Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

I added one more lot tonight at 2901.25. The market is currently trading 2905.25. Today's profit (Realized P&L) averages it in at 2907. That brings my break even to 2759.

[Higgenbotham]

I added one more lot tonight at 2901.25. The market is currently trading 2905.25. Today's profit (Realized P&L) averages it in at 2907. That brings my break even to 2759.

That didn't work (the market is up to around 2916 with a high of 2918.75), so I went on an emergency bot smashing frenzy to reduce back to 7 and get my short term trading profitable for the night. I may try to add another lot around the European open.

[richard5za]

I added one more lot tonight at 2901.25. The market is currently trading 2905.25. Today's profit (Realized P&L) averages it in at 2907. That brings my break even to 2759.

That didn't work (the market is up to around 2916 with a high of 2918.75), so I went on an emergency bot smashing frenzy to reduce back to 7 and get my short term trading profitable for the night. I may try to add another lot around the European open.

Lets try looking at this in technical terms only. S&P500 is at 61.6 retracement at 2935. This is currently the peak level reached by the second wave on Wednesday 29 April. So I can imagine that a lot of shorts went into the market in the dip down in the few trading days after 29 April and until now. So shorts are starting to be squeezed it looks because they were probably made at between 2750 and 2850. If there is an event which shocks the market into turning down the momentum down will be hastened by more shorts being placed. If no shock then I reckon that 3000 is on from squeezing shorts. And in which case the crash is more likely from 18th to 27th. I went short yesterday. We wait.

[vincecate]

14.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/busi ... k-77d7eac2

It seems the phone interviews were around Apr 12th. So clearly things got worse. Also, the interview question "Are you actively looking for a job?" when subject and companies are both in lockdown will tend to under report the real unemployment level.

The true unemployment rate may be closer to 19.5%, the government said in a note attached to its report.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN22K0HW

'It's devastating': The Fed's Neel Kashkari says that the actual unemployment rate could be as high as 24%
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemplo ... rus-2020-5


The peak unemployment in the Great Depression was about 25%:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M0892AUSM156SNBR

If we are losing 3 million jobs per week we have not peaked yet this time.

[Higgenbotham]

That didn't work (the market is up to around 2916 with a high of 2918.75), so I went on an emergency bot smashing frenzy to reduce back to 7 and get my short term trading profitable for the night. I may try to add another lot around the European open.

The European open was the high of the session, but I didn't add. I smashed the bots after the employment report was released, then fell asleep.

Lets try looking at this in technical terms only. S&P500 is at 61.6 retracement at 2935. This is currently the peak level reached by the second wave on Wednesday 29 April. So I can imagine that a lot of shorts went into the market in the dip down in the few trading days after 29 April and until now. So shorts are starting to be squeezed it looks because they were probably made at between 2750 and 2850. If there is an event which shocks the market into turning down the momentum down will be hastened by more shorts being placed. If no shock then I reckon that 3000 is on from squeezing shorts. And in which case the crash is more likely from 18th to 27th. I went short yesterday. We wait.

If I had to guess, I think the dominant market dynamic this week has been: Move the market higher overnight when it's easier to move, squeeze the shorts overnight and hit stops at key levels (we saw that last week around 2960 and last night at 2920), then sell stocks during the day.

What I found most interesting this week is Buffett clearly laid out last weekend that he is not buying stocks at these levels. The market seemed to pay attention to that for about 5 minutes at the Sunday night open and that was it. Except if you include the above dynamic as paying attention.

[Higgenbotham]

I'll be looking to add shorts again next week.

According to the guidelines I've set up for myself (not hard and fast rules, but I'm attempting to approximately follow), in order to add more shorts above the initial position of 5 lots, any shorts that are previously added must be averaged in at the high of the day and then if the market continues higher, the high of the day after that. So this week I added a short above the high of Monday's session (including trading profit that day in the calculation), but since the market continued moving higher in subsequent days, I had to trade enough out of the market to keep up, or abandon the added short. Those guidelines served me well this week, as I did not get caught in a load of shorts as the market moved higher.

I'm guessing that next week the market heads into the crash zone and moves lower in earnest. If that's the case, I'll be able to add a lot of shorts. My methodology in trading would change (but the guidelines would not).

[Higgenbotham]

https://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2020 ... -2020.html
http://www.timesymmetry.com/daily-comments.htm
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tebi ... nt-begins/
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tebi ... d-go-away/

My reason for looking for a crash in the next 2 weeks is different from any of the above. I like to see various people who have been around the markets a long time coming to the same conclusion based on their own unique methods.

The person who wrote the comment in the second link finished 25th in the 2008 CNBC trading contest (I think that was the only such trading contest they have had) using these methods.

[aeden]

Covid unit peaking in our area now.
Staffing numbers to low.
Slow at first then all at once.
Peak propaganda is here.
When your over the target the flak will increase.

The only hope is the mutation rate of the virus. We trended three for brevity
after the first killer was isolated so marvel in welded doors and the burn rate
of the initial incinerators.

Another thought map ignored was the simple point more
than one had been mapped.
You do not need to be an expert to listen to a few who have been sifted by time.
I consider you guys here are just on the edge of target.
The good thing is when you get shot down here you learn.
If we are looking for the sound of a spine cracking you will be disappointed.
The herd mentality of beast will watch as it withers away.
We estimate twenty percent of the service market will cease
and do the math when another twenty percent drop out after that.

We are raising cash and will not risk over three percent going short.
Watching market place software as the desperation assets are hitting the
market.

The Girls are making delivery on food bundles so no one is starving in the network.
The supply chains are holding and non essential contractors in capex and opex limited
in scope.

H mid month your targeting makes sense but adaption markets are forming.
The whales may not make it and will wash up on shore as the window continues into
2024 as seen early. We are closer then some on being early and no prisoners as the dead head
asset striping models are laid waste since local issues press fair trade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj8Y3rV0kHA

Appointment Information:
Visit Type: Rapid Testing
Date: 5/7/2020
Dept: Family Health Center Curbside Testing
Provider: CURBSIDE FHC
Time: 9:50
Length: 10 min

Appt Status: Scheduled

Negative result to date as the eye of it is here.
Like I said the Girls are in the middle of it.
The equipment is breaking down and a few with blisters ow bagging
patients by hand. You souls have no clue what they are dealing with to date.
Mock us all you wish.

[aeden]

The meek shall move ahead as the Communist organizers of plantation economics only move in complaint as such.
When we were targeted for unjust taxes and fees we voted with our feet and now the pagans offer stone instead of bread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chi ... egregation

Critical investments starts with respect of four that deal with your duty to your creator and six with order to the community.
You removed the most important element and it was said after the promise from Noah.
After his promise to Noah and the price of Calvary they still cannot listen or see the promise.
No argument will cure your surveillance capitalism as they crush independent contractors as the edicts utilize
prison for those seeking work as the others slaughter each other from well endowed plantation vote economics.

Two blacks killing a white girl over sneakers and two older whites killed by blacks during a home invasion.
You didn't hear any national outrage over those stories, did you.

[John]

** 09-May-2020 World View: The Prophet

> I wonder how many people are planning a stock market crash this
> month? I am. Plus H = 2. Plus V =3 What about A - will you put a
> line in the water?

> No one knows the day or hour. The angels in heaven don't know, and
> the Son himself doesn't know.

> In human form, pre-Resurection, your comment about the Son is
> correct. But time is part of God's creation and God lives outside
> of time, and is not constrained by time. God's sees from the
> beginning to the end of time. So God knows exactly what will
> happen in the future in every detail.

Aaah yes, once again we revisit that great historical paradox -- if
God is omniscient and can foresee everything, then everything is
predetermined, and there's no free will.

Generational Dynamics shows that there's a lot less free will than
people think anyway. Populations and generations do things that have
been predetermined for decades, sometimes for centuries. Generational
Dynamics incorporates Chaos Theory, Complexity Theory, and System
Dynamics applied to population flows. System Dynamics tells you what
is predetermined, and Chaos Theory tells you what is not.

Catholic Theology could resolve the omniscience vs free will paradox
by incorporating a souped-up Chaos Theory into Catholic Theology.
Under this modification, God would be omniscient and could foresee all
the important things, but he would be unable to foresee some of the
details, which is what Chaos Theory says. Send that up to your pals
in Rome and tell them that they're free to use it with my compliments.

I also think that there's a lot less free will on an individual basis
than people think. There's the concept of a "calling" -- being called
to the priesthood, to medicine, to teaching, to politics, etc. --
where people say, "I didn't pick this job; this job picked me."

> With this updated theological information, and your ability to
> read the signs of the times, you could apply to be a prophet!

I feel that the "calling" concept applies to me and Generational
Dynamics. I can think back to high school and think of things that
pushed me in this direction. So I could also say, "I didn't pick
Generational Dynamics; Generational Dynamics picked me." So in a
sense I don't need to apply to be a prophet (whatever that means),
because prophethood has already applied to me.

And I've compared myself to the the Biblical Jeremiah. We know from
Ecclesiastes that Solomon had an intuitive understanding of
generational theory, and Jeremiah would have been familiar with
Solomon. It must have been pretty obvious to Jeremiah for years that
Jerusalem was headed for catastrophe, just as it's been obvious to me
for 15 years that the world is headed for a financial and WW III
catastrophe.

But the world is not kind to prophets. Jeremiah was thrown into a pit
when he predicted the fall of Jerusalem. He was stoned to death when
his predictions came true. Just as the history of the world is driven
by starvation, war, rape, genocide, and so forth, the history of my
life is a historic paradigm that will only end in death and tragedy.

As I've said before, I never thought that Generational Dynamics was
going to make me rich and famous, but I did hope that I could make a
living from it. Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in
the analysis of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a
living, it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've
known for years. It's been a personal disaster for me. At least
Jeremiah was lucky enough to have a book written about him. Perhaps
my death will allow Generational Dynamics to be more widely
recognized, and someone will write a book about it. I do not want to
be stoned to death. I have no hope for life except to die quickly and
painlessly.