Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Navigator
Posts: 906
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:01 am
Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:30 am
The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.
France was not America. Germany was not America. Japan was not America. All of them still aren't, but they have picked up much of the Enlightenment values. History changes cultures. War is no longer cost effective. Hasn't been for some time. Just ask Napoleon or Hitler.

I suspect one element of the US culture might become relevant, one that Grant was famous for and that FDR and Churchill pushed. Unconditional Surrender Grant. The west when it gains an advantage pushes it. While Putin may have started the Ukraine conflict, I am doubtful that he can end it at whim save by retreating behind the old borders, especially if he tries to survive by continuing the conflict. The draft dodgers are looking for borders to cross. Those who failed to draft dodge are surrendering as soon as they contact the enemy. Putin's control of Russia is weakening.

By the way, what have Napoleon and St Bernadette of Lourdes have in common? Decades after their death, their bodies were exhumed and it was discovered that two miracles had happened. Neither body had aged, had rotted, as is usual and expected. Great wonder and amazement, save that some knew that if you died of arsenic poisoning, your body tends to kill microbes that try to invade it... St Bernadette had a major tumor, and was dying a slow painful death. Arsenic poisoning might be considered mercy, though you would not speak of it. I suspect the motivation behind Napoleon's death was less benign.
I can only speak to the first paragraph here. I have no idea what points you are trying to make with the second and third paragraphs.

Culture change came to Germany and Japan only in the aftermath of WW2. In that conflict it became readily apparent to every single German and every single Japanese that the US/USSR was going to kill every single one of them, if that is what it took to defeat them. The point is that they changed their cultures only when it was the only option for self preservation. Then they had the US hold their hand for roughly a decade to oversee the complete change of their cultures.

Culture change in France came much more slowly, but was in large measure affected by the similar extreme losses suffered by France in the Napoleonic Wars. Namely that almost every able bodied military age male was a casualty and that the nation was impoverished for years as a result.

These things have not yet happened for Russia. Russia now seems to be playing the role of Austria-Hungary. The majority of its population were not enthusiastic about that war either. But it took the losses of that major war to actually end that power.
Last edited by Navigator on Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Navigator
Posts: 906
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:09 pm
Navigator wrote:
Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:34 pm
Guest wrote:
Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:09 pm

Who said anything about a democratic uprising? I'm talking about someone shooting Putin in the head an ending the war and sanctions. Nothing more than that.
If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".

If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.

Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.
Since Putin has spent the past two decades preventing any possible successor from arising, anyone taking over would need to spend years consolidating power. The war in Ukraine is not as popular as you might think, especially since the mobilization which is now affecting ordinary people. It's easy to be in favor of a war when it has no effect on you, less so when it is you, or your son/husband out there dying. Crimea might be a sticking point, but I could see a successor telling the DPR and LPR that they're out of luck and withdrawing all Russian troops from everything except Crimea. And maybe even that one if things are bad enough. Doing so would probably leas to relaxation or suspension of the sanctions against Russia which would make consolidation easier.
This line of thinking would be reasonable for the west. The leader (Putin) has failed in his efforts to take Ukraine, and the public pressure is there (by families of service members, and by the wealthy who cannot use their wealth) for a new leader to abandon the whole endeavor.

But that doesn't happen very often. Heck, under this reasoning, Johnson should have pulled the US out of Vietnam in 1966.

It would be great if Russia threw off its current establishment and went with Alexei Navalny as their leader. I just do not see how this will happen.

I think that people vastly overestimate the power/influence of the oligarchs as well as popular Russian opinion. Russia is used to a "strongman" taking the reigns and then making the "tough choices". Russians are still enamored of Stalin and many are looking for such a figure.

The Army is more upset at the "half measures" Putin and his crony Shogoi have taken than they are about fighting Ukrainians. The Army wants "full measures" (like a tac nuke in Ivano-Frankivsk or an even larger target) taken.

Instead, I see either Putin taking Stalinist measures, or being replaced by someone who is willing to do so.

Stalinist measures, just to be clear, mean the basic enslavement of the entire population to achieve their war/nationalistic aims. This includes doing things like imprisonment of the family of deserters or those that surrender. Imprisoning and/or executing those that object to what is going on.

Ultimately, in the course of WW3, as the populations of Russia and China endure mass starvation and depravation, they will eventually turn on their enslavers, but this is far down the road.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

I'll only touch on a few points:
Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:56 pm


I do still believe that the Russians will eventually get into Europe, and that there will be a massive refugee problem. Also that the Russians would occupy the Baltics, and that NATO, when it is pressed, will have a major ammunition shortage crisis.

<snip>

The Russians getting into Europe is based on WW3 starting. That hasn't exactly happened yet. At this point, the Russians cannot even get anywhere in Ukraine. That is because that even now, they have not yet taken the draconian measures I believe that they needed to.

They need to go through a national mobilization, not just of their manpower, but of all sectors. They have not done so, yet. And their current mobilization is being run by incompetents.
I'm not sure what you think such a mobilization would accomplish. Russia does not have the capacity to produce large quantities of anything other than obsolescent weapons. Period. It is dependent on imports for most anything designed in the past 40 years. They have NO capacity to ramp up from what they have now. Yes, they could make a bunch of AK-47s, but it questionable if they could even produce enough ammunition. Russia is trying to source artillery ammunition from other countries because it cannot produce enough domestically and some kind of general mobilization is unlikely to change that to any degree. It is turning to Iran for drones and possibly for rockets because it cannot produce enough. Again, there is NO way this can change in the short to medium term.
So maybe the Russians getting into Europe doesn't happen until WW3 starts and the Chinese prop up their increasingly weak ally.

European refugees heading to Spain could, at this point, happen even if WW3 doesn't start right away, as neither Germans nor Poles are going to be able to heat their homes this winter.
China is unlikely to do anymore for Russia than it already is. China is dependent on foreign trade; without that trade companies shut down, people are out of work and the riots begin. As John has said, China is prone to rebellions and Xi knows that. Why would he prop up a losing power in Russia?

As for heating this winter, unless it is especially cold there seem to be enough supplies to make it through. Next year is the question since the US is exporting about as much as it can without new LNG ports coming on line.
I do still believe that Europe/NATO is going to be militarily pressed during the upcoming war, and when it comes to that, their defenses will be found to be rather hollow. Part of this will be an ammunition shortage.
Yes, in an extended war NATO faces risks of running low on ammunition. Russia is in that situation right now with NO prospects for any real improvement.

Some people have made an issue of the US and other NATO states drawing down ammunition, but don't recognize that it is mostly the oldest and least effective stocks being sent to Ukraine and that they're doing exactly what they were designed to do; killing Russians and destroying their equipment. Russia will run out of stuff to destroy long before the West runs out of stuff to destroy it with.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:29 pm

This line of thinking would be reasonable for the west. The leader (Putin) has failed in his efforts to take Ukraine, and the public pressure is there (by families of service members, and by the wealthy who cannot use their wealth) for a new leader to abandon the whole endeavor.

It would be great if Russia threw off its current establishment and went with Alexei Navalny as their leader. I just do not see how this will happen.
Navalny taking over is maybe a one in a million chance. It's unlikely an oligarch would take over either. Most likely is another of the siloviki from the various intelligence services.
The Army is more upset at the "half measures" Putin and his crony Shogoi have taken than they are about fighting Ukrainians. The Army wants "full measures" (like a tac nuke in Ivano-Frankivsk or an even larger target) taken.
Maybe some of the mil bloggers, but officers with any seniority know that Russia can't win a nuclear war and any use of even tac nukes is likely to bring NATO forces into play on Ukraine's side. Russia is losing to Ukraine with only a fraction of NATO's capabilities.In any case, in Russia as in other countries, nuclear weapons have always been a political decision, not a military one.
Instead, I see either Putin taking Stalinist measures, or being replaced by someone who is willing to do so.

Stalinist measures, just to be clear, mean the basic enslavement of the entire population to achieve their war/nationalistic aims. This includes doing things like imprisonment of the family of deserters or those that surrender. Imprisoning and/or executing those that object to what is going on.

Ultimately, in the course of WW3, as the populations of Russia and China endure mass starvation and depravation, they will eventually turn on their enslavers, but this is far down the road.
Again, this is not 1941 and Russia does not have the capability of producing in volume anything other than 60 year old weapons. In fact, it is exceedingly unlikely it could come anywhere near WW II production rates. The capacity isn't there and such antiquated equipment would be destroyed easily.

In February I though Ukraine would fall fairly quickly. I thought Russia had a much better military and competent people running it. I was wrong and things aren't getting better for Russia.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:08 pm
Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:01 am
Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:30 am
The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.
France was not America. Germany was not America. Japan was not America. All of them still aren't, but they have picked up much of the Enlightenment values. History changes cultures. War is no longer cost effective. Hasn't been for some time. Just ask Napoleon or Hitler.

I suspect one element of the US culture might become relevant, one that Grant was famous for and that FDR and Churchill pushed. Unconditional Surrender Grant. The west when it gains an advantage pushes it. While Putin may have started the Ukraine conflict, I am doubtful that he can end it at whim save by retreating behind the old borders, especially if he tries to survive by continuing the conflict. The draft dodgers are looking for borders to cross. Those who failed to draft dodge are surrendering as soon as they contact the enemy. Putin's control of Russia is weakening.

By the way, what have Napoleon and St Bernadette of Lourdes have in common? Decades after their death, their bodies were exhumed and it was discovered that two miracles had happened. Neither body had aged, had rotted, as is usual and expected. Great wonder and amazement, save that some knew that if you died of arsenic poisoning, your body tends to kill microbes that try to invade it... St Bernadette had a major tumor, and was dying a slow painful death. Arsenic poisoning might be considered mercy, though you would not speak of it. I suspect the motivation behind Napoleon's death was less benign.
I can only speak to the first paragraph here. I have no idea what points you are trying to make with the second and third paragraphs.

Culture change came to Germany and Japan only in the aftermath of WW2. In that conflict it became readily apparent to every single German and every single Japanese that the US/USSR was going to kill every single one of them, if that is what it took to defeat them. The point is that they changed their cultures only when it was the only option for self preservation. Then they had the US hold their hand for roughly a decade to oversee the complete change of their cultures.

Culture change in France came much more slowly, but was in large measure affected by the similar extreme losses suffered by France in the Napoleonic Wars. Namely that almost every able bodied military age male was a casualty and that the nation was impoverished for years as a result.

These things have not yet happened for Russia. Russia now seems to be playing the role of Austria-Hungary. The majority of its population were not enthusiastic about that war either. But it took the losses of that major war to actually end that power.
There is a major hole in your argument. The Germans today are no longer warriors, neither are the Japanese samurai. Times have truly changed. Russians , for the most part, do support the war, but not enough to fight in it. The Russians are no longer the terrified drones of the 1930s. Look at their response to all of this. And Russia has broken up. The ethnic minorities are angry about having born the brunt of the dead and wounded in Ukraine. The Buryats are .7% of the population by already 5-6% of the dead and wounded. (Probably more now.) This war has fallen onto the shoulders of Dagestani Muslims and Central Asians, and they resent it. This will lead to a further breakup of Russia. Two ethnic Tajiks shot up a practice range a couple of days ago and killed and wounded dozens of other Russian soldiers. There is a major problems in the Russian ranks.

You are wrong about the Russians. They are not going to give up Dior, KFC, and Toyotas for Putin or any other strong man. i see further disintegration, not consolidation.

And stop insulting the former Soviet peoples who come on to this board.

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Bob Butler
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Unconditional Surrender

Post by Bob Butler »

Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:08 pm
Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:01 am
Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:30 am
The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.
France was not America. Germany was not America. Japan was not America. All of them still aren't, but they have picked up much of the Enlightenment values. History changes cultures. War is no longer cost effective. Hasn't been for some time. Just ask Napoleon or Hitler.

I suspect one element of the US culture might become relevant, one that Grant was famous for and that FDR and Churchill pushed. Unconditional Surrender Grant. The west when it gains an advantage pushes it. While Putin may have started the Ukraine conflict, I am doubtful that he can end it at whim save by retreating behind the old borders, especially if he tries to survive by continuing the conflict. The draft dodgers are looking for borders to cross. Those who failed to draft dodge are surrendering as soon as they contact the enemy. Putin's control of Russia is weakening.
I can only speak to the first paragraph here. I have no idea what points you are trying to make with the second and third paragraphs.

Culture change came to Germany and Japan only in the aftermath of WW2. In that conflict it became readily apparent to every single German and every single Japanese that the US/USSR was going to kill every single one of them, if that is what it took to defeat them. The point is that they changed their cultures only when it was the only option for self preservation. Then they had the US hold their hand for roughly a decade to oversee the complete change of their cultures.

Culture change in France came much more slowly, but was in large measure affected by the similar extreme losses suffered by France in the Napoleonic Wars. Namely that almost every able bodied military age male was a casualty and that the nation was impoverished for years as a result.

These things have not yet happened for Russia. Russia now seems to be playing the role of Austria-Hungary. The majority of its population were not enthusiastic about that war either. But it took the losses of that major war to actually end that power.
The point of bringing up unconditional surrender is that part of the western culture is that they completely defeat their enemies. Russia calling up a reserve that cannot be fully trained or equipped indicates that point has nearly been reached. Thus, I do not expect Ukraine to stop attacking until their land has been restored. Yes, Putin's war is less drastic than WW II. Ukraine is apt to stop near the border. They have suffered as a country too much to take up the task of totally wiping out Russia. Yet, while Ukraine is able to defend their culture, they were hit by modern weapons that could damage the infrastructure and kill civilians. Arguably, Ukraine is as badly crippled as France before the 100 days.

France had a less drastic change than many of the conflicts being discussed. Napoleon would initiate wars, kill all males of military age, impoverish the nation, but he also spread the Code of Napoleon. That went a long way to spreading western enlightenment values. You tell people they have certain rights and expectations and they tend to believe it.

I would not be surprised to see the US and NATO holding Russia's hand as part of 'never again'. Russia will need the sanctions to be relieved and help resetting their economy. The loss in manpower in escaping the draft, war, and surrender is quite significant. Disarming will be the price of the help. Heck, they will have to be willing to disarm believably if they want their population back. That is a giant leap in guessing the later phases of the NATO policy, but I don't think NATO is thrilled to spend enough to continue containment. They will not want Russia to rearm, and will be in a position to enforce it.

guest

Re: Unconditional Surrender

Post by guest »

Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:01 pm
Navigator wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:08 pm
Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:01 am


France was not America. Germany was not America. Japan was not America. All of them still aren't, but they have picked up much of the Enlightenment values. History changes cultures. War is no longer cost effective. Hasn't been for some time. Just ask Napoleon or Hitler.

I suspect one element of the US culture might become relevant, one that Grant was famous for and that FDR and Churchill pushed. Unconditional Surrender Grant. The west when it gains an advantage pushes it. While Putin may have started the Ukraine conflict, I am doubtful that he can end it at whim save by retreating behind the old borders, especially if he tries to survive by continuing the conflict. The draft dodgers are looking for borders to cross. Those who failed to draft dodge are surrendering as soon as they contact the enemy. Putin's control of Russia is weakening.
I can only speak to the first paragraph here. I have no idea what points you are trying to make with the second and third paragraphs.

Culture change came to Germany and Japan only in the aftermath of WW2. In that conflict it became readily apparent to every single German and every single Japanese that the US/USSR was going to kill every single one of them, if that is what it took to defeat them. The point is that they changed their cultures only when it was the only option for self preservation. Then they had the US hold their hand for roughly a decade to oversee the complete change of their cultures.

Culture change in France came much more slowly, but was in large measure affected by the similar extreme losses suffered by France in the Napoleonic Wars. Namely that almost every able bodied military age male was a casualty and that the nation was impoverished for years as a result.

These things have not yet happened for Russia. Russia now seems to be playing the role of Austria-Hungary. The majority of its population were not enthusiastic about that war either. But it took the losses of that major war to actually end that power.
The point of bringing up unconditional surrender is that part of the western culture is that they completely defeat their enemies. Russia calling up a reserve that cannot be fully trained or equipped indicates that point has nearly been reached. Thus, I do not expect Ukraine to stop attacking until their land has been restored. Yes, Putin's war is less drastic than WW II. Ukraine is apt to stop near the border. They have suffered as a country too much to take up the task of totally wiping out Russia. Yet, while Ukraine is able to defend their culture, they were hit by modern weapons that could damage the infrastructure and kill civilians. Arguably, Ukraine is as badly crippled as France before the 100 days.

France had a less drastic change than many of the conflicts being discussed. Napoleon would initiate wars, kill all males of military age, impoverish the nation, but he also spread the Code of Napoleon. That went a long way to spreading western enlightenment values. You tell people they have certain rights and expectations and they tend to believe it.

I would not be surprised to see the US and NATO holding Russia's hand as part of 'never again'. Russia will need the sanctions to be relieved and help resetting their economy. The loss in manpower in escaping the draft, war, and surrender is quite significant. Disarming will be the price of the help. Heck, they will have to be willing to disarm believably if they want their population back. That is a giant leap in guessing the later phases of the NATO policy, but I don't think NATO is thrilled to spend enough to continue containment. They will not want Russia to rearm, and will be in a position to enforce it.
Last month Peter Zeihan placed the number of Ukrainian dead at half a million. That was last month.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

http://themostimportantnews.com/archive ... to-imagine
The Food Crisis Of 2023 Is Going To Be Far Worse Than Most People Would Dare To Imagine
October 16, 2022
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Many Russian allies have closed their embassies in Kiev. Expect further Russian escalation imminently.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

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“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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