Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:35 pm
** 17-Jul-2021 World View: Predictions
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:31 pm
> Interesting that they are trying to get a rise out of Japan by
> acting like they'll nuke them.

> I'm just wondering if the Chinese really are this stupid after all
> these years of shrewdness and buying off western pols.
This might be described as the "Neville Chamberlain" view of China.
Cool Breeze wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:00 am
> There will be a war. The mark archetype is now plain for everyone
> to see, and although more see it than people probably let on to,
> it doesn't mean they'll suffer instead of receiving it when it
> comes. The problem is that we don't know WHEN, and people around
> here are obviously horrible at predicting that. It's not an easy
> thing, but most get mad at guys like me who see the signs of the
> times, but understand that humans are crazy sensational in their
> prediction and grossly overestimate how quickly things are going.

> The war will be "solved" by the man you know, Navi, and then he
> will demand your obedience to usher in world peace. Those of us
> who refuse, will suffer ... for a while. The joke is on the
> demons, and their followers, since we already know what God is
> doing - He wins.
You're making or implying predictions here that are similar to
predictions that thousands of people have made since 30 ad, and which
have always been wrong so far. There's no reason to believe that this
time it's different.
Yes there is, yet I'm not timing it either. Technology is different. No one in the history of the world claimed that as a biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse. The degree of madness is higher than ever, and globalists have greater control than they ever did. Now, as you know very well, and think it will happen to boot, we have nuclear weapons that can cause unimaginable damage.

No, this time isn't different John. Listen to yourself. Or just read my points and re-consider, because any honest thinker will and it will resonate.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Burner Prime wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:16 pm
The Taliban is certain to regain control of Afghanistan, probably in a few month's time.

There are hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of refugees spread across the world. The US has nearly 100,000 and is facilitating many more. This is exactly the same as the Viet Namese "Boat People" period, where tens of thousands fled after the war and ended up in the US. There will be no one to stop the Taliban advance, who already control up to 85%.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/1 ... nia-500150

Per Psaki, The US will be absorbing 20,000 workers PLUS families, so estimate over 100,000 more Afghan refugees in the near-term and more in the long-term:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1 ... of-country

Instead of demanding the Afghanis fight to defend and build their country, we do what we did in Viet Nam: We cut and run, and allow the best and brightest to flee as well, ensuring a total collapse. But we have high hopes that begging and pleading will make a difference:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15630342/ ... ghanistan/

But don't worry, when WWIII hits, according to John, the global refugees from every third world country will magically stop doing what they always do, FLEE, and will hunker down, lock arms with the infidel US troops, and bravely fight to the death to defend the Western way of life. Even though they hate the decadent and faithless West, have no fear they will fight and die for Brittany, Hip Hop, porn, vidya games and apple pie, because reasons.
Amusing, Burner, I got a kick out of it.

What's your take on what happens in the next 5-10 years?

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Madness
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:36 pm
> Yes there is, yet I'm not timing it either. Technology is
> different. No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
> biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse. The degree of
> madness is higher than ever, and globalists have greater control
> than they ever did. Now, as you know very well, and think it will
> happen to boot, we have nuclear weapons that can cause
> unimaginable damage.
Is that really true? Is this really the "maddest" time in history? I
can't prove it, but I believe that the degree of madness is high
during every generational Crisis era. The reason is that the Artist
archetype generation (in our case, the Silents) are the only sane ones
and they keep the younger generations (Boomer, Gen-X) in line. But
when the Silents disappear (retire or die), then sanity also
disappears, and we get madness.

One of my favorite anecdotes, which I believe you'll appreciate, is
that when the Muslims were approaching the center of Constantinople
for the final conquest of the Byzantine Empire in 1453, it is said
that the people of the Senate were having a lengthy political debate
about whether angels are male or female.

So you say, "No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse." I agree that's
total madness, but is it really less mad than debating whether angels
are male or female?

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare
- but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:47 pm
** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Madness
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:36 pm
> Yes there is, yet I'm not timing it either. Technology is
> different. No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
> biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse. The degree of
> madness is higher than ever, and globalists have greater control
> than they ever did. Now, as you know very well, and think it will
> happen to boot, we have nuclear weapons that can cause
> unimaginable damage.
Is that really true? Is this really the "maddest" time in history? I
can't prove it, but I believe that the degree of madness is high
during every generational Crisis era. The reason is that the Artist
archetype generation (in our case, the Silents) are the only sane ones
and they keep the younger generations (Boomer, Gen-X) in line. But
when the Silents disappear (retire or die), then sanity also
disappears, and we get madness.

One of my favorite anecdotes, which I believe you'll appreciate, is
that when the Muslims were approaching the center of Constantinople
for the final conquest of the Byzantine Empire in 1453, it is said
that the people of the Senate were having a lengthy political debate
about whether angels are male or female.

So you say, "No one in the history of the world claimed that as a
biological M/F he is the opposite, and en masse." I agree that's
total madness, but is it really less mad than debating whether angels
are male or female?

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare
- but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."
Good questions. There are definite similarities, and decadence and decay in general are part of these things - you are correct.

What I think you do not deny in this vein, however, is that the world is increasingly smaller in the sense of globalism and manipulation through tech - and you yourself also are claiming the exponential advance of technology in general. I think it is smart to keep in mind that humans are the same and therefore things do rhyme - I accept and agree - but I'm pointing out that it is remarkably different right now for mostly tech and war potential, moving ahead.

What's more, sovereign world debt in this spirit of the age is totally corrupt and there isn't much balance; mostly everyone is doing the same thing. The switch to fiat currencies, something that is NEW historically (yes this time it is different) has a logical conclusion [I'd actually argue an inevitability] in a one world gov't / fiat system.

Think about it.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Global refugees
Burner Prime wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:16 pm
> But don't worry, when WWIII hits, according to John, the global
> refugees from every third world country will magically stop doing
> what they always do, FLEE, and will hunker down, lock arms with
> the infidel US troops, and bravely fight to the death to defend
> the Western way of life. Even though they hate the decadent and
> faithless West, have no fear they will fight and die for Brittany,
> Hip Hop, porn, vidya games and apple pie, because reasons.
According to me? I don't recall ever writing anything about global
refugees. When WW III hits, they'll magically continue going anywhere
they can to feed their families.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Technology Today
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:17 pm
> Good questions. There are definite similarities, and decadence and
> decay in general are part of these things - you are correct.

> What I think you do not deny in this vein, however, is that the
> world is increasingly smaller in the sense of globalism and
> manipulation through tech - and you yourself also are claiming the
> exponential advance of technology in general. I think it is smart
> to keep in mind that humans are the same and therefore things do
> rhyme - I accept and agree - but I'm pointing out that it is
> remarkably different right now for mostly tech and war potential,
> moving ahead.

> What's more, sovereign world debt in this spirit of the age is
> totally corrupt and there isn't much balance; mostly everyone is
> doing the same thing. The switch to fiat currencies, something
> that is NEW historically (yes this time it is different) has a
> logical conclusion [I'd actually argue an inevitability] in a one
> world gov't / fiat system.

> Think about it.
What you're advocating is a universally accepted view that I almost
totally disagree with. The core events -- wars, refugees, poverty,
financial crises -- are the same throughout history, with only changes
in irrelevant details.

Let's take your "sovereign world debt" example. Are you kidding me?
You've heard of Tulipomania, haven't you? At its peak, the price of a
tulip equalled the price of a small house. Talk about inflation!

So there was no technology then, but there's lots of technology today.
But what do the two eras have in common that will result in a
financial crash today that is like the financial crash of 1637? The
answer is securitization of debt.

I don't know why people don't understand this, but fiat currencies are
completely irrelevant, because anyone -- ANYONE -- can create money by
means of securitization of debt.

Suppose I have $100 and you have nothing, so there is a total of $100
in the world. I lend you $100 and you give me an IOU for $100.
Suddenly, you have $100 and I have $100, in the form of a security.
So there is a total of $200 in the world, and we've "printed" an extra
$100.

Now suppose person C also you lends you $100, and you give him an IOU
for $100. Now there's $400 in the world.

Person C believes that you're going to be rich and convinces person D
that your IOU is really worth $200, and sells it to him for $200.

Question: How much money do I have?

Let's take an inventory:

* You have $200 that was lent to you by me and person C
* Person C has $200 that he received from person D
* Person D has a security (IOU) produced by you, worth $200.
* I also have $200, since the market value of your IOU is increased.

So I've made $100 by doing nothing. At the start, there was $200
in the world (me and C), and at the end there was $800.

In today's world, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in the
world mostly in the form of securities. In 1637, there were huge
amounts of money floating around in the form of "tulip futures":
certificates that could be exchanged for a tulip to be grown the
following spring. This came to be known as windhandel (the
wind trade), because the tulip bulbs were never delivered and the
money was never paid. The financial collapse led directly into the 30
years war.

*** 29-Feb-2020 World View: Evaluating historical data
*** viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=50407#p50407

** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 071009.htm



The sovereign debt example went on longer than I expected, so I'll
just summarize the other examples.

I just wrote an article on the crisis in Lebanon, and the crisis is
due entirely to the conflicts between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and
Maronite Christians -- and these differences go back centuries and
have nothing to do with technology.

I just wrote an article on South Africa, and the crisis is caused by
tribal differences between Zulus, Xhosa, Venda and other tribes, which
has nothing to do with technology, and may result in a repeat of the
Mfecane.

The Chinese and Japanese people vitriolically hate each other. That's
been true for centuries, and has nothing to do with technology.

In summary, technology has nothing to do with what's important in the
world today.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

DaKardii wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:31 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:24 am
The story dod not make the accusation that Covid 19 was developed in the US.
It did not outright state so, but it did strongly imply that such a scenario was a real possibility.
No, it didn't. It speculated that various Chinese or Chinese/American scientists may have transferred expertise from US sources to Chinese labs where it was used in Covid research. You read something into the story that didn't exist. I know that you're distrustful of the US government, but you're really taking it too far and need to dial it down.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

John wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:07 am
** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Invading Japan
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:54 am
> Invading Japan would be exceedingly difficult because China
> doesn't have sufficient amphibious troop lift and also would not
> be able to achieve air superiority for other than short
> periods. Plus the fact that everyone in the neighborhood is buying
> anti-ship missiles like they're on sale.
So this is exactly the reason why the "Japan Exception Theory" is
being advanced. The Chinese Communists would not invade Japan with
troops. Instead, they would "invade" Japan with continuous nuclear
bombing. It's obvious that China would do this, since Japan has no
nuclear weapons, and couldn't respond.

However, it's interesting that Japan has displayed a "Screw you - just
try it" attitude. I keep talking about the Chinese thirst for revenge
against Japan, but I also have the impression that the Japanese are
thirsting for a repeat of its war against China. The people in these
two countries REALLY hate each other, and they're willing to show it.

*** 16-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear war
*** viewtopic.php?p=62633#p62633
Interestingly:

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukus ... ppy-n48976
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukus ... ium-n49376
Already, Japan has 9.3 metric tons of plutonium stored at Rokkasho and nine other sites in the island nation, along with around 35 tons of plutonium stored in France and the United Kingdom. Altogether, Japan has the fifth-largest plutonium stockpile of any nation, representing 9 percent of the world’s stocks under civilian control. The figure includes 730 pounds of high-grade plutonium, the kind preferred by weapons designers, that Japan has agreed to send to the United States.
It is speculated Japan could produce a nuclear bomb within 6 months.

jmparret
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:16 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by jmparret »

John wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:38 pm
** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Technology Today
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:17 pm
> Good questions. There are definite similarities, and decadence and
> decay in general are part of these things - you are correct.

> What I think you do not deny in this vein, however, is that the
> world is increasingly smaller in the sense of globalism and
> manipulation through tech - and you yourself also are claiming the
> exponential advance of technology in general. I think it is smart
> to keep in mind that humans are the same and therefore things do
> rhyme - I accept and agree - but I'm pointing out that it is
> remarkably different right now for mostly tech and war potential,
> moving ahead.

> What's more, sovereign world debt in this spirit of the age is
> totally corrupt and there isn't much balance; mostly everyone is
> doing the same thing. The switch to fiat currencies, something
> that is NEW historically (yes this time it is different) has a
> logical conclusion [I'd actually argue an inevitability] in a one
> world gov't / fiat system.

> Think about it.
What you're advocating is a universally accepted view that I almost
totally disagree with. The core events -- wars, refugees, poverty,
financial crises -- are the same throughout history, with only changes
in irrelevant details.

Let's take your "sovereign world debt" example. Are you kidding me?
You've heard of Tulipomania, haven't you? At its peak, the price of a
tulip equalled the price of a small house. Talk about inflation!

So there was no technology then, but there's lots of technology today.
But what do the two eras have in common that will result in a
financial crash today that is like the financial crash of 1637? The
answer is securitization of debt.

I don't know why people don't understand this, but fiat currencies are
completely irrelevant, because anyone -- ANYONE -- can create money by
means of securitization of debt.

Suppose I have $100 and you have nothing, so there is a total of $100
in the world. I lend you $100 and you give me an IOU for $100.
Suddenly, you have $100 and I have $100, in the form of a security.
So there is a total of $200 in the world, and we've "printed" an extra
$100.

Now suppose person C also you lends you $100, and you give him an IOU
for $100. Now there's $400 in the world.

Person C believes that you're going to be rich and convinces person D
that your IOU is really worth $200, and sells it to him for $200.

Question: How much money do I have?

Let's take an inventory:

* You have $200 that was lent to you by me and person C
* Person C has $200 that he received from person D
* Person D has a security (IOU) produced by you, worth $200.
* I also have $200, since the market value of your IOU is increased.

So I've made $100 by doing nothing. At the start, there was $200
in the world (me and C), and at the end there was $800.

In today's world, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in the
world mostly in the form of securities. In 1637, there were huge
amounts of money floating around in the form of "tulip futures":
certificates that could be exchanged for a tulip to be grown the
following spring. This came to be known as windhandel (the
wind trade), because the tulip bulbs were never delivered and the
money was never paid. The financial collapse led directly into the 30
years war.

*** 29-Feb-2020 World View: Evaluating historical data
*** viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=50407#p50407

** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 071009.htm



The sovereign debt example went on longer than I expected, so I'll
just summarize the other examples.

I just wrote an article on the crisis in Lebanon, and the crisis is
due entirely to the conflicts between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and
Maronite Christians -- and these differences go back centuries and
have nothing to do with technology.

I just wrote an article on South Africa, and the crisis is caused by
tribal differences between Zulus, Xhosa, Venda and other tribes, which
has nothing to do with technology, and may result in a repeat of the
Mfecane.

The Chinese and Japanese people vitriolically hate each other. That's
been true for centuries, and has nothing to do with technology.

In summary, technology has nothing to do with what's important in the
world today.
John,

This is exactly what happened in 2008 except the banks used the trillions in the low document real estate market. Watch the banks, that is where the trouble starts.

Joe

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 20-Jul-2021 World View: Japan's plutonium
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:29 pm
> Interestingly:

> https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukus ... ppy-n48976
> https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fukus ... ium-n49376
> Already, Japan has 9.3 metric tons of plutonium stored at Rokkasho
> and nine other sites in the island nation, along with around 35
> tons of plutonium stored in France and the United
> Kingdom. Altogether, Japan has the fifth-largest plutonium
> stockpile of any nation, representing 9 percent of the world’s
> stocks under civilian control. The figure includes 730 pounds of
> high-grade plutonium, the kind preferred by weapons designers,
> that Japan has agreed to send to the United States.
> It is speculated Japan could produce a nuclear bomb within 6
> months.
You're absolutely right to point that out. In fact, I would take the
speculation one step further. I could well believe that the Japanese
have manufactured the nuclear weapons, perhaps with technical help
from the Americans or the Indians, but haven't yet inserted the
plutonium. That way, they can claim that they still have no nuclear
weapons, but they might be able to complete the manufacture within a
few days, when the time comes.

I don't have any evidence of that. I'm just saying that it wouldn't
surprise me.

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