Higgenbotham wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 3:00 pm
Starting with the Sunday open, I worked all night. Based on the screenshot from Friday's close versus today, it can be seen that I entered one additional lot of ES at 2839.50*7 - 2845.00*6 = 2806.50. In addition to that, I traded $1,562.50 out of the market on 27 round turns. Adjusting for commission, my average entry on the additional lot is 2831.00, which is above the high of the day.
My strategy is to enter additional lots in an established downtrend while averaging in near or above the high of the day. On some days like Friday, I just smash the bots for additional protection of my account.
Today's activity brings my break even on the 7 lots to 2732 since I started accumulating shorts during this presumed bear market rally.
Today's results:
PS: I've been asked by someone to continue posting these real time proofs of trading activity because they represent trading reality, not the nonsense and fantasy that you read on most trading boards, stuff like, "Booked my profit, now off to Tahiti!" with never any evidence to back it up.
Higgenbotham wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 6:08 pm
I haven't made any changes since the post.
If it runs higher, I will probably not add, just trade, unless I can pick off the top and it moves down quickly.
I've smashed the bots for $1,025 so far tonight. At night, I like to smash them around the Asian and European opens. As stated previously, I probably won't be adding tonight, just smashing the bots to build up a cushion. Tonight's realized profit so far will take the average entry on my additional lot from 2831.00 to 2846.00, which is near where the market is currently trading.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
After being up all night Sunday night, I was unable to stay awake through the second European open, so resumed this morning. With the market up this much, that hurt quite a bit. The need for sleep is one big drawback of being a sole person fighting the bots and the Fed. My strategy this morning, with the market up 47, is "Rope a Dope" and "Float Like a Butterfly Sting Like a Bee" until I can bring the average entry on the last lot I added up over the current market price. So far, I'm still averaged about 15 points under the market price on that one including all the profits taken below (and yesterday).
At the market high, I stung like a bee twice in the sheep shear zones. As can be seen, I don't stay there long.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
So far this morning, I've smashed the bots for $1,380. Adding that profit takes the average entry on the extra lot I added yesterday to about 2873. The market is about 8 points above that with ESM trading 2881.
Generally, I don't venture into the sheep shear zones unless I think the setup for a market turn is quite good short term and intermediate term both. I can trade in the sheep shear zones commission free plus control my size better, but the risk of finding yourself in a position in the sheep shear zones generally does not outweigh those advantages (unless the market is in contango). However, even in that case, my strategy remains "Sting Like a Bee" until all additional lots added above 5 are in the profit zone.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Once the market starts to crash, there will be no disadvantage of being in inverse ETFs as the market quickly moves straight down so far as I am aware. I will probably be in them if that happens.
But for now, I want to stay out of them until we get into my crash zone of May 11 to May 26, except for very short term.
However, we are now close enough to my preferred likely crash zone and the market is high enough that I will take the risk of trading them.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Everyone saw what happened with oil recently when the front contract went to minus $40 on expiration.
You've all heard about the dangers of the herd mindlessly buying into ETFs. Michael Burry talked about that.
You all saw how the VIX shorts got wiped out twice. We all know about that.
What you haven't heard about is inverse ETFs. Everyone wants to be short inverse ETFs for obvious reasons, but it seems to be a secret. I don't know who gets to short them; if I tried to I doubt it's me, but The 97th Percentile probably can (wink, wink).
When the market crashes, watch those inverse ETFs. You might be surprised as to what happens when The 97th Percentile is forced to panic out of their short inverse ETFs.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 1:06 pm
The sheep shear zones refer to the inverse ETFs.
Once the market starts to crash, there will be no disadvantage of being in inverse ETFs as the market quickly moves straight down so far as I am aware. I will probably be in them if that happens.
But for now, I want to stay out of them until we get into my crash zone of May 11 to May 26, except for very short term.
However, we are now close enough to my preferred likely crash zone and the market is high enough that I will take the risk of trading them.
I wonder how many people are planning a stock market crash this month? I am. Plus H = 2. Plus V =3 What about A - will you put a line in the water?
The ESM is currently trading 2858. Chicago had told me 2886 was important and it collapsed from that level late afternoon.
With my trading profits of today shown below, I've averaged into the additional lot of ESM at 2880, near the high of the week. I'm looking for a bear market and will try to repeat this process over and over, averaging additional lots in near the high of the day I enter them, then adjusting further if the market continues higher, as was done this week.
My break even point on the 7 lots I'm holding has moved to 2736, so I'm still at a loss since I started accumulating this short position.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
richard5za wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 2:27 pm
I wonder how many people are planning a stock market crash this month? I am. Plus H = 2. Plus V =3 What about A - will you put a line in the water?
I don't think too many. And I think even fewer plan on doing anything.
As far as the when, I would compare it to how Foreman looked in the eighth round of the Ali fight where the announcer says, "I wonder if he will punch himself out." The market looks wobbly and I wonder if the Fed has punched itself out. If it starts to fall, well, I know what I'm going to do. Throw everything I have it.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
