Financial topics

[vincecate]

Amazon invested in Rivian. When Rivian went public they took the then market price for Rivian and did the accounting like they had an extra $11 billion in profits, even though they did not sell their Rivian shares.

Now that Rivian is down, they may have to show a loss for the quarter.

https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/a ... 1-earnings

Wonder how many other companies are in this boat. If P/E ratios are high and the E has been inflated by stocks going up, then it would be easy for it all to collapse.

[Cool Breeze]

My take is that Powell will pause any more hikes past mid June, and in September apparently they are going to taper a majority of the Fed buyback/repo buying programs, which spells major trouble for liquidity in ETF and real estate markets, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. She even thinks that he might do it all to show that he's not politically inclined (controlled demolition of the market). We shall see.

[richard5za]

My take is that Powell will pause any more hikes past mid June, and in September apparently they are going to taper a majority of the Fed buyback/repo buying programs, which spells major trouble for liquidity in ETF and real estate markets, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. She even thinks that he might do it all to show that he's not politically inclined (controlled demolition of the market). We shall see.

My apologies but I am not actually understanding this post. Are you saying that the Fed will not actually deal with inflation? And that there will be a serious liquidity problem in ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds?) and real estate? Why only these since this suggests a broad liquidity problem? And what does 'do it all' mean?

[Cool Breeze]

My take is that Powell will pause any more hikes past mid June, and in September apparently they are going to taper a majority of the Fed buyback/repo buying programs, which spells major trouble for liquidity in ETF and real estate markets, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. She even thinks that he might do it all to show that he's not politically inclined (controlled demolition of the market). We shall see.

My apologies but I am not actually understanding this post. Are you saying that the Fed will not actually deal with inflation? And that there will be a serious liquidity problem in ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds?) and real estate? Why only these since this suggests a broad liquidity problem? And what does 'do it all' mean?

No, the short answer is that the plan may very well be to "deal with inflation" through a controlled (so they think) demolition - mostly they hope through the wealth effect. They are praying currently for inflation (via the CPI propaganda tool) to recede so they don't have to look like they are going to do as much (raise rates again) thus preserving the stock market. Powell is able to make an executive decisions, regardless of what the other governors say, on tapering the balance sheet buy(back) programs, and that decision (which way, how fast to change, etc) takes place Sep 1. Currently most of the liquidity for propping up troublespots is in ETFs and real estate, that's why it is supported by the Fed. Got me now?

Check https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feder ... latestnews out if you wish, as an example of what is to come, or at least what the plan is:

To start, the Fed plans to reduce its Treasury and agency mortgage-bond holdings by $47.5 billion a month starting in June, but to increase its asset reductions in September at a steady pace of $95 billion a month.

and

While reiterating the need to quickly raise rates, Powell also spoke to the potential for wide-ranging effects by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

“You know, we run these models, and everyone does in this field, and make estimates of what will be the — how do you measure, you know, a certain quantum of balance-sheet shrinkage compared to quantitative easing?” he said, according to a transcript of the news conference.

“And you know, these are very uncertain. I really can’t be any clearer,” he said.

[vincecate]

The Cleveland Fed Nowcast is estimating 8.23% for May and 8.64% annualized for Q2. They have been under much more than over in the last year.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

[Higgenbotham]

The futures have gone negative at 4142 with a low of 4140. Anything can happen, but this is the kind of reversal that can lead to a crash. I think the trap door is open.

Since the market didn't fall apart over the past 2 days, I think the bulls now have a better chance to drive it over 4200.

[richard5za]

"...it is equally beyond doubt, that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money."

The Economist, 1858

[richard5za]

The futures have gone negative at 4142 with a low of 4140. Anything can happen, but this is the kind of reversal that can lead to a crash. I think the trap door is open.

Since the market didn't fall apart over the past 2 days, I think the bulls now have a better chance to drive it over 4200.

The bulls may drive SP 500 back over 4200 but looking at the following data collected since early January 2022 high, I suspect it will be another failed rally:

First high 4810 (on Jan 2 this year 2022)

Failed rally 4740
Failed rally 4590
Failed rally 4390

First low 4150 (on 8 March)

Second high 4630 (on 29 March)

Failed rally 4500
Failed rally 4300

Second low 3870 (on 20 May)

This is absolutely not a bull market pattern and another failed rally is the probability. As regards a crash? Yes, there is just too much bad news which will come together at some point

[aeden]

EU zones understand and conveyed the point they will burn it down upon themselves.

Good – benefits self & others
Bandit – benefits self while harming others
helpless – benefits others while harming themselves
Stupid – harms self at the expense of others

From the European citizen’s perspective, the EU leadership is Stupid.
From the Russian perspective, they are helpless.
Either way, the day is coming soon when Europe will experience a second French Revolution in each capital plus a
possible sealing of the EU Congress building and burning the place down with everyone inside.

And it will serve them right.

Stupid people have no business in any position of power.

The one world cult will burn it down so only blue helmet's are allowed to shoot you as you starve in a most peaceful
stupidity.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/bl ... ore-233689

This bear rally will be devastating. No one even pretends to think production starts will a delusional premise of no carbon as problem for
feedstocks to products.

Slowly the Sun has Rises on the dawn to the fact the Senates embracement of madness in plain site. The taxpayer held hostage to foreign insanitys.

[aeden]

ESG Funds Post Largest Monthly Outflow On Record As The "Greenwashing" Racket Starts To Unravel

Will recheck back as we noted the SEC recent tone to the taxpayer looting of this epic lie cheat steal ruse upon us.

Mon May 02, 2022 10:40 am
https://www.sec.gov/files/2022-ocr-staff-report.pdf
The ESG sales pitch to investors is internally inconsistent and fundamentally incoherent...

It was and is not acrimony as we witnessed the Senate unable to even pretend to act as American under our duress from foreign actors
in abject malice.

Our Lady Liberty lain bare stripped naked, prostituted womb laid open and children butchered for tissue profit, violated naked in the Street.
Shame of the Senate as they linger with Evil.