism, Kadiri added.

America's rich who want more options are now migrating to countries like Portugal, Malta, Spain, Greece, and Italy, which offer golden visas and migration programs, he wrote.

But millionaires opting for a second passport isn't a matter of avoiding taxes, Jeff D. Opdyke, an investment expert who covered finance for 17 years at the Wall Street Journal, wrote in the report.

They're simply chasing the American Dream elsewhere, he wrote.

More investors, C-suite execs, and entrepreneurs are migrating to future-proof their wealth, "seeking greener pastures for investment and business growth, safer destinations to raise their families," Opdyke added.

"For more than half a century, Americans defined, lived, and exemplified the American Dream that so much of the emerging world looked to and thought: 'One day, that'll be me!'" wrote Opdyke. "But today, for many, the American Dream is on life support."

Henley & Partners said one of the measures it uses to gauge the health of a country's economy is its middle class — which has been shrinking in the US.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 6dc916959b

Least honest: Lisbon, Portugal

Wallets returned: 1 out of 12. A couple in their sixties spotted our wallet and immediately called us. Interestingly, our reporter learned that the two weren’t from Lisbon at all—they were visiting from Holland. The remaining eleven wallets were taken, money and all. Here are 8 things you should never, ever keep in your wallet.

Second least honest: Madrid, Spain

Wallets returned: 2 out of 12. Beatriz Lopez, a 22-year-old student, found our wallet in an upscale downtown area with her friend Lena Jansen, also 22. “We only wanted to give it back,” she said. Jansen told reporters, “I couldn’t keep a purse that wasn’t mine.”

https://www.rd.com/list/most-honest-cit ... llet-test/

Americans are idiots. Even American millionaires who are leaving the country.

[Higgenbotham]

FINANCE
US government steps in and says people with money deposited at SVB will be able to access their money

PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 12 2023
6:16 PM EDT
UPDATED 2 MIN AGO

Banking regulators devised a plan Sunday to backstop depositors with money at Silicon Valley Bank, a critical step in stemming a feared panic over the collapsed tech-focused institution.

Regulators said depositors at both failed SVB and Signature Bank in New York, which also has been closed, will have full access to their deposits.

The Treasury Department said it approved of plans that would unwind both institutions “in a manner that fully protects all depositors.” Those with money at the bank will have full access starting Monday.

The Federal Reserve also said it is creating a new Bank Term Funding Program aimed at safeguarding institutions impacted by the market instability of the SVB failure.

A joint statement also said there would be no bailouts and no taxpayer costs associated with any of the new plans. Shareholders and some unsecured creditors won’t be protected.

“Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” said a joint statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg.

The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

“This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy,” the Fed said in a statement. “The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.”

The Treasury Department is providing up to $25 billion from its Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the funding program.

Along with the facility, the Fed said it will ease conditions at its discount window, which will use the same conditions as the BTFP.

Markets reacted positively to the developments, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average leaping more than 250 points in early trading. Cryptocurrency prices also rallied strongly, with bitcoin up more than 7%.

The news came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday morning that there would be no SVB bailout.

“We’re not going to do that again. But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs,” Yellen said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulat ... lapse.html

They won't tell the details but this sounds to me like a bailout. I suspect what they are going to do is mark the collateral to the purchase price rather than to market, then plan to reduce interest rates if there is too much pressure on the banking system going forward. That's why the loan period will be for a year. But from where I sit it's very, very difficult to tell what the details are. From a practical standpoint, there may be a market rally for a couple days, and I will look to re-establish short positions slowly as the market rises. One interesting technical aspect is that one or two of the gaps up near 4100 may not have been filled and that may happen on this coming rally.

Closed all shorts today and will go nappy time as 32.4% in 90 day tbills as the sweeps continue.

I also have no positions as of today's close.

Right, because I knew they would get themselves in a position to waddle, eventually, but, once in their waddling position, it's too hard to know what happens. It's a lottery economy, after all.