Generational Dynamics World View News

[Jeepdinger]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -provoked/

Is this peace through strength? Or the beginning of a tit-for-tat escalation. Time will tell.

[Xeraphim1]

I read that WTI is now trading at $1 a barrel. How is that even possible, even with a lock down? My father was an oil engineer; I doubt he ever expected a day like this would come. It's as if the world is coming to an end.

I expect Iraq and the KSA to witness violent rebellions within the next two weeks. Russians, being sheep, will simply die in poverty as they always have.

WTI is currently $14.68. US oil prices are frequently lower than other blends because it's harder to get to market. Brent is at $21.13 which is a larger spread than normal.

Iraq will have trouble (when does it not) but both Saudi Arabia and Russia have enough holdings to prevent any immediate catastrophe. SA will have trouble before Russia does.

[thomasglee]

rogramming Alert: New Documentary Exposing ‘the CCP Method’ to Premiere
https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-ccp-m ... 19578.html

[Guest]

It will probably not surprise you to learn I think Senator Tom Cotton has the assessment of the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 arising from an accidental exposure of a naturally occurring virus just about right:

While the Chinese government denies the possibility of a lab leak, its actions tell a different story. The Chinese military posted its top epidemiologist to the Institute of Virology in January. In February Chairman Xi Jinping urged swift implementation of new biosafety rules to govern pathogens in laboratory settings. Academic papers about the virus’s origins are now subject to prior restraint by the government.

In early January, enforcers threatened doctors who warned their colleagues about the virus. Among them was Li Wenliang, who died of Covid-19 in February. Laboratories working to sequence the virus’s genetic code were ordered to destroy their samples. The laboratory that first published the virus’s genome was shut down, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported in February.

This evidence is circumstantial, to be sure, but it all points toward the Wuhan labs. Thanks to the Chinese coverup, we may never have direct, conclusive evidence—intelligence rarely works that way—but Americans justifiably can use common sense to follow the inherent logic of events to their likely conclusion.

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morn ... ming-back/

[John]

** 25-Apr-2020 World View: Reports: North Korea's Kim Jong-un is dead

• Kim Yo-jong, the hot younger sister of the child dictator Kim
  Jong-un. Western analysts are debating whether the North Koreans
  would accept a girl as leader.

There are multiple unconfirmed reports coming out of China and Japan
that North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, is either dead or in a
vegatative state, thanks to a botched heart operation two weeks ago.
Reportedly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Friday sent a
team of medical experts to diagnose the situation and provide advice.

The logical successor within Kim's family would be his younger sister
Kim Yo-jong. However, it's not clear that the North Koreans would
accept a female leader. But if the Germans could accept Angela Merkel
and the British could accept Margaret Thatcher and the ancient
Egyptians could accept Cleopatra, then I don't see why the North
Koreans couldn't accept Kim Yo-jong.

Some analysts are suggesting that the death of Kim Jong-un could
trigger widespread social unrest. North Korea has entered a
generational Crisis era, so that has to be considered a possibility.

The North Koreans have been claiming that there are no cases of
Covid-19 in North Korea, but that claim is not believed.

----- Sources:

-- 'Kim Jong-un dead' – multiple sources claim North Korean dictator
died Saturday night
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... ad-reports
(London Express, 26-Apr-2020)

-- Exclusive: China sent team including medical experts to advise on
North Korea’s Kim
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKCN2263DW
(Reuters, 25-Apr-2020)

-- If North Korea's Kim Jong Un dies, who will be his successor?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/if- ... -successor
(National Post, 25-Apr-2020)

---- Related:

*** 20-Apr-2020 World View: North Korea's Kim Jong-un may be critically ill after heart surgery
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=51670#p51670

** 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160804


** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180212

[Guest]

Is it realistic to keep American soldiers in South Korea? We don't have the troops to fight another Korean war. Wouldn't a North Korean attack just lead to nuclear war? And there is a very real possibility that the leftist government under President Moon might surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans in the event of an ultimatum. Where would that leave the US soldiers and their dependents? Answer: gulags.

A right wing Korean government would fight; it's in their DNA, but a liberal government might not.

When is someone going to consider reality?

We are not going to fight a ground war against the Chinese. It won't happen. With their vast stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, nuclear incineration will be necessary to prevent America's complete. A preemptive strike is in the offing, even if the Pentagon will never admit it.

We need to get our people out of harm's way. At the very least, evacuate the dependents and make SK a hardship assignment.

[Guest]

Trump talked him into the Lysol.



Winning!

[guest]

Time to shoot one over Japan. To show who´s still around.

[John]

** 26-Apr-2020 World View: The future of North and South Korea

> Is it realistic to keep American soldiers in South Korea? We don't
> have the troops to fight another Korean war. Wouldn't a North
> Korean attack just lead to nuclear war? And there is a very real
> possibility that the leftist government under President Moon might
> surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans in the event of an
> ultimatum. Where would that leave the US soldiers and their
> dependents? Answer: gulags.

> A right wing Korean government would fight; it's in their DNA, but
> a liberal government might not.

> When is someone going to consider reality?

> We are not going to fight a ground war against the Chinese. It
> won't happen. With their vast stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, and
> biological weapons, nuclear incineration will be necessary to
> prevent America's complete. A preemptive strike is in the offing,
> even if the Pentagon will never admit it.

> We need to get our people out of harm's way. At the very least,
> evacuate the dependents and make SK a hardship assignment.

The mere announcement of a plan to withdraw troops from South Korea
would, by itself, be viewed as a surrender, and would bring about the
worst of the consequences that you fear.

"And there is a very real possibility that the leftist government
under President Moon might surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans
in the event of an ultimatum." --- No there isn't. There isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that the South Koreans would surrender to a
Chinese/North Korean ultimatum.

Moon may be the head of a "leftist government," but that doesn't mean
surrender. One example occurred in July 2017, when Moon responded to
a North Korean ballistic missile test by approving further THAAD
deployments in South Korea, after having blocked them previously.
This caused the usual hysterical whining and screaming from the CCP
thugs, and a Chinese boycott of Lotte department stores and South
Korean tourism. But Moon certainly did not simply surrender to
China's demands. In fact, South Korea stood up more firmly to Chinese
demands than many other countries have been doing.

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190429


In this generational Crisis era, nobody is going to surrender without
a new Korean war -- something that South Korea doesn't want, North
Korea doesn't want, and China doesn't want.

The fact is that the North Koreans have much more in common with the
South Koreans than with the Chinese. Kim's goal has been to reunify
Korea under a North Korean government, not a Chinese government.

If the reports are true the Kim Jong-un is close to death, then China
is facing a major crisis. There's a possibility of détente between
North and South Korea, such as the one that eventually led to the
reunification of East and West Germany, that would shut out the
Chinese.

So there are several possible scenarios about what's going to happen
next. But announcing an American troop withdrawal would trigger the
wrong scenarios.

[thomasglee]

** 26-Apr-2020 World View: The future of North and South Korea

> Is it realistic to keep American soldiers in South Korea? We don't
> have the troops to fight another Korean war. Wouldn't a North
> Korean attack just lead to nuclear war? And there is a very real
> possibility that the leftist government under President Moon might
> surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans in the event of an
> ultimatum. Where would that leave the US soldiers and their
> dependents? Answer: gulags.

> A right wing Korean government would fight; it's in their DNA, but
> a liberal government might not.

> When is someone going to consider reality?

> We are not going to fight a ground war against the Chinese. It
> won't happen. With their vast stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, and
> biological weapons, nuclear incineration will be necessary to
> prevent America's complete. A preemptive strike is in the offing,
> even if the Pentagon will never admit it.

> We need to get our people out of harm's way. At the very least,
> evacuate the dependents and make SK a hardship assignment.

The mere announcement of a plan to withdraw troops from South Korea
would, by itself, be viewed as a surrender, and would bring about the
worst of the consequences that you fear.

"And there is a very real possibility that the leftist government
under President Moon might surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans
in the event of an ultimatum." --- No there isn't. There isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that the South Koreans would surrender to a
Chinese/North Korean ultimatum.

Moon may be the head of a "leftist government," but that doesn't mean
surrender. One example occurred in July 2017, when Moon responded to
a North Korean ballistic missile test by approving further THAAD
deployments in South Korea, after having blocked them previously.
This caused the usual hysterical whining and screaming from the CCP
thugs, and a Chinese boycott of Lotte department stores and South
Korean tourism. But Moon certainly did not simply surrender to
China's demands. In fact, South Korea stood up more firmly to Chinese
demands than many other countries have been doing.

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190429


In this generational Crisis era, nobody is going to surrender without
a new Korean war -- something that South Korea doesn't want, North
Korea doesn't want, and China doesn't want.

The fact is that the North Koreans have much more in common with the
South Koreans than with the Chinese. Kim's goal has been to reunify
Korea under a North Korean government, not a Chinese government.

If the reports are true the Kim Jong-un is close to death, then China
is facing a major crisis. There's a possibility of détente between
North and South Korea, such as the one that eventually led to the
reunification of East and West Germany, that would shut out the
Chinese.

So there are several possible scenarios about what's going to happen
next. But announcing an American troop withdrawal would trigger the
wrong scenarios.

The Moon regime has become more and more dismissive toward the USA over the past several years. South Korean manufacturers are heavily dependent on China and China is dependant on Korea for technologies that can be used in 5G networks. I suspect China and Korea will align against the USA and Japan. South Korea and China needed the Kim family (or at least Kim Jong Un) out of the way to achieve this goal. KJU and Trump were getting along too well and KJU doesn't/didn't want to lose the power and wealth he maintains by a divided Korea. He is not nearly as ideological as his father and grandfather. With KJU out of the way, a confederation between the north and south can be created, giving south Korea access to nuclear and missile technologies, which they will likely use to act as a blocking force against Japan and/or Taiwan in a war between the USA and China. To me, it is becoming more and more clear where south Korea's loyalties are going to lie. Throughout Korea's history, they have been a tributary state to China (or Japan) and it looks like they are going back to that model.