Nice post. I'm really close to shorting, might do it today. I don't see a Santa rally. Even if we do, it'll be small. No way it's going much higher than 4100, which I don't think it'll get. Forget 4200. January will be bad, and so will the rest of 2023 until they pivot, which is when it'll be its worst.richard5za wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:33 amTotally agree with the trend analysis. It is possible to get "false breaks" which cause even more losses because some people believe so completely that they are willing to bet "the farm" to make a fortune
So there may or may not be a santa rally. For me it would need to brak up to about 4350 before I would think that the bear was over
I am anticipating some euphoria around the CPI on the 13th and then there's an option expiry on 15th, so things could be a bit hectic. But it may be quite different to this!!!
Enjoy it. I'm selling most and shorting the Russell. Put that in my list of plays/predictions but don't forget that timing is hard, but of course it's the point of the game at this juncture.
Notice that in August it hit 4307 (8/15) then scaled lower to 3910 on 9/5 after more head faking, finally climbing to 4110 on 9/11 (the next monday). Then we went all the way to sub 3600. Lower highs and lower lows. We could get that Santa move you all are talking about, but it will be very short lived if they even bother. My $.02