Financial topics

[aedens]

A version of this question actually occurs in the Meno, where Meno asks Socrates:
How will you look for it [i.e. virtue], Socrates, when you do not know at all what it is? How will you aim to search for something you do not know at all? If you should meet with it, how will you know that this is the thing that you did not know?
This answer given to this in the Meno, of course, is just the theory of Recollection, that we already know what virtue is.
QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY PLATO'S THEORY OF FORMS: How can we use terms like "justice," "goodness," etc. to judge and condemn every actual instance of justice or goodness in the world? What are we talking about if it is not anything that we can actually see or point to in the world?
This is still a very serious issue in the 20th century, often called (after David Hume) the problem of "Is and Ought" (or "Fact and Value") since what we see in the world merely "is," yet when we talk about matters of value, we mean what "ought" to be. What "ought" to be doesn't always, or often (or ever), seem to exist, so how do we know about it?

[aedens]

Coppock Curve conveys basket buy for me. I will not trend count it out today H. This is for basket (b)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXUmRVEAQf4

We are close to 25.x years since the Oct 19, 1987 crash. So with sequestration coming within 2 or whatever these days?
1912 - crash happened June 1913
1937 - market dropped by half late 1936 - March 1938 (24.8 years after June 1913)
1962 - May 29,1962 market drops 5.7 % (about 25 years)
1987 - Oct 19, 1987 market drops 22.6% (25.3 years after 1962 flash crash) Yes I know, Benny and the Inkject Distortion

I like the odd, Kuznets cycle since 20 year is the match. I will check the inception date on our implosion date then - First week of March -
that that was twenty years on a outlier note as noted earlier. Strange how things work at times H

[Higgenbotham]

1962 - May 29,1962 market drops 5.7 %
1987 - Oct 19, 1987 market drops 22.6%

Another way to look at these cycles is to look at the areas where the panic was most intense.
For example, I had posted on the 14 month offset. That went from the low of March 6, 2009 to the most intense part of the panic, the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010. About 14 months after that was the end of the buying panic, on July 7, 2011, one day past 14 months. That was the highest point in the market between that point and the onset of the 2011 panic.

My feeling actually in looking at these 25 year cycles was to look at the most intense areas of the 1937 Panic, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the 1987 Crash as the points of interest. Those all took place in the Fall, spaced 25 years apart. Therefore, it was my belief that the buying panic would end last Fall, or double top as an average at last Fall (a mid September and a late December top, in other words).

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ban#p17272

The 2 buying panics of recent months reached maximum intensity at September 13, 2012 and January 2, 2013. That averages out to about November 8, which is OK, but I didn't expect the buying panic to carry over for such a long time past January 2. I think I noted that here, but didn't really say why.

I like the odd, Kuznets cycle since 20 year is the match.

Good thought, there's the Dow Jones low of 50.16 reached on February 27, 1933, not too far above the July 8, 1932 low.

[vincecate]

Those of you who are in the "hyperinflation camp" (and you know who
you are) should take a look at this article on commercial digital
currencies.

I don't really see the connection to hyperinflation.

[Higgenbotham]

The world's largest oil exporter produced 9.025 million bpd in December, down from 9.49 million bpd in November and 9.72 million in October and over 10 million bpd earlier in the year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/ ... DD20130110

As Bernanke has been boosting his counterfeiting operation, the Saudis are withholding oil from the market, as they should. Why trade valuable energy for counterfeit money?

"As I've been saying repeatedly, sustainable economies and market value are not built on money and more money; they are built on solvency, profit and energy flows."

[John]

Those of you who are in the "hyperinflation camp" (and you know who
you are) should take a look at this article on commercial digital
currencies.

I don't really see the connection to hyperinflation.

1. It refers to potentially a lot of money being created, out of control
of the government.

2. It refers to substantially increased velocity of money, out of control
of the government.

Inflation = money * velocity

[aedens]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... nHmwg&NR=1

With the stroke of a pen, the government creates fiat money, thus increasing the quantity of money and credit. After a few years, the people, the workers, even the unions, began to understand what was going on. They came to realize that currency devaluation had reduced their real wages. And Keynes said, in effect, "Certainly mass unemployment prolonged year after year, is a very unsatisfactory condition." But instead of suggesting that wage rates could and should be adjusted to market conditions, he said, in effect, "If one devalues the currency and the workers are not clever enough to realize it, they will not offer resistance against a drop in real wage rates, as long as nominal wage rates remain the same." In other words, Lord Keynes was saying that if a man gets the same amount of sterling today as he got before the currency was devalued, he will not realize that he is, in fact, now getting less.

Theft + Lies = Inflation

All labor - theft of tax = Rate of theft

Natural economy is rate of macroparisites plus the loss of utility. The only method by which a "full employment" situation can be brought about is by the maintenance of an unhampered labor market. This is valid for every kind of labor and for every kind of commodity.

Nominal wage buys less from theft = Less velocity as M2

The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God; inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy — a deliberate policy of people who resort to inflation because they consider it to be a lesser evil than unemployment. But the fact is that, in the not very long run, inflation does not cure unemployment.

Inflation is a policy desease. You chase the fire but can't take the heat.
The rate of theft in Socialism is equal to the loss of ability to live as a Civilized Human Being.
In a free society end users of any asset have authority over its free market pricing.
Owners of gold possess uncommon authority, for gold allows people to invest on the assumption that
the larceny in men's hearts focuses on money, and central banks in turn control the supply of money.
Those who do not trust the wisdom, motivation, and tools of central bankers have a way to express their
lack of trust. They can buy some gold. This upsets politicians. It also upsets court economists that are well-paid
evil sycophants of central bankers. The more unreliable the decisions of the central bankers, the more upset the
economists are with owners of gold. They do not want the price of gold to rise. Such an increase would signal a voice
of protest by a small group of private citizens. They also sell some at times to buy assets so idiots can turn on a light
switch in the morning.

[aedens]

Parachute drop this moron in Syria you numbskulls.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9875954 ... wance.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBQalkIeE7s
Ghandi Is Correct of what is perilous to humanity.

Wealth without Work
Pleasure without Conscience
Science without Humanity
Knowledge without Character
Politics without Principle
Commerce without Morality
Worship without Sacrifice

[Higgenbotham]

Inflation is a policy — a deliberate policy of people who resort to inflation because they consider it to be a lesser evil than unemployment. But the fact is that, in the not very long run, inflation does not cure unemployment.

I've heard 2 schools of thought on this. The first is that inflation is a policy of government - that governments can create inflation at will under any conditions. The second is that governments cannot create inflation at will under all conditions - that the market is bigger than government. I have presented here a third school of thought. When the government becomes bigger than the market - as it is now - and overwhelms a market that is seeking deflation as a natural outcome, then the result will be neither inflation or deflation, but rather a chaotic collapse.

[Higgenbotham]

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... sjan30.gif

Dow Industrials

March 10, 1937 high = 195.59
February 9, 1966 high = 1001.11

Days between March 10, 1937 and February 9, 1966 = 10,563
Days between March 10, 1937 and May 2, 2011 = 27,081

Inverse log [log 195.59 + [log 1001.11 - log 195.59]*27,081/10,563] = 12,865

The actual May 2, 2011 high was 12,876. It only went over the 12,865 trendline value for that day very briefly, for a few minutes near the open of the session as I recall.

Dow Industrials

March 10, 1937 high = 195.59
February 9, 1966 high = 1001.11

Days between March 10, 1937 and February 9, 1966 = 10,563
Days between March 10, 1937 and February 19, 2013 = 27,740

Inverse log [log 195.59 + [log 1001.11 - log 195.59]*27,740/10,563] = 14,244

High last week was 14,039.

DOW LOG CHART.gif (31.13 KiB) Viewed 4826 times