John wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:19 am** 08-Dec-2021 World View: Friday's CPI report
I don't really believe that "experts" trying to predict the cpi have
any reason but their "feelings." So we'll see on Friday whether
they're right, and the cpi reaches 6.9%.
You are right John that investors don't believe the inflation predictions. My question is what have I missed? Of course, I am not familiar with the USA economy or the make up of private consumption expenditure, or how much of this is imported. I do look at the value of the US dollar every day because its an important influence in our lives, and compared to a global basket of currencies the US dollar index is some 8% stronger now than a year ago. So imports related to private consumption should be dampered down just on US currency buying power and supply bottlenecks compensated.
So where is the inflation coming from? Well, oil is up nearly 60% over the last 12 months but roughly level versus 3 years ago. So oil inflation data and its effects needs looking at. But we are not seeing a major effect of oil on inflation in my country and all our oil is imported.
What I do know from life experience (and might be wrong, of course) is that once inflation is above 6% and going up, you need to take really tough measures to get it under control. And that's the trigger for a bear market which no one appears to be seeing. Except Vince!
John wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:19 am
But I've been hearing news reports that the supply chain backups have
been easing significantly. There are only 20 ships waiting offshore
in California, while there were 89 ships a couple of months ago.
"The dramatic decline in the number of ships at anchor stems from a new policy set by shipping trade groups that encouraged incoming ships to wait out in the open ocean rather than close to shore. Starting Nov. 16, boats crossing the Pacific have been asked to sit 150 miles offshore as they wait for a slot to unload their cargo, and boats traveling north or south along the coast were asked to sit 50 miles out. Although only 46 ships were waiting in San Pedro Bay as of Wednesday, an estimated 50 additional container ships that embarked after the change are now loitering over the horizon, which would raise the total backlog to a record high."
John wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:19 am
I don't really believe that "experts" trying to predict the cpi have
any reason but their "feelings." So we'll see on Friday whether
they're right, and the cpi reaches 6.9%.
I am not any certified expert, but I do think I wrote the first simulation of hyperinflation and did write lots of blog posts about hyperinflation and argue on many other blogs about it. So I might have some more insight on how inflation gets out of control than most people. The higher inflation is above interest rates, the more the interest rates are encouraging inflation. So as inflation has gone from 3% to 6.2% and interest rates have stayed at 0%, the push for inflation has gone up. But even in my case, "feelings" is probably accurate.
We shall see in less than 48 hours. Not too long now.
This is a planned enemy insurrection that has been mapped out for years, there is no longer any doubt.
We told you if it was a color issue we would buy you crayons.
I should have written "I don't really believe that "experts" trying to
predict the cpi have any reason but their "feelings" or the usual "too
many dollars chasing too few goods" meme that doesn't apply during a
generational Crisis era.
Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:30 pm
Once you close a sector the production base and then knowledge collapses. Some times on monolopy purposes of intent and events to few regard in history. On another note we are watching as this time around the unprecedented efforts to stimulate the domestic economy have left many uninformed investors blind to the weakness that is being experienced in what is seen an important engine of global growth, emerging markets." Every market cycle is different, with leading divergences by copper prices lasting anywhere from a couple of months to several years. The last time the divergence between copper prices and the S&P 500 was as long lasting as the current cycle was prior to the S&P's 2007 price top. The tower of babble is worshipping the policy of the FED. The disconnect is staggering now. We are watching semi conductors also.
Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:23 pm
The Dutch are the exclusive manufacturers of the extreme ultraviolet photolithography equipment necessary to produce 3 nm designs.
The rest is bull shit for crayon chewers to distort what they are truly after.
It also starts with water since now it is a priceless industrial commodity unless your a brain dead Marxist.
Both sides of the pond understand this as the other corridors got secured we also watched real time also.
Like we noted the Taliban was swinging pick axes to their new masters of dead on arrival tech.
The life cycle as Kuznet or Hurst cycles for the facts if it suits them for now.
The point is simple in Human Action.
The choke point are obvious to some since the simm issues.
John wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:19 am** 08-Dec-2021 World View: Friday's CPI report
I don't really believe that "experts" trying to predict the cpi have
any reason but their "feelings." So we'll see on Friday whether
they're right, and the cpi reaches 6.9%.
You are right John that investors don't believe the inflation predictions. My question is what have I missed?
So experimentally we know that 4%, 5%, 6% CPI reports don't really make people believe in inflation.
My question is at what CPI reading, 7%, 8%, 9%, or 10%, do you think people will believe inflation is a real problem?
To me it seems like more and more people are getting a bit worried. So it seems like 7% or 8% should be
enough to make people believe.
We can't even get the guys that keep talking about deflation to explain why the CPI (itself a horrible measure of the cost of living, real inflation is at least 2x that for all things COL) is continuously increasing - and we just dominated them on the transitory lie, to boot. Until they can be honest that currently things are markedly inflationary, it's like we aren't even speaking the same language.
