Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

I think you've covered it pretty well this weekend, a.

[gerald]

The "500: Internal Server Error" problem was fixed on Tuesday, but
then it came back within the next two days. Network Solutions/web.com
has "escalated" the problem a couple of times, which is their way of
stalling for a couple of days.

I can't tell what's going on, since Network Solutions "experts" (the
word that they use to describe themselves, and which I use ironically)
barely know how to spell computer. But there's a possibility that the
current problem is related to the fact that the Generational Dynamics
web site is still the target of a low-level DDOS attack that's been
going on without pause for years, originating from a network of server
bots in China.

Are you sure it is only China? Why should they care, just entertainment?

[vincecate]

Hussman has another good post. Still looking like the stock market is ready to crash.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131230.htm

[Higgenbotham]

Hussman has pretty much described the problem, at least part of it, when he says the bigger the bubble gets the faster it has to go up to compensate for the risk.

In 1929, the Dow rose 14% in the last 16 trading days and in 1987 the Dow rose 12% in the last 23 trading days. Assuming the low reached on December 18 is starting the final run to the top, the S&P 500 has risen 4% in 7 trading days.

If these are the final days of the bubble, I have no idea whether the market should move that much. Most seem to agree that it is Fed money moving the market and that is more or less steady in comparison to the speculative flows that might occur in a healthier economy.

During this bubble there have been a few moves to intermediate tops and I've counted 3 similar moves as being 19, 19, and 24 days. The 24 day move going into the May 24, 2013 high in the S&P 500 was 10%. The 2 19 day moves were 6%. Sornette had a post a couple days before the May 2013 high saying it was unsustainable: "21 May 2013 S&P 500 in a bubble. Analysis by the FCO indicates that the US stock market index S&P 500 is growing at an unsustainable rate (8.3% gain in 4 weeks) and will soon correct."

I guess that gives us some numbers to work with. I'm tending to think 16-24 days and 8-12% might be a reasonable range to look for if a final blowoff is getting started here. Most seem to be looking lower than 8%. I'll adjust down if it drags on toward day 20 and can't do much more. Now that everyone is talking about a bubble it's reasonable to look for a blowoff as shorts get continually squeezed.

[aedens]

I seen his commetary and will thread it later.
To many will again will never have a sticky clue what is.
What will fill the Turkey is the ember now.
If you follow the logic. http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2010/05 ... -wars.html

http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/ and the peril of simple people.

totalitarian political system masquerading as a religion
moderates understand confusion shelters corruption
just that simple all over

I would remind that the train does not stop after hitting the first obstruction or the second.....
I would consider the venturi effect as this whirlwind passes by. We corrected ourself here once on scope
and scale. I would take the time to reread what zeke and bubba actually did to us and the phases we are
actually in with the paper tigers who we noted correctly had over seventeen percent over capacity and
will supply catalyst and feed stock raws to that energy margin cluster. As I was reminded, the shadow inventory
was not scrubbed up. The avarice is beyond even my estimations now in a few theators. It will still land as
the hayek and keynes subtle agreement on cartelizations, and is. All we have noted lately is some monkey
hammers as a recent bee hive smash in a few segements to be clear. Segments will be targets as baskets are
arranged. I will recheck some wall formations and hold your assesment correct on those H.

[aedens]

Crime and the breakdown of law and order have reached levels I have not seen before. the shinawatra crime syndicate has stolen everything not nailed down and they are now trying to do treaties without parliament vote giving up rights to patent on local herbs and medicines, bringing in GMOs, even trying to build a US military base without a vote of parliament. the shinawatras have brought back their cambodian mercenaries to bangkok and they are picking off the opposition with sniper fire while the globalist BBC and other corporate media spin the story of shinawatra's as fighters for democracy. For more on this check out http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/

So, yes, the game is almost up and a civil war is inevitable in Bangkok.

Not pretty locally either as enclaves separate. The only current noted is denial and escalating.
Circles are insulated by shades of grey of intent

[John]

Crime and the breakdown of law and order have reached levels I have not seen before. the shinawatra crime syndicate has stolen everything not nailed down and they are now trying to do treaties without parliament vote giving up rights to patent on local herbs and medicines, bringing in GMOs, even trying to build a US military base without a vote of parliament. the shinawatras have brought back their cambodian mercenaries to bangkok and they are picking off the opposition with sniper fire while the globalist BBC and other corporate media spin the story of shinawatra's as fighters for democracy. For more on this check out http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/

So, yes, the game is almost up and a civil war is inevitable in Bangkok.

Not pretty locally either as enclaves separate. The only current noted is denial and escalating.
Circles are insulated by shades of grey of intent

Nonsense.



** 2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131202

[Higgenbotham]

I will recheck some wall formations and hold your assessment correct on those H.

Let me know what you come up with. Bottom line is I have no idea what the hell is going on.

I don't think we're in known territory on any longer term cycles in the 20 to 500 year range. At least none that I can surmise. For example, the 20 year double decennial cycle, which is a combination of the decade and 4 year election cycle, should have topped out early this year and be well on its way to a low in late 2014.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 1896#p8204

In the link above I had laid out the cyclical case for a low in October 2013. The wall cycle gurus were looking for a low earlier than that. In 2007, the Fed inverted the 25, 50, and 75 year low to low cycles due October 2007 into a high but got no more out of it. This time we are past October 2013 and the stock market is still moving. I have nothing further than October 2013 to consider for a high in the stock market.

I remember Dent saying the peak of the demographic cycle is when the peak demographic has its maximum annual income, which should have been 1961 plus 47 at the latest and he may have extended that out to 2009 or 2010 for some reason.

Other aspects like valuations and demographics will come into play but it's going to be harder to assess. Demographics keep weighing and sooner or later the fact that 54 year old people are not as productive as 44 year old people and have more health costs will come home to roost no matter how much money they print.

Also, ignoring any productivity differences, employing older people at the expense of 25 year olds who are getting no valuable job experience will not work at all once those older people are too old or sick to work.

Bottom line is, yeah, I already said it.

[aedens]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/192933158/2013yearinreview-30#

[aedens]

Crime and the breakdown of law and order have reached levels I have not seen before. the shinawatra crime syndicate has stolen everything not nailed down and they are now trying to do treaties without parliament vote giving up rights to patent on local herbs and medicines, bringing in GMOs, even trying to build a US military base without a vote of parliament. the shinawatras have brought back their cambodian mercenaries to bangkok and they are picking off the opposition with sniper fire while the globalist BBC and other corporate media spin the story of shinawatra's as fighters for democracy. For more on this check out http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/

So, yes, the game is almost up and a civil war is inevitable in Bangkok.

Not pretty locally either as enclaves separate. The only current noted is denial and escalating.
Circles are insulated by shades of grey of intent

Nonsense.



** 2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131202

He lives there. Who owns the factions?

As the link indicated - Bullets fired at both protesters and police from above. Chaos of course, accidents in politics no damn way.
I reread your story again. It makes sense. As here in the states the fbi was stuck on a case. Called the mob to get a 22 page confession.
Broke the case of the three civil rights kids murdered.