Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:54 pm
FullMoon wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:31 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:56 pm


They're official Russian figures so...
I've seen some polls showing popular support at high levels. They've abandoned trying to become accepted by Europe and are rapidly shifting worldview. New alliances being brokered if you've seen. It'll take time to bear fruit.

Perhaps they're going to weather it better than we, as hardship is what they're accustomed to. And we're going to show some serious issues when our comforts disappear quite soon. How about stats on American's health and obesity levels? That'll be a big drain very quickly.
The problem is in trusting what comes out of Russia. Keep in mind that just calling the Ukraine war a war can land you in prison. As to new alliances, who is available? China isn't jumping in to help Russia because, why should it? Besides, it is dependent on exports and isn't going to screw up its economy for Russia. Iran? It's also a near basket case. Who else is there?

Being accustomed to hardship may have been true in Soviet times, but the past 30 years has had people expecting better. Note that that tens of thousands of young professionals have left Russia since February including many of the people most needed for a modern economy. FDI has dried up and that drove most of the industrial improvement of the past few decades.

Now, I could be wrong, but it's looking like Putin's latest adventure has set Russia back by at least 10-15 years and possibly more. Deaths and casualties in Ukraine are estimated to exceed 75,000, though probably 2/3 of that are casualties who will or have recovered. Material losses are massive and will take a decade to make up, if Russia could afford it which it can't. And the total fertility rate is 1.5 with massive negative growth.

I don't see any way in which Russia will not be an also ran with nukes desperately trying to stay relevant.
It's not just Russia. This is just the beginning.
If you think the current paradigm stays intact, then statistics are meaningful. If not, we're entering a new system. I believe John has called it the clash of civilizations.
What you know will be obsolete soon enough. And then you'll be bereft and helpless like the majority, sadly suffering.

User avatar
Bob Butler
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am
Location: East of the moon, west of the sun
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Bob Butler »

FullMoon wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:18 pm
It's not just Russia. This is just the beginning.
If you think the current paradigm stays intact, then statistics are meaningful. If not, we're entering a new system. I believe John has called it the clash of civilizations.
What you know will be obsolete soon enough. And then you'll be bereft and helpless like the majority, sadly suffering.
I for one agree that we’re entering a new system. I try to look at history from several perspectives all at once. S&H turnings suggest that civilizations face upheaval and change every four score and seven years. Various civilizations (Western, Orthodox, Oriental, etc…) with different dominant nations (US, Russia, China, etc…) are at various points of evolution and have different values. Different ages (Hunter Gatherer, Agricultural, Industrial, Information) have different patterns of civilization, with computers, nukes and not cost effective wars being major factors in the Information Age.

Thing is, I see the Chinese and Russian (Orthodox) civilizations as being behind the curve, still pursuing the authoritarian communist style, and Russia at least pursuing war as a way to profit and gain power. They have replaced kings with dictators, but are sticking with autocratic government and conflict, or are trying too. Thus, they are championing the old Industrial Age pattern rather than embracing the Information Age pattern. NATO and the Asian alliance against China are practicing containment, making it harder for Russia and China to continue the idea that expanding through war is profitable and advantageous.

The various perspectives come together with this being a crisis, Russian and China are two civilizations confronting the West, and this is a cusp where we are shifting from the Industrial to Information Ages. With Russia being close to military and economic collapse and China to economic collapse, advancing more firmly into the Information Age pattern seems likely.

This is an admittedly an optimistic view given the crisis not yet resolved, but the older autocratic cultures may be forced to step up, adapting to the existing technology. The keys are whether NATO can outspend Russia militarily and whether China can reject a planned economy that is going south on them. Thus, the impending collapse of the two old civilizations can be looked at as progress towards the Information Age.

John? Generational Dynamics includes a strong element that cultures hate each other and this hate can advance conquest and conflict. I see this as an Agricultural and Industrial Age truism, a behavior pattern that should be recognized and acknowledged, but that gaining power through violence in the Information Age in the face of an increased containment makes hatred and conflict not cost effective.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:21 pm
The Russian ruble is completely managed right now and the official value bears no relations to its actual value.

The yuan is similar in that the value is controlled by the CCP. It is not a free floating currency. In terms of other currencies, the dollar is stronger against almost everything since the beginning of the year.
You asked, I answered. Then you make up "magic" regarding the value of whatever currencies you want to claim are "managed" as if all currencies aren't. Then you admit the USD isn't stronger vs the two I mention. Great argument.

At this point, your posts are more proof that you don't even know what's going on.

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

DaKardii wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:11 pm
Knowing Biden, he's probably orchestrating this visit in hopes of sparking a war. Ukraine just wasn't enough, was it?
Nikkei Asia: U.S. deploys ships and planes near Taiwan as Pelosi eyes visit.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... eyes-visit
They reportedly called it off when cooler heads realized the level of provocation, but now apparently they want to bring it on.
Russia CLEARLY stated their intentions with absolute bottom lines. And everyone didn't believe it.
Now China CLEARLY is stating their bottom lines. Do they want to slog it out or maybe they learned something from Ukraine. Stronger level of initial attack probability is a good bet. Our internet connection will be gone at that point and we'll be pre-modern level lifestyle for a while. SHTF coming

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:35 am
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:21 pm
The Russian ruble is completely managed right now and the official value bears no relations to its actual value.

The yuan is similar in that the value is controlled by the CCP. It is not a free floating currency. In terms of other currencies, the dollar is stronger against almost everything since the beginning of the year.
You asked, I answered. Then you make up "magic" regarding the value of whatever currencies you want to claim are "managed" as if all currencies aren't. Then you admit the USD isn't stronger vs the two I mention. Great argument.

At this point, your posts are more proof that you don't even know what's going on.
Please just stop replying to me. They're never worth reading and are annoying. Spend you time parroting disinformation to someone who might fall for it.

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

FullMoon wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:11 am
DaKardii wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:11 pm
Knowing Biden, he's probably orchestrating this visit in hopes of sparking a war. Ukraine just wasn't enough, was it?
Nikkei Asia: U.S. deploys ships and planes near Taiwan as Pelosi eyes visit.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... eyes-visit
They reportedly called it off when cooler heads realized the level of provocation, but now apparently they want to bring it on.
Russia CLEARLY stated their intentions with absolute bottom lines. And everyone didn't believe it.
Now China CLEARLY is stating their bottom lines. Do they want to slog it out or maybe they learned something from Ukraine. Stronger level of initial attack probability is a good bet. Our internet connection will be gone at that point and we'll be pre-modern level lifestyle for a while. SHTF coming
Just like their support for arming Ukraine, this kind of provocation by the Democrats is waaaay out of character. They're normally spineless ass-kissers to the strongmen of the world, especially the communist ones. Again I ask, why? Could they be willing to start a war, thinking that will give them the means of remaining in power?

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

Bob Butler wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:05 am
FullMoon wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:18 pm
It's not just Russia. This is just the beginning.
If you think the current paradigm stays intact, then statistics are meaningful. If not, we're entering a new system. I believe John has called it the clash of civilizations.
What you know will be obsolete soon enough. And then you'll be bereft and helpless like the majority, sadly suffering.
I for one agree that we’re entering a new system. I try to look at history from several perspectives all at once. S&H turnings suggest that civilizations face upheaval and change every four score and seven years. Various civilizations (Western, Orthodox, Oriental, etc…) with different dominant nations (US, Russia, China, etc…) are at various points of evolution and have different values. Different ages (Hunter Gatherer, Agricultural, Industrial, Information) have different patterns of civilization, with computers, nukes and not cost effective wars being major factors in the Information Age.

Thing is, I see the Chinese and Russian (Orthodox) civilizations as being behind the curve, still pursuing the authoritarian communist style, and Russia at least pursuing war as a way to profit and gain power. They have replaced kings with dictators, but are sticking with autocratic government and conflict, or are trying too. Thus, they are championing the old Industrial Age pattern rather than embracing the Information Age pattern. NATO and the Asian alliance against China are practicing containment, making it harder for Russia and China to continue the idea that expanding through war is profitable and advantageous.

The various perspectives come together with this being a crisis, Russian and China are two civilizations confronting the West, and this is a cusp where we are shifting from the Industrial to Information Ages. With Russia being close to military and economic collapse and China to economic collapse, advancing more firmly into the Information Age pattern seems likely.

This is an admittedly an optimistic view given the crisis not yet resolved, but the older autocratic cultures may be forced to step up, adapting to the existing technology. The keys are whether NATO can outspend Russia militarily and whether China can reject a planned economy that is going south on them. Thus, the impending collapse of the two old civilizations can be looked at as progress towards the Information Age.

John? Generational Dynamics includes a strong element that cultures hate each other and this hate can advance conquest and conflict. I see this as an Agricultural and Industrial Age truism, a behavior pattern that should be recognized and acknowledged, but that gaining power through violence in the Information Age in the face of an increased containment makes hatred and conflict not cost effective.
Regardless of the Age, wealth and power are still the prime motivators. You talk as if the Information Age will usher in some new, peaceful period where there won't be autocratic rulers, yet where none of us will own anything and be happy about it. Do you not see the near monopolistic power that Google, Facebook, et al, wield in the dissemination of information? And that they use that power overwhelmingly to benefit their political friends on the left? They actually collude with the Russias and Chinas of the world to censor average citizens from expressing/sharing views. Sorry, humans and human nature do not change, just the tools at their disposal.

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:35 pm
thomasglee wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 4:57 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:57 pm
Disclaimer: I am fanatically pro-life.
Do you think the SCOTUS decision will help or hurt the GOP this November?
No effect, IMHO.
Yes, it's already forgotten. Will it come back in some form? Sure.

I see (R) house majority and Senate about 55-45.
I'm not so optimistic. First, The left still controls the media and social media, and most of the election apparatus (including the voting machines). Second, in typical fashion, the R's don't and won't really stand for anything. Trump actually stood for something, and they couldn't stand it. McCarthy is a tool, and only says what he thinks people want to hear. If they embraced Trump's political values and positions they would win in a landslide. Instead, they promise to investigate and impeach Biden. Are you kidding me? That's the kind of stuff you don't run on, you just do. Hell, they can't even take a stand on illegal immigration, because too many R's like the current system and don't want it changed. Getting the big money from corporate donors is more important than the human misery they cause.

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

JDav wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:20 pm
FullMoon wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:11 am
DaKardii wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:11 pm
Knowing Biden, he's probably orchestrating this visit in hopes of sparking a war. Ukraine just wasn't enough, was it?
Nikkei Asia: U.S. deploys ships and planes near Taiwan as Pelosi eyes visit.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... eyes-visit
They reportedly called it off when cooler heads realized the level of provocation, but now apparently they want to bring it on.
Russia CLEARLY stated their intentions with absolute bottom lines. And everyone didn't believe it.
Now China CLEARLY is stating their bottom lines. Do they want to slog it out or maybe they learned something from Ukraine. Stronger level of initial attack probability is a good bet. Our internet connection will be gone at that point and we'll be pre-modern level lifestyle for a while. SHTF coming
Just like their support for arming Ukraine, this kind of provocation by the Democrats is waaaay out of character. They're normally spineless ass-kissers to the strongmen of the world, especially the communist ones. Again I ask, why? Could they be willing to start a war, thinking that will give them the means of remaining in power?
Good question. Watching their performance recently we could assume it's part malice and part hubris mixed with confused ignorance.
Dak seems to have a good perspective often on these affairs. What thinks you?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

JDav wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:42 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:35 pm
thomasglee wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 4:57 pm


No effect, IMHO.
Yes, it's already forgotten. Will it come back in some form? Sure.

I see (R) house majority and Senate about 55-45.
I'm not so optimistic. First, The left still controls the media and social media, and most of the election apparatus (including the voting machines). Second, in typical fashion, the R's don't and won't really stand for anything. Trump actually stood for something, and they couldn't stand it. McCarthy is a tool, and only says what he thinks people want to hear. If they embraced Trump's political values and positions they would win in a landslide. Instead, they promise to investigate and impeach Biden. Are you kidding me? That's the kind of stuff you don't run on, you just do. Hell, they can't even take a stand on illegal immigration, because too many R's like the current system and don't want it changed. Getting the big money from corporate donors is more important than the human misery they cause.
That (R) is largely useless isn't my debate. My prediction still stands. The left, including the likes of bobby bish on this board, is insane and crazy, and has chaotic/destructive policies. That's explanation enough to turn a midterm election to the so called conservatives.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider] and 47 guests