Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:42 pm The Jews will be hyperventilating as they breathlessly report, "Breaking news! There is a promising new vaccine!" Which of course will be total bullcrap, but keep some dry powder to short if or when it happens. If they can rally the market 200 on that only to drop it 150 when the story fizzles out, they can claim victory for the time being.
Opinion: Economic expert with perfect record calling recessions is betting this one will be over by the end of 2020

Published: May 7, 2020 at 8:24 a.m. ET

By Howard Gold

Duke professor Harvey says coronavirus vaccine will end U.S. downturn and the positive yield curve is an upbeat sign
This is what I'm talking about, folks. By the way, this is the same guy who reported the bull market had a lot further to run right before it collapsed. He couldn't even find a medical expert to spout this nonsense, so he had to go to someone in the business field with no knowledge of vaccines. Also, it was reported right on the full moon.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:10 am
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:42 pm The Jews will be hyperventilating as they breathlessly report, "Breaking news! There is a promising new vaccine!" Which of course will be total bullcrap, but keep some dry powder to short if or when it happens. If they can rally the market 200 on that only to drop it 150 when the story fizzles out, they can claim victory for the time being.
Opinion: Economic expert with perfect record calling recessions is betting this one will be over by the end of 2020

Published: May 7, 2020 at 8:24 a.m. ET

By Howard Gold

Duke professor Harvey says coronavirus vaccine will end U.S. downturn and the positive yield curve is an upbeat sign
This is what I'm talking about, folks. By the way, this is the same guy who reported the bull market had a lot further to run right before it collapsed. He couldn't even find a medical expert to spout this nonsense, so he had to go to someone in the business field with no knowledge of vaccines. Also, it was reported right on the full moon.
The market is insane! 33.5 million people have filed for unemployment in 7 weeks and the S&P 500 is heading to 2900!! I am bursting with curiosity trying to work out what sort of event will cause the May secondary crash?
vincecate
Posts: 2403
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:31 pm The market is insane! 33.5 million people have filed for unemployment in 7 weeks and the S&P 500 is heading to 2900!! I am bursting with curiosity trying to work out what sort of event will cause the May secondary crash?
The USA had 164 million workforce in Feb 2020:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_for ... ted_States

At least 22 million work for the government (federal, state, local)
https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-o ... government

The 33.5 million laid off are in the private sector, not government.

22% of USA was getting some kind of government assistance few years ago:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 15-97.html

Federal state and local spending is 36.6 percent of GNP before virus:
https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/percent_gdp

Lets imagine that before the virus 110 million people were supporting 54 million people and then we
move 33.5 million from productive side to supported side. Then we would have 76.5 million supporting
87.5 million. The government gets money by taxes, selling bonds, or printing it. The printing results in an inflation tax.
It is really like the productive side has been reduced by more than 30%. It is like private sector unemployment is up by 30%.
This is really really bad. Taxes and bond sales can not go up enough, it must be the money printing and inflation tax.
It is the only thing they can do.
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:38 pm
richard5za wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:31 pm The market is insane! 33.5 million people have filed for unemployment in 7 weeks and the S&P 500 is heading to 2900!! I am bursting with curiosity trying to work out what sort of event will cause the May secondary crash?
The USA had 164 million workforce in Feb 2020:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_for ... ted_States

At least 22 million work for the government (federal, state, local)
https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-o ... government

The 33.5 million laid off are in the private sector, not government.

22% of USA was getting some kind of government assistance few years ago:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 15-97.html

Federal state and local spending is 36.6 percent of GNP before virus:
https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/percent_gdp

Lets imagine that before the virus 110 million people were supporting 54 million people and then we
move 33.5 million from productive side to supported side. Then we would have 76.5 million supporting
87.5 million. The government gets money by taxes, selling bonds, or printing it. The printing results in an inflation tax.
It is really like the productive side has been reduced by more than 30%. It is like private sector unemployment is up by 30%.
This is really really bad. Taxes and bond sales can not go up enough, it must be the money printing and inflation tax.
It is the only thing they can do.
We are all explaining very adequately why the market shouldn't be bullish at an insane valuation of stocks, but we are not explaining why so many people are behaving as mad. The market is twice fair value if not much more with the ravages of Covid19. Why would a person pay twice too much? What will change for the market to crash?
vincecate
Posts: 2403
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:07 pm We are all explaining very adequately why the market shouldn't be bullish at an insane valuation of stocks, but we are not explaining why so many people are behaving as mad. The market is twice fair value if not much more with the ravages of Covid19. Why would a person pay twice too much? What will change for the market to crash?
Something that makes investors see the reality of it all. Perhaps tomorrows unemployment number would. If they reported 23% as Mish calculates it could shock people but could easily report something closer to the expected 15%.

At some point rising inflation could cause the stock market party to come to an end. P/E ratios must go down with higher inflation rates.

It is a puzzle. Like watching the cartoon character run off the edge of a cliff and not fall till he looks down. When will the world look down?
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I won't have much going on in trading until the market starts to move down. Just biding my time for now. I agree with Vince that the employment report may be the trigger.

Image
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:42 pm The Jews will be hyperventilating as they breathlessly report, "Breaking news! There is a promising new vaccine!" Which of course will be total bullcrap, but keep some dry powder to short if or when it happens.
As far as this goes, I did do some bot smashing today shown below based on the above but did not do much of anything in my futures account.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Even if a bear market has started and wave after wave of pandemics sweep the world as I've predicted, from now until whenever the power grid goes down permanently, we'll be treated with this fake news nonsense of a promising new vaccine or treatment for this or that virus. The bullshit from The 97th Percentile gets so old and tiresome, and the fact that people are influenced by this bullshit gets equally tiresome.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I'm looking at an article in the Washington Post that is behind a paywall, but is available through the Firefox browser interface. That article profiles a cross section of 6 baby boomers who have no retirement savings and is interspersed with statistics. It talks about how they all got to where they are. The situation looks very bleak indeed especially now that the first pandemic has struck. I'll post a few excerpts.
Half of American families in the 56-to-61 age bracket had less than $21,000 in retirement savings in 2016, according to a longitudinal study by the Economic Policy Institute that used the most recent available figures. A less formal survey last year found that little had changed.
A study at Stanford University found the baby boomers have, in real terms, about 20 percent less in savings, 20 percent lower household wealth and 100 percent more debt than the generation born during World War II.
40 percent of retired Americans ... have Social Security as their only income.
The average Social Security benefit is about $1,461 a month.
“I’m looking, but nobody wants a 70-year-old,” she said. “I’ve applied for a zillion jobs. It’s completely impersonal.”
But only about one-quarter of employed Americans work continuously through their 50s and their early 60s in jobs with benefits, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

“It was surprising bad news,” said Munnell, who conducted the study. Many older workers are being pushed out of old jobs, with benefits, and taking whatever they can find. Or were before the coronavirus hit.

In 2019, the number of employed Americans over the age of 65 grew by more than 700,000, to 10.6 million. That accounted for 36 percent of the country’s job growth.

But covid-19 could halt that trend. “If older workers can’t work in high-contact areas,” said Teresa Ghilarducci, who studies aging and employment issues at the New School University in New York, “employers will have to make accommodations for them.” That’s an expense. They’ll have to accept worse working conditions or lower pay — or see those jobs go to younger people, she said.

“We’re going to see a lot of disruption — political and economic,” she said. “There is nothing that will slow down the desperation of older workers.”

People in their 50s and 60s have come to be seen as more vulnerable because of the disease, Munnell said, and those who have lost their jobs this spring will be less attractive to potential employers. “It has just made the prospects more dismal," she said. “I think they’re going to have a harder time reentering.”
Just print more money, right? As Americans like to say, "Easy peasy." In my opinion, life is about to get very hard in America as it enters a new dark age.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Millions of baby boomers are getting caught in the country’s broken
retirement system

The Washington Post spoke to six Americans who have come to the end of
their work lives with no financial cushion, no nest egg. The
coronavirus pandemic has scrambled many Americans’ financial futures,
but some baby boomers have found surprising ways to cope with the
downturn in the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... etirement/
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

But only about one-quarter of employed Americans work continuously through their 50s and their early 60s in jobs with benefits, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
This surprised me. Also, note that it says only about one-quarter of employed Americans, so it's less than one-quarter of Americans.

I worked though part of my 50s in a job with benefits, but the place was so poorly managed and rife with Gen X Debacles that I gave up and turned in my resignation after about 3 years of being tortured, but performing quite well.

I would think that the vast, vast majority of that one-quarter are government workers (including teachers).
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Google [Bot] and 3 guests