Generational Dynamics World View News

[NoMansLand]

An interesting perspective on the current operations in Ukraine and possible plans to take advantage of the coming winter.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... me-changer

Given Putin's early brag about low casualties, I found this bit very interesting:
There were no Russian Armed Forces in those settlements: only Rosgvardia, and these are not trained to fight military forces. Kiev attacked with an advantage of around 5 to 1. The allied forces retreated to avoid encirclement. There are no Russian troop losses because there were no Russian troops in the region.

Jeez. That reads like it was written directly in the Kremlin

The author is an odd man from what I have seen of his work. It could be propaganda, deluded ramblings, or possibly both. I have no idea. I will say that nuggets of info wrapped in grandstanding crap or insane ramblings have been my best sources for useful info for a few years now, so it caught my attention.

[DaKardii]

The death toll of the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan border clashes is now over 200. A ceasefire has been reached but it is unclear if it will hold.

Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi has announced she will be visiting Armenia to demonstrate her support, while Iran has threatened military intervention in the event of further escalations.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-717351
https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbai ... 36376.html
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202209137964

[Lightbulb]

Five Lebanese banks were held up by depositors seeking access to their own money frozen in the banking system on Friday, in a spiralling spate of holdups this week spurred by frustration over a financial implosion with no end in sight.

Seven banks have been held up since Wednesday in Lebanon, where commercial banks have locked most depositors out of their savings since an economic crisis took hold three years ago, leaving much of the population unable to pay for basics.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 022-09-16/

[Xeraphim1]

And in the meantime, there is a border clash between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Commentary I've seen has associated this, along with the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, to a feeling that Russia is not the power is seemed to be and that it can't stomp on problems the way it used to. I've also read of issues in Kazakhstan in the North where there are a good number of Russian speaking residents. Seems there is thinking that Russia could use their presence as a pretext for border adjustments. I believe that more countries will see Russian speaking residents as a liability. Along with the Russian speaking people fleeing Ukraine now, we may see the same from other countries.

[Tom Mazanec]

Any opinions on what I see as a growing polarization in American politics?

[Tom Mazanec]

“Prologue To Third World War”: Kremlin Reacts To Security Guarantees For Ukraine
Published 2 days ago on 15 September, 2022
Zero Hedge
https://summit.news/2022/09/15/prologue ... r-ukraine/

Asian Superpowers, India & Japan Vow To Boost Bilateral, Defense & Technology Ties Amid Chinese Threats
EXPERT REVIEWS
By
Guest Author
September 15, 2022
OPED By Ambassador Gurjit Singh
https://eurasiantimes.com/india-japan-v ... echnology/

Ukraine Carrying out Assassinations in Moscow
Administrator
Posted onSeptember 15, 2022
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022 ... in-moscow/

16 Sep, 2022 00:54
HomeWorld News
US announces another major arms package for Ukraine
https://www.rt.com/news/562898-pentagon ... -military/

Team Putin Threatens Maniacal Response to Bitter War Losses
Julia Davis
Thu, September 15, 2022 at 4:47 AM·4 min read
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tea ... 13615.html

As Ukraine advances, Putin backs further into a corner
Ishaan Tharoor - Thursday
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as ... r-AA11QDVw

Russian Military Failures Are A Disaster For Putin
By Editorial Dept - Sep 16, 2022, 8:00 AM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Putin.html

Putin faces toughest challenge yet as Russian leader
BY COLIN MEYN - 09/16/22 6:00 AM ET
https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... an-leader/

[FullMoon]

Any opinions on what I see as a growing polarization in American politics?

It should be expected for social pressures held in check during good times to fester and rupture when they can no longer be contained.

[FullMoon]

And in the meantime, there is a border clash between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Commentary I've seen has associated this, along with the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, to a feeling that Russia is not the power is seemed to be and that it can't stomp on problems the way it used to. I've also read of issues in Kazakhstan in the North where there are a good number of Russian speaking residents. Seems there is thinking that Russia could use their presence as a pretext for border adjustments. I believe that more countries will see Russian speaking residents as a liability. Along with the Russian speaking people fleeing Ukraine now, we may see the same from other countries.

Xi's first post pandemic trip abroad for the SCO in Samarkand. Seizing the initiative and making themselves known as the new leadership in the region. A good move of strength before elections. Shoring up land supply lines of food and energy. For the inevitable sea war in short order. Let's hope their ambitions are more based on hubris than strategic preparation

[Navigator]

From your previous post it's going to come down to opinion and I'm not going to try changing your mind.

As for ammunition, there is no real need for government owned plant for small arms ammunition because there is a lot of private manufacturing. The US government already buys a lot because private companies are more efficient.

As for artillery ammunition, there has not been a lot of production because there hasn't been a lot of consumption. And much of what has been produced is precision ammunition. The US has no intention of fighting a WW II type artillery battle because it doesn't have to. Your arguments are similar to decrying the fact that the US doesn't have huge stocks of 500 lb bombs any more and in a WW II style bombing campaign would not be able to supply 500 plane type raids on enemy cities. And that's because there is no intention of ever mounting such raids.

And I'll repeat, the only target for mass artillery fire right now is... Russia. Those shells are doing exactly what they were intended to do - destroying Russian personal and equipment. Just it isn't US troops doing the firing.

Now, I will agree that there are too many bottlenecks and single points of failure in our supply chains. Like everybody else, the military adopted methods to lower cost at the expense of robustness. Blame various presidents and particularly Congress for that.Perhaps there will be sufficient awareness now to actually do something about that.

I certainly understand your opinion. It is the accepted one within the vast majority of military and political circles. And you do a very good job of explaining it and the rationale behind it.

In short, I believe that these views can be summarized as follows:
1. Total War is no longer a possibility as no-one can afford to engage in it.
2. Wars will be short, as no-one really has the ability to engage in a large protracted one.
3. Our modern technology has made old ways of fighting completely obsolete.
4. Drafts and other full mobilization measures are no longer viable.

I, on the other hand, believe the following:
1. Total War happens when Major Powers start shooting directly at one another. Neither is willing to back down due to the internal political ramifications of doing that.
2. As a result of number 1 above, Major Power wars tend to last years, as one side must become completely impotent for the war to end.
3. Modern technology will just add to the lethality of what happens on the battlefield.
4. Nations will use everything at their disposal once they believe their existence (or the existence of those in power) is at risk.

As I have stated before, this thinking that wars will be short, that no-one can afford a major one, and that level heads will ultimately prevail is what people have thought before every major war, and they all end up following the four points I just outlined.

However, as I have also stated before, I do hope that you are right, and that I can enjoy a care-free retirement.

[John]

Saturday September 17th, 2022

I would add the following informal observation to what is written above:

I have developed the informal impression that major wars last about 5 years. that's the amount of time necessary for both sides to be so totally exhausted that one side will be willing to surrender.

yes, there are many exceptions.