Nuclear War

[tim]

https://jrnyquist.blog/2022/03/15/the-a ... -humanity/

How can the West resist this plea? Can the civilized world stand by and merely watch? The alternative, of course, is to risk nuclear war. The Russian government has sternly warned the world to stay out. They have put their nuclear forces on alert. They are ready to launch their missiles. And here is a moral dilemma. Does the West remain comfortable and safe as it watches an entire nation destroyed?

I am afraid there is no happy answer here. If we do nothing, I must tell you my honest opinion. We will be bombed and attacked when our turn comes. This is something I came to understand long ago. Putin and his communist allies are destroyers, and they seek America’s destruction even more earnestly than they seek Ukraine’s.

Putin has shown that he is a destroyer, not a creator. The destruction we are now witnessing appears quite insane to us. Yet Putin is not a madman. Destruction is a choice open to all. It is the choice, I believe, of all the totalitarian countries. And we have refused to recognize this. War with these countries has always been in the cards. And if by some miracle we avoid a great war now, it will yet come.

And for that matter, we have communists right here in America, facilitating the work of destruction, aiding and abetting our enemies in Beijing and Moscow. Watch the death and destruction unleashed on Kiev. There are even more destructive Russian weapons aimed at New York and Washington. If the leaders in Moscow are willing to level the cities of their brother Slavs, do you think they will fail to level our cities?

We have no idea how much danger we are in right now. And we have no idea how much our own survival may depend on the survival of Ukraine.

[tim]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ussia.html

Potassium iodide tablets SELL OUT in US over fears of nuclear war with Russia with $14 packets now selling for $149 on eBay

CNN has reported that manufacturers of potassium iodid in the US have recorded rapidly depleted inventories recently in light of Russia's invasion

[London calling]

Would Russia blowing up the nuclear power plants in Ukraine and poising Europe activate Article 5?

[Tom Mazanec]

What to know about the threat of nuclear war
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/14 ... uclear-war

Are We Facing Nuclear War?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/podc ... putin.html

Nuclear war has long posed a particular threat to Washington state
https://crosscut.com/mossback/2022/03/n ... gton-state

UN secretary-general: Nuclear war is 'back within the realm of possibility'
https://www.businessinsider.com/united- ... ble-2022-3

Russia expert on whether Colorado is still the nuclear target it was during the Cold War
https://www.9news.com/article/news/loca ... a5f90e42bc

What the science says: Could humans survive a nuclear war between NATO and Russia?
https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/ ... nd-russia/

Weapons of mass destruction: what are the chances Russia will use a nuclear or chemical attack on Ukraine?
Published: March 15, 2022 2.59pm EDT
https://theconversation.com/weapons-of- ... ine-179098

Nuclear weapons: Why reducing the risk of nuclear war should be a key concern of our generation
https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons-risk

Fact Check Team: How prepared is the US for a nuclear attack?
https://katv.com/news/nation-world/fact ... imir-putin

Pope evokes spectre of nuclear war wiping out humanity
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/po ... 022-03-16/

Brink of NUCLEAR war: Ex-RAF chief warns the world could be only 'a few steps' from atomic weapons being used as increasingly desperate Putin struggles to win his war in Ukraine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... chief.html

Putin’s Nuclear Threats Are a Wake-Up Call for the World
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... er/627058/

Third of Americans Would Risk Nuclear War With Russia Over Ukraine: Poll
https://www.newsweek.com/third-american ... ll-1688473

Russia, Ukraine And The Risk of Nuclear War
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/russ ... clear-war/

On Top of Everything Else, Nuclear War Would Be a Climate Problem
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... te/627005/

The Devastating Effects of Nuclear Weapons
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/deva ... apons-war/

This is what would happen to Earth if a nuclear war broke out between the West and Russia
https://www.salon.com/2022/02/19/this-i ... -west-and/

It doesn’t take a madman to start a nuclear war
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/it ... clear-war/

How will SA be affected if a nuclear war broke out in Europe? This simulation thinks it has the answer
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... he-answer/

A Cognitive Bias That Could Trigger Nuclear War
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... uclear-war

'He's a psychopath!' Vladimir Putin more than capable of launching nuclear war on West
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... -latest-vn

Are we Heading Toward WWIII & Nuclear War?
https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/o ... uclear-war

The risk of nuclear war was already the highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Putin has made it far worse, former energy secretary says
https://fortune.com/2022/02/28/nuclear- ... est-moniz/

[Navigator]

Would Russia blowing up the nuclear power plants in Ukraine and poising Europe activate Article 5?

I would say yes, but I don't see this as likely given that it would effect Russia just as much.

More likely, though improbable, is the Russian use of a tac nuke in Ukraine.

If they did that, I would hope that NATO would get materially involved. But that is not guaranteed, as Ukraine has no treaty/protection guarantees at all from any outside power.

[tim]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 22292.html

White House and Pentagon officials claim that there is no increased danger of nuclear war with Russia despite Putin's nuclear threats, so U.S. nuclear forces remain at DEFCON 5—their lowest readiness level.

If they are wrong, then the U.S. nuclear posture would invite and reward a Russian surprise nuclear attack, adding a nuclear 9/11 or nuclear Pearl Harbor to the long and recent list of spectacular intelligence failures.

And they are wrong.

Despite my critique of DNI Haines above, her failure to adequately warn Congress during the ongoing Ukrainian crisis about an elevated threat of Russian surprise nuclear attack is less a personal failure and much more due to cultural and institutional biases that may be insurmountable:

U.S. and Western Strategic Culture is so conditioned to fear nuclear war as “unthinkable” and so averse to appearing a nuclear "alarmist" that even the defense and intelligence communities will probably fail to warn.

Confirmation Bias, telling political leaders what they want to hear, is a lot easier and far more rewarding than “speaking truth to power.” President Biden does not want to hear from his own DNI that his Ukraine policies have brought the U.S. to the verge of a nuclear war.

Political Bias, termed "politicization of intelligence," can be driven by external political pressure or internal political views of intelligence community analysts. The increased nuclear threat from Russia during the Ukraine War is an "inconvenient truth" for downsizing and diminishing U.S. nuclear deterrence, as many in and out of the Biden Administration would like to do in the new Nuclear Posture Review.

Omniscience Bias is the intelligence community's pretense that they know everything, often manifest in the phrase "there is no evidence for," in this case, Russian preparedness for a surprise nuclear attack. They prefer to forget “absence of evidence is not proof of absence” and often ignore evidence contradicting their preferred narrative, as in this case where there is substantial evidence for an increased Russian nuclear threat.

Intelligence community credibility would profit if they would more often admit how little they really know: "Putin's declaration of a special alert for nuclear forces is impossible for us to confirm or deny. We do not even know what ‘a special mode of combat duty for Russian nuclear forces is. We do know Russian ICBMs are capable of launching within minutes a surprise nuclear attack, and their preparations could be unknown to us.”

Mirror Imaging is the assumption that Russia and other adversaries share the Western view that, as President Biden jointly declared at the 2021 Geneva Summit with Putin: "A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought." Yet Russia, China, and North Korea do not believe this, as manifest in their military doctrines and nuclear warfighting capabilities. Assessing adversary threats by the Western worldview, Western values, Western "rational actor" models, Western "nuclear redlines," and U.S. operational procedures for mobilizing its nuclear Triad of ICBMs, missile submarines and strategic bombers is dangerous.

Service Bias results from the U.S. intelligence community being top-heavy with analysts from the military services that reinforce "mirror imaging" about how Russia would prepare to fight a nuclear war. Submariners naturally think their service is most important, so Russia would surely deploy its subs to sea, as the U.S. plans to do. The U.S. Air Force and its officers have had a long love affair with strategic bombers that require three days to mobilize. U.S. ICBM missileers are least numerous in the military services and the intelligence community, are subordinate to the Air Force, and are not indoctrinated or trained to make surprise nuclear attacks against anyone. In contrast, Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces, comprising ICBMs and their missileers, are the dominant military service, given preference over all other military services in budgets, material, and personnel. They are constantly training for nuclear warfighting. U.S. intelligence community analysts deeply proficient in Russian, Chinese, or North Korean strategic culture, nuclear doctrine, nuclear force capabilities, and nuclear operations are a minority voice.

History suggests the intelligence community will fail to provide strategic warning and be surprised, even amidst a crisis or major war, as in Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, North Korea’s surprise invasion of South Korea in 1950, North Vietnam’s surprise Tet Offensive in 1968, and the surprise terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001.

[tim]

https://emptaskforce.us/wp-content/uplo ... 91122A.pdf

--During the August 1991 failed coup d’etat against Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, led by
the General Staff and KGB chief Vladimir Kryuchkov, who were true believers in the Surprise
Nuclear Missile Attack (VRYAN) program, the General Staff put Soviet nuclear forces on
Increased Combat Readiness to detect and preempt an impending U.S. surprise attack. The U.S.
intelligence community failed to warn. I personally witnessed a senior CIA officer breakdown in
tears during the crisis, defending the failure to warn the President and Joint Chiefs as a “higher
duty” to avoid U.S. Triad generation of ICBMs, missile submarines, and bombers, because this
might escalate into nuclear war.

--On January 25, 1995, in response to false warning that a Norwegian meteorological rocket was
a U.S. SLBM, the leading edge of a nuclear surprise attack on Russia, for the first time all three
Chegets (Russia’s equivalent of the U.S. presidential “football” for authorizing nuclear strikes)
activated for President Yeltsin, General Pavel Grachev (Defense Minister), and General Mikhail
Kolesnikov (Chief of the General Staff). It was the most dangerous moment in the nuclear
missile age, an accidental nuclear war averted only because President Yeltsin refused to “push
the button” and waited until the rocket fell harmlessly into the sea. The U.S. intelligence
community was unaware of these perilous events until President Yeltsin publicly disclosed them
afterwards. Many in the U.S. defense and intelligence communities drew exactly the wrong
conclusion, complacently arguing that Russia’s “system worked” for avoiding nuclear war.

--In 2017, North Korea successfully demonstrated ICBMs that could strike the United States,
detonated an H-bomb they described as capable of “super-powerful EMP attack” and displayed
an H-bomb ICBM warhead, flew missiles over Japan, and made repeated unprovoked threats to
strike the U.S. and allies. Reportedly, General James Mattis (then Defense Secretary) selfmobilized for a North Korean nuclear attack by having emergency communications available in
his car, in his bedroom, and sleeping dressed to go. But the press and policymakers were
allowed to believe that the North Korean nuclear threats were mere “bluster.” The U.S. nuclear
Triad of ICBMs, submarines, and bombers remained at DEFCON 5, as if there was no threat.

[tim]

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/03/ ... ince-wwii/

U.S. Admiral: Beijing Armed South China Sea Islands in ‘Largest Military Buildup Since WWII’

U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Adm. John C. Aquilino told the Associated Press in an interview published on Sunday that China had fully militarized three artificial islands built in the territory of the Philippines as part of “the largest military buildup since World War II.”

The three artificial islands were built on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef, territories belonging to the Spratly Islands, an archipelago legally under the territory of the Philippines.

China’s presence on the islands is illegal regardless of the nature of its construction there. China claims nearly the entirety of the South China Sea, including territory belonging to the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei, as well as waters off the coast of Indonesia. In 2016, the Philippines won a lawsuit against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague in which the court ruled that China had no legal right to be present in the disputed territories, including the three reefs Aquilino discussed this weekend.

Chinese officials called the ruling a “farce” and ignored it; the government of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has repeatedly refused to seek enforcement of the ruling.

The Chinese government seized the three reefs – as well as several others in another chain, the Paracel Islands, disputed by the Philippines and Vietnam – and built artificial islands that Beijing claims are necessary for weather research and surveillance. Chinese dictator Xi Jinping asserted in 2015 that China would not “pursue militarization” in the Spratly Islands.

[Tom Mazanec]

Ukraine War – British-NATO Military Convoy Carrying ‘Nuclear Warheads’ Passes Through Glasgow?
https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-war-b ... r-glasgow/

The only way to guarantee nuclear weapons are never used
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/opinions ... index.html

Why has Russia's Ukraine invasion triggered the nuclear war alarm?
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701620

Fears of nuclear war in Europe stoke demand for fancy bunkers
https://www.winknews.com/2022/03/20/fea ... y-bunkers/

Threat of nuclear destruction at 40% as Putin could 'kill thousands' in last-ditch attack
A WAR analyst has warned there is currently a 40 percent chance of nuclear destruction as Vladimir Putin could launch a desperate attack on NATO.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... est-update

Boston doctor, addressing Russians, warns against nuclear war and ‘end of civilization’
Russian scientists call for joint statement opposing atomic warfare
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/03/16/ ... ilization/

Animated Chart: Nuclear Warheads by Country (1945-2022)
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/nuc ... 1945-2022/

Nuclear war isn't just diplomacy continued by other means
https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war ... ther-means

[El Cid M]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX6ISz0FotU[/youtube]

This is an excellent interview. It confirms what both John and Navigator have been saying.

Beth Rigby Interviews... exiled Russian Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Sky News' Political Editor Beth Rigby sits down with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky who believes President Putin is a "thug" and "a Hitler".