Tom Mazanec's Topic

[Cool Breeze]

Hunt never gives up the deflation ghost.

[Tom Mazanec]

Fed Rate Hike Will Cause Hyperinflationary Great Depression – John Williams
By Greg Hunter On February 8, 2022 In Market Analysis 76 Comments
https://usawatchdog.com/fed-rate-hike-w ... -williams/

U.S. may be on 'cusp' of inflation slowdown, Fed's Bostic tells CNBC
Reuters Reuters
Wednesday February 09, 2022 09:47
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-09/U ... -CNBC.html

[Tom Mazanec]

We Are Entering Phase 2 of the Inflationary Spiral! Time Running Out
7,667 viewsFeb 9, 2022

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The Money GPS
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[Tom Mazanec]

MoM inflation December 2021 to January 2022 is 0.84%, or ~9.6% per year.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

Re: Financial topics
Post by John » Sat Nov 13, 2021 10:28 pm

But now imagine how things will look in January 2022:
People will have gone back to work, since the Biden handouts
will have ended.
Even truck drivers will have gone back to work, in order to feed
their families.
With the holiday season over, the flood of products into the
California ports will have slowed substantially, and the backups will
have eased.
Many of the goods that were stuck in ships offshore will finally
make it into retail stores, too late for the holiday season.
So the post-holiday sales will result in price cuts deeper than
in pre-pandemic years.
People will be on their post-holiday diets.
So there's every reason to believe that the CPI will fall sharply in
2022, same as in 2009, and there's no reason to believe that the CPI
increases will continue as they did in the 1970s.

How do you explain the discrepancy, John?

[Cool Breeze]

Why can't people admit they are wrong at least occasionally around here? That's my only issue with the place. Such smart people, but lacking humility in this regard.

[John]

** 11-Feb-2022 World View: Inflation prediction [Corrected]

> I look forward to John's reaction to today's CPI. He made a
> prediction last year (copied on my topic) that inflation would
> drop dramatically in January 2022 (not spring 2022 or mid-2022,
> January).

> My background is science (specifically astronomy). A scientific
> theory stands or falls on predictions. John, who is the World's
> Greatest Expert in the generational Theory of Economics and
> Politics, made a prediction. Reply?

You're completely full of crap, which isn't the last bit surprising,
in view of your behavior in the past.

So you're quoting an analysis I wrote in November 2021.

*** 13-Nov-2021 World View: Analysis of CPI data
viewtopic.php?p=65718#p65718

That wasn't a prediction. It was a lengthy analysis. And it was a
pretty good analysis, pretty close to what's actually happening. I'm
pretty pleased with that analysis.

I updated this analysis late last year:

> So I'm suggesting that the end may come as early as February,
> thanks to the "corrective action" provided by such factors as
> supply chain problems clearing up, holiday-based demand
> decreasing, and post-holiday sales bringing retail prices down.
> It may start coming down a bit later than that, but the Law of
> Reversion of the Mean says that it won't be much later. And that
> doesn't mean that the cpi will fall below 2.62% in February. It
> means that the cpi will have peaked in February, and will start
> falling month after month, until it's below 2.62% and, indeed,
> until it's below 0.

So your statement that I said that "inflation would drop dramatically
in January 2022" contains multiple lies. It's quite an achievement to
have so many lies in so few words.

I did not say that the cpi would "drop dramatically" in January. I
said that the cpi would PEAK in FEBRUARY, or A BIT LATER, and then
would start falling month after month. Since you claim to be a
scientist, you should be able to grasp the difference between
"falling" and "peaking." Also, the cpi figure announced yesterday was
for January, not for February.

The statement that I wrote last year is still true, and is still based
on sound reasoning. The one that I wrote 3 months ago is still
pretty good. Of course, they could be derailed by unexpected events,
such as a major European war. But as things stand now, it's still on
track, and I'm pretty pleased with my analyses.

You claim to have a background "in science (specifically astronomy),"
and you appear to be claiming that gives you some special skill or
knowledge. But instead, you're apparently following in the footsteps
of the "climate scientists" or the "vaccine scientists" or the "CRT
scientists" who lie about everything at will. You've learned well.
You're a great scientist.

[John]

** 10-Feb-2022 World View: Being wrong

> Why can't people admit they are wrong at least occasionally around
> here? That's my only issue with the place. Such smart people, but
> lacking humility in this regard.

I've written over 6,000 articles in the last 20 years. I've responded
to many of the tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of comments I've
received, many of them critical. When someone says that I'm wrong,
and I'm actually wrong, then I apologize and thank him for the
correction. So I've made mistakes, and I always admit I'm wrong.

But before I admit I'm wrong about a particular subject then I have to
be actually wrong about that subject. The current situation is very
familiar to me. People like you and other people in "this place" have
been predicting hyperinflation and "out of control" inflation for
almost every month in the last 20 years, and it's never happened.
While the latest 7.5% reading is higher than I expected, it's not
hyperinflation, and it's not "out of control" inflation. Based on my
analyses referenced in the previous post, inflation is close to
peaking, even if the peak occurs one or two months later than I
expected. If I'm wrong, it will be the first time.

By the way, I forgot to check. Has bitcoin reached $100K yet?

[Cool Breeze]

When someone says that I'm wrong,
and I'm actually wrong, then I apologize and thank him for the
correction. So I've made mistakes, and I always admit I'm wrong.

You have been dead wrong about this for over a year, and you haven't admitted anything. We keep saying inflation will increase, and it's not just me, and we have been right.

But before I admit I'm wrong about a particular subject then I have to
be actually wrong about that subject. The current situation is very
familiar to me. People like you and other people in "this place" have
been predicting hyperinflation and "out of control" inflation for
almost every month in the last 20 years, and it's never happened.
While the latest 7.5% reading is higher than I expected, it's not
hyperinflation, and it's not "out of control" inflation. Based on my
analyses referenced in the previous post, inflation is close to
peaking, even if the peak occurs one or two months later than I
expected. If I'm wrong, it will be the first time.

I never predicted "hyperinflation". I always define terms, because I am a critical thinker and careful to say what I say, and mean what I mean. You claim others say things that they don't say, which isn't honest or critical. It is telling, though.

By the way, I forgot to check. Has bitcoin reached $100K yet?

Nice distraction. It proves my point, just like when you attribute things that people didn't say, as above. I have a thread about such things, which you made. Nice try, though.

[Tom Mazanec]

Apparently you don't know how to count, John.
November 2021 was 3 months ago, not 15.

[Tom Mazanec]

Fed Dangerously and Wrongly Ignoring Money Supply Warns Inflation Expert | Stansberry Research
51,807 viewsFeb 11, 2022

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBzF9WbFejY