Financial topics

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/loo ... die-winter
You voted for death a death cult and you got it.
Yes its true we seen it coming as more than a few also.
These demsheviks lie cheat steal now thinking paper will cover it.
Ruled by complete liberal idiots elected with idiots.

As the price of energy goes higher, the costs will fall disproportionately upon the poorest in Society.
They now stand on the Capital step laughing we will ram Marxism theft right down your damn throat with
fiat debt to save the planet with no energy to survive. They will lie cheat steal you also to total collapse.
The supply chain experts anticipate we will see what survives into 2023 only.
This rather supports are 2024 observation as before.
Your swamp village idiots will see sooner than later the current market has nothing to do with the real economy.

When the dollar spikes up gold goes down just wait for actual trend carving an actual bottom.
Yea check the 300 ma day also. We will dollar cost average going forward.
Bank on the greed of these things called a market.

Three month returns of the alleged market.
book 2 6.35%
S&P 500 Index 0.23%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.91%
Dow Jones Utilities Average -0.16%

9% Stocks 91% Cash

The idiots only lie cheat steal tax until collapse thinking open border invasion by the millions will save you.
They cannot clean out the homeless camp since they will overrun it in 24 hours wasting tens of thousands of dollars anyways
just like every where else in real time we watch. Cartels will slaughter any unaffiliated dealers as it is in real time.

Billion in fake pills and human trafficking's supported by the criminal democrats.

March sweeps set up August targets and yea the Bears owned September Kids.

Digital certificate expired so you slaves can buy the new surveillance tools.

[aeden]

H is right I smell a relief rally bull trap.
Mind the gap

[Higgenbotham]

H is right I smell a relief rally bull trap.
Mind the gap

Last night I thought about posting, then decided not to. I was going to say the S&P might strike a short term low in the 4270 to 4280 area. This morning I started covering right at the low of 4289 but only got 3% of my short position covered before it went back up. My goal was to get 15-20% covered in that area. Good thing I decided not to post.

There was some panic selling in the futures last night. I saw the futures drop 6 points in less than a second. I wasn't sure if that meant the market was close to a washout low or whether a crash was just getting started.

[Higgenbotham]

If I'm up a few hundred on the day I'll generally let everything in inventory go at a loss even if I think it's going higher, as shown above.
It did go higher and almost always does but my idea is to leave the scene of the accident with a profit every day if possible.

Sound advise and so far this week treading water only.

I remember posting that. On its face, it looks like stupid advice but there's a reason for it, as you know.

A few years ago, a financial advisor who was about 72 years old (been in the business for decades) told me he couldn't make any money day trading but he was a great longer term stock picker. I was day trading stocks in my account and they locked the account for day trading. So I had to move the account to another brokerage.

The most probable reason he is a great longer term stock picker is because stocks have been going higher for the past 40-50 years. Day trading is much easier for me than long term stock picking but it's hard to cite examples of why because they're so few and far between. That doesn't mean it's easy.

I was day trading Alibaba last year. I bought it in the low 200s and sold it every time it went up. I knew it was the number one favorite stock of the whales. Then it went a lot higher and I stayed away. Someone asked me why I got out, that it was so obvious Alibaba was heading higher. I replied that it was obvious to me too that it should be heading higher in the long run. Today Alibaba stock is at 144. There's no way I could have told you Alibaba would be at 144 today, not even close. I would have said 300 or higher.

By the way, aeden, I saw your explanation for why Chinese stocks are down and I agree.

[vincecate]

Fed's nowcast currently estimates 5.4% for Sept number (out in 10 days or so) and then 5.67% for Oct.
This is the most accurate CPI predictor I know of.

Inflation, year-over-year percent change
Month CPI Core-CPI PCE Core-PCE
October 2021 5.67 4.47 4.74 4.10
September 2021 5.40 4.18 4.42 3.78

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

If these are right, people are going to be more and more skeptical of "transitory". That 5.67% is rather scary really.
Shows inflation is not "on the way down" or "past the peak". But these are just predictions, so time will tell.

[Cool Breeze]

Fed's nowcast currently estimates 5.4% for Sept number (out in 10 days or so) and then 5.67% for Oct.
This is the most accurate CPI predictor I know of.

Inflation, year-over-year percent change
Month CPI Core-CPI PCE Core-PCE
October 2021 5.67 4.47 4.74 4.10
September 2021 5.40 4.18 4.42 3.78

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

If these are right, people are going to be more and more skeptical of "transitory". That 5.67% is rather scary really.
Shows inflation is not "on the way down" or "past the peak". But these are just predictions, so time will tell.

It is curious how many more months we have to be correct for anyone to admit it. Isn't it curious that when others are wrong they never return to the conversation?

[vincecate]

If these are right, people are going to be more and more skeptical of "transitory". That 5.67% is rather scary really.
Shows inflation is not "on the way down" or "past the peak". But these are just predictions, so time will tell.

It is curious how many more months we have to be correct for anyone to admit it. Isn't it curious that when others are wrong they never return to the conversation?

If we are right, the market will eventually admit it. If the market admits it before May I should be a happy camper. I think May is longer than people are thinking when they hear "transitory", so think they will admit it by then.

[aeden]

By people like yourself arming each other with the intellectual tools necessary to identify and respond.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... d-us-about

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germa ... icially-be
https://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?k ... sf=msgonly

thread: adapt, sogo, lightswitch

Paid family leave: $225 billion - Pansy ass losers as we have not missed a day of work since 1972 and yes our Women know what we deal with.
Demshevik lie cheat steal dullards.

ADAPT. Awareness, Desire, Ability, Promote, and Transfer (project management) ADAPT.
FILTH. Failed in Life try Hell.

It appears we have a few democrats who understand what 130 percent actually GDP means.

[Cool Breeze]

If these are right, people are going to be more and more skeptical of "transitory". That 5.67% is rather scary really.
Shows inflation is not "on the way down" or "past the peak". But these are just predictions, so time will tell.

It is curious how many more months we have to be correct for anyone to admit it. Isn't it curious that when others are wrong they never return to the conversation?

If we are right, the market will eventually admit it. If the market admits it before May I should be a happy camper. I think May is longer than people are thinking when they hear "transitory", so think they will admit it by then.

Heresy had a good video (Joe Brown) recently on how regardless of inflation or deflation, a deleveraging is coming. This gets at my greater point that it's inflation (since they WILL choose this avenue, they always do) still leading to a deleveraging. His video proves that what I have been saying around here (inflation then "deflation") is correct, yet again.