More from Tom Cooper. You can find this update on his Facebook page.
Hello everybody,
Sorry for being late today: my work and care for a badly wounded hen have held me up. Anyway, here my review for the last 24-26 hours (9 Mar 22).
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
Russo-Ukrainian negotiations on 8 March resulted in an agrememnt for ‘humanitarian corridors’ for evacuation of civilians from 10 cities in Ukraine. The list included Trostyanets, Kranopillya, Sumy, Mariupol, Volnovakha, Izyum, Kharkiv, and Kyiv’s suburbs of Buch, Berodyanka, and Irpin. There seems to be lots of reporting about this in the media, but except for Sumy (where few thousands of people were evacuated to Poltava), I haven’t found a lots of evidence for successful evacuation.
The flow of foreign volunteers to Ukraine has reached such proportions, that the army seems to be in the process of establishing a legion of something like four different battalions. One is entirely staffed by Canadians, perhaps by few Britons, too; at least one is staffed by Americans (seems to include one South Korean), and one by the Portuguese, Brazilians, Azerbaijanis, Belarussians, Chechens and quite a few other nationals. Reportedly, two – including the last one – are already in action, but don’t ask me where: nobody would say, and thus no idea.
AIR
The Russians have demolished a maternity hospital in Mariupol. It’s unclear whether it was an air strike or ballistic missile, but three people – including a little baby – were murdered there. Of course, the Fools in Kremlin and the Keystone Cops rushed to explain the building was empty, then there were radicals there, and when confronted by obvious evidence, declared everything for fake news Free along the moto: we first bomb, then ask questions, and if the answer are not what we want to hear, then it’s all fake news… and yes, there after ‘militant hospitals’ in Syria of 2015-2017, now there are ‘radical hospitals’ in their official vocabulary.
The VKS also bombed Zhitomir, yesterday, and one of related videos (see:
https://twitter.com/WW3Unbiassed/status ... 4369915910) prompted claims it’s now deploying Sukhoi Su-57 ‘stealth’ fighters.
Ho-hum…Unless there’s far clearer evidence, to me this one is another Su-34. Foremost, despite all the possible claims by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, Putin’s media, and some of involved companies, the software for the integration of all of Su-57’s sensors and the fire control system is still incomplete: indeed, the last I’ve heard in this regards, back in August 2021, was that they had to re-start the work of writing entirely new software (see Project Megalopolis), and that for second time in less than three years. Moreover, it’s anything else than ‘stealth’: it lacks the necessary coating, and its design (foremost intakes and the rear section) is incomplete. As such, it can be considered a ‘reduced radar-cross-section’ type, slightly better than the Boeing F/A-18E/F in this regards. Considering international sanctions, lack of know-how, lack of necessary research-, development-. and production facilities, and lack of funding: I have my doubts they’ve managed any major advances in this regards by now. Finally, the Su-57 has got absolutely no guided weapons. Of course, the Russians can install an SVP-24 or similar system to help with navigation and then ‘bomb coordinates with dumb bombs’, like all of the VKS is doing – but, in an air force as driven by dogmatic doctrine like the VKS is: why do so with a jet for which there’s no defined doctrine yet?
No doubt, this entire war is based on entirely irrational megalomania, but there are limits, too.
BTW, if the Su-57 is operational and flying combat sorties, then somebody has to explain me why has the confirmed number of ballistic missiles fired by Russia upon Ukraine surpassed the figure of 710, yesterday, early in the morning? If they have a ‘stealth’ jet, they need not depleting their stocks of SS-21s and SS-26s that much (yes, even in the case of an ‘all-out war’).
In other air-warfare related news: the Ukrainians claimed four VKS Su-25 shot down yesterday, plus two helicopters, and two cruise missiles, all of these in the Kyiv area (their total of claims is now at 56 aircraft and 82 helicopters). Have missed the latest figures of the Keystone Cops, though: not easy to follow, given all of their media is shut down in the EU.
NORTH
There are reports along which the 35th CAA has widened the frontline of its advance into Ukraine for about 30km in western direction along the border to Belarus. Correspondingly, there should have been a heliborne landing somewhere in the Oyruch-Zalissya area (about 120-150km NW of Kyiv), followed by ground advance from Belarus in southern direction. Ukrainians say they have repelled all attacks and the situation was stabilised, but I’ve got little doubts the Russians are at least 15-20km deep inside this part of Ukraine now. Could be an attempt to distract the Ukrainians and force them to move some of their units in that direction, but it could also be the start of an advance on Zhitomir. We’re going to see.
Although – at least according to Ukrainian sources – the infantry of the Russian 35th CAA should have proved unable to secure Borodyanka, Hostomel, Irpin, Bucha, and Yasnohodka on 8 March, yesterday at least two big columns of armour (one including the 6th Tank Regiment) punched out of this densely populated area over the E-40 highway towards south. Both faced fierce delaying action by the Ukrainian infantry armed with plentiful of anti-tank guided missiles, and seems even the Bayraktar TB.2 UCAVs were deployed – in broad daylight – to slow them down. I’m not sure if this was effective enough, because there are indications along which one of the columns turned east and then advanced along the E-40 in direction of Kyiv, too. Foremost, the Ukrainians have proven unable to secure and re-open the E-40 – apparently due to the presence of a large group of VDVs left over south of Makariv from earlier attacks – and that for days. Thus, I guess this assault is going to be stopped only somewhere in western or even south-western outskirts of Kyiv.
NORTH-EAST
North-east Ukraine these days is a madhouse. Sure, Chernihiv is now cut off, as is a concentration of three Ukrainian brigades in the Nizhyn area. These are encircled by some 12-15 BTGs of the Russian 41st CAA. But, the mass of other Ukrainian units seems to have successfully withdrawn into the ‘fortress Kyiv’: in the Russian rear there are Ukrainian-held Shostka, Hlukhiv, Konotop, and Sumy, and at least 5, probably more of very active ‘left behind’ groups, which are constantly savaging Russian supply columns. So much so, that, once again, the glorious the 1st GTA made absolutely no advance yesterday. It’s still spread anywhere between Sumy in the east and Romny in the west, with its columns in disarray, losing vehicles like there’s no tomorrow.
Unsurprisingly, the high-speed advance of the 2nd GTA was stopped in eastern approaches to Kyiv, and its western frontline is now running approximately down the E-95 highway.
The situation further east is almost as tragic – for the Russians. The Ukrainian 92nd Mech is continuing its ‘active defence’ in the Kharkiv area, and has – together with an unknown brigade that attacked from the south-east – managed to push the 6th CAA further away from the city: so much so, it’s now threatening the southern flank of the 1st GTA, too.
Kharkiv is still subjected to severe air strikes and artillery shelling, but still far from becoming surrounded. That is: wasn’t it for the CO 6th CAA, who seems to have deployed what is left of the 144th MRD after its trouncing by the 92nd Mech, for an all-out advance further south-east, on Balaklilisk (which is now under the Russian control) and Izlum. That move nearly cut off the Ukrainian 53rd Mech Brigade. Sure, the unit (or what was left of it after all the losses of the last two weeks) has managed to avoid an encirclement, but had to abandon the Severodonetsk area. Got no evidence, but I suspect that some of its rear elements were eventually overrun by a pincer movement of the 144th MRD from the north and the 3rd MRD (8th CAA) from the East. Seems, the West OSK decided that Kharkiv will have to wait.
EAST
It was no funny day for the Ukrainian CO of the troops deployed along the LOC in the East. The depleted 56th Motor Rifle Brigade is still holding Midlaipole in the west, and has managed to recover Rozivka in the east, but the Russians then turned north and took Staromiynivka, about 10km further north and are thus deep in its rear. It’s no good news for defenders of Mariupol, but seems the Ukrainians will have to fall back north, i.e. away from the city.
It was no good day inside Mariupol either: the Russians claimed two penetrations of their main line of defence. One in the north and another in the west, near the airport.
SOUTH
With Zusko’s 58th having a frontline of about 800km (i.e. being stretched for 460km from Voznesensk in west to Melitopol in the east), it’s unsurprising there are now reports – from the Ukrainian MOD and the social media – that the West OSK established a new Army HQ in the Melitopol area. This should be the 49th CAA. I’m not sure if this means the latter is going to assimilate 58th CAA’s units east of Dnepr, but it seems the centrepiece of the 49th CAA should be at least 3-4 BTGs from the 42nd MRD, which at earlier times was assigned to the 8th CAA (responsible for operations in the Luhansk and Donbas area). Looks like the Russians decided that if they cannot breach the centre of the Ukrainian positions along the LOC, there’s no other solution but to outflank these from the south - through an advance of Zaporozhye and whatever is in between there and Mariupol.
There’s a steady flow of reports about arrival of major reinforcements for the 58th CAA in the area between Kherson and Mykolaiv too. As reported yesterday, multiple Russian sources stress, Zusko ‘must, must, must’ get through – to Odessa and beyond. Thus, the 3-4 BTGs of the 7th VDV Division were reinforced by another two, and the number of BTGs of the 20th Guards MRD should’ve been increased to at least five. The Ukrainian 17th Tank seem to still be on a vacation somewhere east of Voznesensk and north of Kherson.
