Financial topics

[vincecate]

> The "run away inflation" problem does not happen every year but
> when it does it can wipe people out very fast.

It's impossible at the current time in America, for reasons I've stated
many times.

> John, want to make a "bragging rights bet" where I say the US gets
> a year with over 10% annual inflation rate sometime in the next 8
> years and you say it wont? We can use CPI or some other index if
> you want.

You've been in this forum for over ten years. You've been saying the
same thing dozens of times for over ten years. And you've been wrong
every time. So I'll pass on your "bragging rights bet," and just be
satisfied with the fact that I've already been right dozens of times,
and you've always been wrong.

My main claim is that at some point in the not too distant future, the US is headed for hyperinflation. If I am wrong for 15 years and then right, I will still count it as a win.

[aeden]

And therein lies the rub, because when the time came to unwind the Archegos Ponzi, the Prime Brokers' counterparty was not Archegos but other Prime Brokers. This is what led to the infamous meeting late last Thursday, where a bunch of PBs tried to reach an amicable resolution ahead of Friday's bloodbath. As Bloomberg adds, at several points during those exchanges, bankers implored Hwang to buy himself breathing room by selling some stocks and raising cash to post collateral. But "he wouldn’t budge."

And again the SEC is drooling in the corner acting and being the fools they pretend not to be.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rehyp ... -then-blew

Which is why we will get a token Congressional hearing where politicians care more to hear themselves talk than listen to the answers, the banks will slap a few hands, one or two small sacrificial hedge funds will be shut down, and the world will move on, especially once Archegos is no longer on the front page of the financial media.
It's also why when the next major hedge fund implosion does happen, it will be far more catastrophic.

Thieves and worse on the taxpayers backs blessed by demons.

[Cool Breeze]

In this, Saylor describes why people calling things a bubble (they don't want to think), and adds several more interesting points to show yet again, why bitcoin has great utility, is a desired asset for capital flows, and will continue to impress and gain traction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-82qRBVeSQ

[John]

** 02-Apr-2021 World View: Hyperinflation delusions

> He insists we are a nation of laws but you and I know that isn't
> true. It can change on a dime and will if the right person is Fed
> Chair with this Treasurer (Yellen) and this administration and
> congress. Having said all that, you are wrong John. Period. It can
> and will change if the circumstances are right.

No, you are wrong. Period. This is a deflationary era. Inflation is
impossible. There are lots of things that can change on a dime -- Fed
chairman, Treasury secretary, bitcoin price. But the CPI cannot turn
on a dime and become substantially inflationary. If there's a
financial crisis, then it will become substantially deflationary. So
you are wrong. Period.

> My main claim is that at some point in the not too distant future,
> the US is headed for hyperinflation. If I am wrong for 15 years
> and then right, I will still count it as a win.

OK, if it makes you feel good for me to say it, then if the US CPI
becomes hyperinflationary, I will count it as a win for you.

In fact, to show how generous I am, I'll give you two ways to win.
I'm going to predict that you'll never be able to flap your arms and
fly. If you find a way to do that, then I'll count it as a win for
you. So that's two ways you can score a win, and they're equally
likely.

[Cool Breeze]

No, you are wrong. Period. This is a deflationary era. Inflation is
impossible. There are lots of things that can change on a dime -- Fed
chairman, Treasury secretary, bitcoin price. But the CPI cannot turn
on a dime and become substantially inflationary. If there's a
financial crisis, then it will become substantially deflationary. So
you are wrong. Period.

Is it hard for you to a) read and b) absorb or synthesize more than just simple ideas?

I'm constantly surprised (because I know that you and Higgie are intelligent otherwise) why you won't stop projecting things that aren't written or part of a thesis on to me, for example (or vincecate).

I have said that the momentum and structure is deflation (disinflation) FOR NOW. But that's just talking about things around the CPI, when clearly most goods also cost more than even just 5 years ago. There has been massive inflation in many different sectors, including education, health care, equities - those are the real big 3 - and to a lesser degree (happening now) energy.

Do you dispute that? So there is inflation. This is why some conversations are silly, even some smart people make things simpleton-esque in order to try to act like they are "winning" an argument.

For the FIFTH time, yes, deflationary pressures will reign UNTIL the lid comes off with fiscal policies. Then the CPI even will show inflationary aspects. Then you'll say you were right (and you'll be partly right) but I'm giving the actual entirety of the situation here, and I'm not contradicting you. But you are WRONG in that you don't even know that disagreeing with me here is disagreeing with yourself. You just aren't seeing the big picture. It's frustrating when smart people say stupid things (like "bubble") so they can make enemies or just not think. More on that later.

[Higgenbotham]

The Speculative Episode

This is a brief glance at the rules governing the events that are chronicled on the pages that follow.

Anyone taken as an individual is tolerably sensible and reasonable — as a member of a crowd, he at once becomes a blockhead.
—friedrich von schiller, as quoted by bernard baruch

That the free-enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These — great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects — are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What have not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction. Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved.

There are, however, few matters on which such a warning is less welcomed. In the short run, it will be said to be an attack, motivated by either deficient understanding or uncontrolled envy, on the wonderful process of enrichment. More durably, it will be thought to demonstrate a lack of faith in the inherent wisdom of the market itself. The more obvious features of the speculative episode are manifestly clear to anyone open to understanding. Some artifact or some development, seemingly new and desirable — tulips in Holland, gold in Louisiana, real estate in Florida, the superb economic designs of a political leader — captures the financial mind or perhaps, more accurately, what so passes. The price of the object of speculation goes up. Securities, land, objets d’art and other property, when bought today, are worth more tomorrow. This increase and the prospect attract new buyers; the new buyers assure a further increase. Yet more are attracted; yet more buy; the increase continues. The speculation building on itself provides its own momentum. This process, once it is recognized, is clearly evident, and especially so after the fact. So also, if more subjectively, are the basic attitudes of the participants. These take two forms. There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to stay up and go up, perhaps indefinitely. It is adjusting to a new situation, a new world of greatly, even infinitely increasing returns and resulting values. Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally fewer in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course. They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues; they will be out before the eventual fall.

For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both of the groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Something, it matters little what — although it will always be much debated — triggers the ultimate reversal. Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. Thus the collapse. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang.

[John]

** 02-Apr-2021 World View: Simple ideas

> Is it hard for you to a) read and b) absorb or synthesize more
> than just simple ideas?

That's because it isn't simple. All you know is "Too many dollars
chasing too few goods. Too many dollars chasing too few goods. Too
many dollars chasing too few goods." That's the simple formulation,
which is all you know. But it's much more complex and nuanced than
that.

> For the FIFTH time, yes, deflationary pressures will reign UNTIL
> the lid comes off with fiscal policies. Then the CPI even will
> show inflationary aspects.

No it won't. You're wrong.

[Higgenbotham]

Simple idea:

“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”

― Warren Buffett

The Bitcoin bubble is no more complicated than that. It can be expressed in a number of simple ways.

Inflation is more complicated.

[Higgenbotham]

Is it hard for you to a) read and b) absorb or synthesize more than just simple ideas?

You're just like the fat, spoiled American women you constantly complain about:

Rather, the world capital moves to where it is appreciated, and where women are better (not spoiled, fat, etc).

[vincecate]

Simple idea:

“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”

― Warren Buffett

The Bitcoin bubble is no more complicated than that. It can be expressed in a number of simple ways.

Inflation is more complicated.

The people holding 30 year bonds at 2% are the patsies. The dollar does not have another 30 good years in it, for sure.
The people who bought them when the yield was 1.25% are starting to realize they made a mistake.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2521/30-yea ... ield-chart