Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

Do you at least understand this, richard?

For example, if we used 1970s CPI formulas, inflation would be around 15% minimum. Now, if people like John or the other guys wanna say deflation WILL happen, fine, but it's not happening nor are we seeing anything happen currently that anything but inflation. Why is that so hard to recognize or is it considered controversial? It's literally stating the facts at hand.

Hi Cool, I don't live in North America, don't have the feel of private consumption expenditure there, don't know the politics on the manipulation of CPI data, etc
What I can say is that in my own country I am comfortable with the consistent calculation of the CPI since my university days (economics major) now more than 50 years ago.
You do need to remember that the CPI will be different for different communities and socio-economic groups in every country, and the overall figure is simply a country average. So what we personally experience might be different to the published figure.
Coming now to your 15% figure presumably versus 12 months ago? My gut says not possible with the US dollar strengthening 8% over the period. Energy had a massive increase in the published data and looked correct, but now will go negative if oil remains at current levels.
John may well be correct when he says the CPI will be well down in the first half of next year. I don't know. I don't have the competence to forecast inflation for the USA

I agree with the first half of your reply, yes inflation is different for everyone because consumption, and the type of consuming, is different. BUT, the final few sentences aren't a distillation of, or part of, my argument. The old CPI we used to use would have showed elevated CPI for decades so it wouldn't have been some new number that is that far off the old ones, it would have been an honest 10% for a long time and then now 15% +

Of course the gov't would never allow that to happen, so they changed the formula; that's the point.

You think energy is going down in cost over the next 2,3, or 10 years? I'm chuckling.

[aeden]

https://www.statista.com/topics/6441/qu ... Keyfigures

The root issue was before orange man bad and captain oatmeal on deck.
Watch them all go glassy eyed even at Jevons.
Cantillon effect market. Jevons later picked up his work. It is obvious we lost them at Triffins anyways.
You wasting your time if you do understand what lead up to the wasting as before as it was seen.
The difference is how it was gamed, yea we explained also and it was even provided on that what the demsheviks had planned
and the now blowback in the market. To control the dumping of imports what is now happening in addition to private flows since yea we told you the imbalaces matter. QE does what some may even ask. It is the assesment of risk to Capital expansion. We even told you Opex was refocusing.

Meanwhile in the real world of deficit fiat math.... date ... Thu Mar 26, 2009 1:41 am
I had written the Senate on the effects of the of 26,000 thousand jobs plus the Fisher rule to the cascading effects to activity losses and the date asserts itself as also the amount we attributed to the Triffin effect to be blunt, and also incorrect in the percentages of change. The totality of effects are as a boot heel grinding on the taxpayers forehead. We where again polite to assert the Keynesian veil and utility to product dumping and the forwarded response was build better products. Well we see how that went with diesel emission software standards, and being put through the wash cycle also.

Susan Schwab, US trade representative, said such exemptions would defeat the object of the talks, to create trade flows. “As we went through the layers of loopholes . . . we discovered that a couple of our trading partners were more interested in loopholes than market access,” she said. Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, said the failure would “send out a strong negative signal for the future of the world economy amidst the danger of a resurgence of protectionism.

They are moving forward... we are eating our capital base to systemic malinvestments which will "are" unfolding.
There seed money is for revenue based infrasture trades of contract. Our basis is pointless since time is a function of reality
and permagrowth has lead us where we already know. The lack of contract and transparency to capital decisions to date have told the taxpayer what to date?

Next time write your people about was it is and not what you want you greedy demshevik lazy shit bags.
Look we are sopping up Dollars and your years behind anyways as we do sugeest what was coming but what is now here.
Imbalance in the flow of goods and services. Inflation is a stupid tax on non producers also. Even before 1990 they knew what was to ensue.
At least Volkner was rude enough then to mop up shitty attitudes to rebalance that crisis to rebalance even as peole had to snake around
plasma centers. The log function of this has been warned about for a long time.
I think H was, and is clearing inventorys as any smart person does called arbitrage.
Its called risk as the demsheviks burn loot murder to stupid to fathom Entrepreneurship as the creation or extraction of value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bygOIaIhpmo

[vincecate]

PPI 9.6%

"On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month
data were first calculated in November 2010."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

[richard5za]

PPI 9.6%

"On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month
data were first calculated in November 2010."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

There's clearly a strong energy influence in here but 9.6% PPI is probably part of the reason that CPI for December has been forecast at 6.98%

Now as regards inflation calculations in the USA: Firstly, in not one country can the CPI claim to be a highly accurate estimate but its sufficiently accurate for monetary policy purposes and done consistently it gives a trend for managing monetary policy. It does look like the US is doing a sophisticated statistical job which is what one would expect from the world's highest educated and richest nation.

When you say "formula", Cool, I think you might mean updates to matters such as sampling error, substitution bias, quality bias, etc, etc, which statisticians in all countries seek to improve and to improve overall accuracy. No ways could these changes alter figures as much as from 10% up to 15% as you suggest.

Vince was and is making a completely different point. He is saying that from reported inflation data, that inflation appears out of control and heading upwards, and neither the market nor the monetary authorities are reacting appropriately

[richard5za]

Having said all the above the FOMC news conference is at 2.30 pm (Eastern Time) today, and perhaps we will all be better informed afterwards

[John]

** 15-Dec-2021 World View: Insider stock sales

> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ponzi ... ecord-pace

> ** 11-Dec-2021 World View: The Trigger?
> This could be the trigger we've been expecting.

When aeden posted a link to an article last week about insiders
dumping their own companies' stock at a record pace.

I speculated that this could be the trigger for a financial crisis.

However, there's a much more benign explanation for what's going on.

Elizabeth Warren and the leftist wing of the Democrat party are
planning new tax legislation that would target capital gains from
stock sales. So the reason that so many insiders are selling stock is
to take the capital gain profit this year, rather than wait till next
year when taxes may be higher. That's the benign explanation.

This whole subject has been in the news because of a twitter war
between Elon Musk and Elizabeth Warren.

However, there's also a non-benign explanation. Larry Summers has
been warning about "spontaneous deflation," and insiders may be
selling to take advantage of the current high stock prices.

[John]

** 15-Dec-2021 World View: Retail Sales

We're always posting links to articles that talk about things that
would push inflation higher.

November's retail sales numbers were far lower than expected.

I would call this something that could push inflation lower.

-- US November retail sales +0.3% vs +0.8% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-novem ... -20211215/
(ForexLive, 15-Dec-2021)

[vincecate]

"Year-on-year, export prices soared an unprecedented 18.2 percent, ..."

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ort-prices

If trading partners are paying lots more for good from the USA it may be that they don't want to buy more bonds or stocks from the USA with the money they get from selling stuff to the USA.

If trading partners are paying 18.2% more for stuff from USA that will tend to drive up prices in the USA.

[John]

** 15-Dec-2021 World View: Export prices

> "Year-on-year, export prices soared an unprecedented 18.2 percent,
> ..."

> https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ort-prices

> If trading partners are paying lots more for good from the USA it
> may be that they don't want to buy more bonds or stocks from the
> USA with the money they get from selling stuff to the USA.

> If trading partners are paying 18.2% more for stuff from USA that
> will tend to drive up prices in the USA.

Export prices affect the ppi, not the cpi. Retail prices afect the
cpi.

[Tom Mazanec]

Much Higher Oil Prices Coming In A Few Years Because Of Bad Policies From Politicians & Bureaucrats?
2,032 viewsDec 14, 2021

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00zeYTkZoM0