Financial topics

[John]

Hi John,

I haven't posted here in the forum in a few years. Long ago I decided that I would not until I was ready to call THE TOP in this market. Here I am, calling the top. I actually expect things to get a bit more frothy in the next week or two but I feel safe calling it at this point.

Thanks for the daily weblog, I try to read it every day. I hope you and all the faithful are doing well.

Fred

Well, Fred, I've seen a lot of people call tops and bottoms in the
last few years, only to come to grief, so take care, and don't forget
the Principle of Maximum Ruin -- the maximum number of people will be
ruined to the maximum extent possible. You have my best wishes.

John

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-3 ... s-back-now

When She goes not how is our view for alpha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYwyjwFg-Zg

no accidents, just intent, either way I will Miss Her.

[Higgenbotham]

In a post to jcsok a few weeks back I mentioned cycle decay in the stock market.

On the following dates the stock market made highs:

5/02/2011
4/02/2012 (336 days later)
9/14/2012 (165 days later)
12/3/2012 (80 days later)
1/11/2013 (39 days later)

165/336 = 0.491, 80/165 = 0.485, 39/80 = 0.488.

The decay ratio of this series is approximately 0.49.

The above is from earlier this month. The next point in this series was today (it is still January 30 here). No stock market cycle decay series I have ever tracked has extended this far toward the limit. My view of this would be that the farther the series extends toward the limit, the more significant the high. This is because it takes more and more emotional imbalance to recycle enough energy to hit high after high with less respite in between.

The next point in the series is in 9 days.

The all time high in 2007 extended to the equivalent of January 11, 2013 in a similar series.

[Higgenbotham]

First of all, we can try to strengthen our financial system, say, by increase--as I mentioned earlier, by increasing the amount of capital liquidity the banks hold, by improving the supervision of those banks, by making sure that every important financial institution is supervised by somebody. There were some very important ones during the crisis that essentially had no effective supervision.

Hey Bernanke, care to stop lying long enough to tell us who is supervising Blue Mountain?

Hey Bernanke, we haven't heard back from you yet.

[Higgenbotham]

I've seen a lot of people call tops and bottoms in the
last few years, only to come to grief, so take care, and don't forget
the Principle of Maximum Ruin -- the maximum number of people will be
ruined to the maximum extent possible.

John

I called a broker the week before last and asked him if he knew anyone short stock index futures. His exact words were, no, all the shorts are broke. Assuming that information is approximately correct and, following the theory, the market should now start ruining the longs.

[aedens]

Malinvestment traction taking hold now it appears. FDR was right no accidents just intent. We got abused and
severly reproached when we mentioned kill switches. You just confirmed it H. The Demoncrats will seek new targets
and as I noted you can see exactly how she worded the release. Just as in Platos dialog when they lie they know
the taxpayer will run back into the cave with his face to the wall watching shadows pass. They just put back on the chains
they forged, that they just took off. The sunlight was to bright for them to see. The contempt of these people has never abated.
It will break down to the three actors on the stage. Statist, Capital, and the final arbiter the Consumer.
The people know who lied and why. It is for pity's sake that they stay there hand some say. The statist say NDAA of fire since they only
understand fear, uncertainty, and doubt and we are more wise. Capital is held in contempt and slowly leaves as the only wise
decision of Value (ethics) to pick up the pieces as we do when they unshackle themselves from the ancient dialog watching the
shadows on the wall as slaves.

[Higgenbotham]

a, I believe that you are correct; in this environment it is not predominantly about stock market valuation or growth, etc., but about internal looting and warfare also known as the 14th Century model or the wasting process.

When the bones of one sub population have been picked clean, they move onto the next. The pie can only get smaller through this process - the power structure is making the pie "larger for me and smaller for you", or "if you think they are out to get you, you are correct", or "that thing on your back that your wife says looks like a target really is a target - she is not hallucinating".

-0.1% GDP says the official admission is the pie is getting smaller and we can assume in a wasting process the official number is overstated. The smaller the pie is getting the more ways will be devised to make you the target.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Crimean_Wars#1571

More anecdotal proof, this time from a 38 year old, as told to me, "All my friends are working and they are all broke." This is what Bernanke has designed for you and your children and it is not by accident. His actual words indirectly state this as the desired goal: "full employment", "inflation targeting", "asset purchases".

The assets Bernanke purchased at full price weren't the shitty old clothes in your closet.

[Higgenbotham]

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of people who filed new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits climbed 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, putting them at a one-month high, according to Labor Department data released Thursday."

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blo ... s-big.html

The chart in this link shows his projected trend from the recent 5 year low in claims.

[John]

> "that thing on your back that your wife says looks like a target
> really is a target - she is not hallucinating".

It was back in January 2008, and I remember the day well, when someone
really screwed me in a business situation, that suddenly the question
popped into my mind, "What the hell is going on? Do I have some kind
of target on my back?"

That was the moment when I really changed my attitude towards people
in general. Prior to that day, I thought that somebody screwing me or
someone else was an individual anomaly. After that day I came to
realize that screwing people and jerking people around had become the
norm.

Since then, if I'm talking to someone (Boomer or Gen-Xer) that I don't
personally know, I start from the assumption that what they're saying
is a dishonest piece of crap. In the five years since I made that
decision, I've never regretted it, and I'm aware of at least two or
three situations where the old me would have believed someone and
would have been screwed again, but where the new me assumed that he
was completely full of crap, and saved myself as a result from being
screwed again.

Feeling nostalgic, I just went back to 2008 to see what I wrote
at the time. In January 2008, I wrote:

** The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... c#e080121c

But more significantly, I wrote the following in May:

** WSJ's page one story on Bernanke's Princeton 'Bubble Laboratory' is almost incoherent
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 18#e080518

In this lengthy article, I quoted speeches by journalists and
economists like Mishkin and Bernanke, where they were saying stuff
that was obviously complete crap. Since they were too intelligent to
actually believe the crap they were saying, they must know that
they're lying, and they must be complicit in the fraud that's going
on.

I also concluded that Greenspan was the last real economist, since his
speeches, whether you agreed with him or not, contained real
substance, while speeches by economists since then had contained no
substance at all. Therefore, he's also the last economist who
isn't committing fraud.

And that's the way I've seen it since then, as I've quoted person
after person appearing on CNBC who were provably lying. I just
quote what they're saying, and point to the WSJ valuations page
which proves that they're lying.

This morning I saw Jeremy Siegel on CNBC. He looked like a bobblehead
doll, as he said that the Dow should go up to 20000. He probably
makes millions each year in consulting fees by spewing that
nonsense that he must know are lies. After he's proven wrong,
he'll blame it on Fox News.

** 14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 14#e120414

[aedens]

“The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children.”
Dietrich Bonhoeffer
Pay Molech or in a cage.
Both party's lied to the people. They are never to be trusted.
The people applied the chains our founders tossed aside.

Thanks for the repost John I will reread them.

Anti market days as dnsd http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_o ... edule.html

Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:52 am
POMO recycle and PD has induced confusion as they worship and forward technicals as we have seen and listed before. They will wish to adhere and cleve to the January effect but we know better. I was expecting a exhaustion drift on my part alone and the basket offsets have kept me up and beyond even to date on acount (a) and no we never abandoned counts or other indicators on (b) either. The Market will speak when it is ready and I will just have to acept a lower beta risk ladder for now. The when, or if actual traction commences from the vaunted transitory they press who knows since you have seen the transition we noted. As we know from the last massacre when consolidations and mergers ended the actual value at the margin merged into the nightmare we have witnessed in timeless cycles that was created for the induced cartels. FDR made it plain clear no accidents just intent. If you think blue or red you are an idiot.

Both sides ignore you every day and as you can see who just paid for that. Hedge fund and private equity managers know that all have been all talk
and no action when it comes to what they really care about as the carried interest loophole.
Does not matter who, or more closely to convey what you vote for it since matters zero to you debt serfs in a plantation nation.
Idiots.

These ambitious men were not naïve; they were overconfident about their ability to manipulate and were hopelessly outplayed.

1963 Communist Goals, Because you’re now left with unproductive, state sponsored welfare recipients that don’t produce anything that you can’t steal from them but they keep you in office. You need the hard working ox middle class to suck the blood from. When the ox makes a run for it, well, you have to find ways to stop that from happening.

Blue Mountain will never ever be touched H.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-3 ... rces-reign