Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/o ... s-proposal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8Q0sX2cv-Q

be carefull cowboys t/y t

specnoise.jpg (44.67 KiB) Viewed 4012 times

Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm Observation: Farming Culture -ALG's lucust's Vs. Hunter Culture - DCA seekers
If you do not understand that historical contrast stop investing now since by now your depleted anyway "3 trade rule". Was I to adversion minded last spring on Capital preservetion. Yes, and some who where are still in the hunt to farm and we picked low hanging fruit to survive for capital preservation. Even the competant will be eaten alive as we have seen since Business is defined by law.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/21 ... s-20121121

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications ... ature3.pdf

Perhaps fiscal policymakers, most of them baby boomers, will strike a deal to balance the budget and reform entitlement programs, but paying down the national debt of $11.4 trillion may become more of a generational struggle than a tax-bracket battle. Boomers are showing every sign of transferring the national debt to their children and grandchildren.
So they forward what we knew 99 years ago? Back to Romans 13 are we?

Costly Cult Discipleship indeed.

“Which of these three do you think was a neighbor to the man who fell into the hands of robbers?”
The expert in the law replied, “The one who had mercy on him.”
H.8 when it comes out every Friday night, and specifically line item 25 on page 18 t

[Higgenbotham]

be carefull cowboys t/y t

There's little E in this economy without government cash infusions into the corporations. Value can't be computed using any historical comparisons, unless it is believed that $1 trillion and growing cash infusions are sustainable long term and will result in a stable society.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTdhVxva5KU
Instability is already happening, as G points out in his thread.
I can wait but the country can't. Just a shot away.

http://www.financialsense.com/node/10387
Kyle Bass: As Long As We Keep Printing Money Stocks Go Higher
Glad he thinks so but $1 trillion per year QE cash infusions are not sustainable and value therefore cannot be computed using the standard models.

http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... ks-is-over
The Secular Bear Market in Stocks Is Over
Glad he thinks so.

The value of the stock market by my reckoning is zero. Hard to believe, but what was a tulip worth in 1637.



What model told the tulip speculators their time was up?

Any form of savings is game for destruction in the carnival. No rules apply. I'll be good unless they take the S&P more than 150 points over the all time high, from where I sit now.

I do expect there can still be some kind of blowoff spike, even from here, that will kill off any remaining shorts. I positioned for that possibility 1-3 years ago. In late 2011, I was ahead of them. I'm not as of now, of course, but it doesn't make as much difference as it did in 2009 when I fell behind. I knew then it could be a long fight. Now it's close to the end no matter what they do.

Price convinces, by definition. I am not convinced.

[aedens]

two weeks left H to the great unveiling of the Q4 13Fs
depends on fx swaps I feel peering into the damn abyss

What model told the tulip speculators their time was up?

The spanish fleet had a new world boating accident on there silver of pieces of eight and license from the other realm to profiteer on shares.
The futures contract then to the said product went bidless in Flanders as strange as its sounds thats what happened. Liquidity pocket, and the air of simple realism we noted as a definition here. The fourth crusaders earlier set the stage and helped the Venitian's dethone Alexius III a usurper in Constantinople in 1202 -1204 for payment of transport to Egypt. Zara from Hungary was conquered first for them also for the trade networks east. Baldwin of Flanders was made Emperor. When Constantinople fell later the West literally had to to West and the main flux period was 1532 to the unfolding of the new currency
shift in power.

[Higgenbotham]

I've pretty much dug my heels in since near the April high of last year. I'm averaged only 9.5 points over where I was there, and have traded out the backwardation and commissions. That's a 74 point loss over the April high. The spreads make it hard for the shorts to hold, which I think gives the market an upward bias. There have been over 24 points of backwardation in the past year.

This is where the rubber meets the road in my opinion and I don't plan to relinquish for any short term reason. If I feel the urge to do that, I will shut the computer off. Bernanke has a tough task from here.

I think this bubble is either near its end or we're moving into hyperinflation. Not much middle ground left. Growth is a fantasy but they are buying the hype.

That's what I mean. Something hits one night and the ES futures go no bid. Stops don't get hit while they go limit down in a blink. We saw a warmup on December 20. It came from near the high I might add.

[aedens]

I agree on your warmup comment. When is a question why is not. I have two thought maps as I indicated from the Dec1 thought or very close in days one way or the other and a personal thought to June. QE is just theft and emotional black mail to counter party's. These OTC contracts as we seen bluemountain is just theft by any other name. They will be out played by CB swaps as time is the central burn rate. As I see it the ECB is doing what the City of London has done with New York in unison with the FED. As always to many moving parts and gravity pools to ideological moves of capital.

[Higgenbotham]

I agree that it's a question of when. The tighter they wind it the harder it will spring. When it does, most of the shorts will be broke, and those who have been playing the game short term and winning (HFT) will give back years of gains if they happen to be long, which most will. The commercial hedgers who are on the short side will have protected themselves but be holding long positions in equities, so there will be very few actual winners when all is said and done. The game at the moment in my opinion is to destroy or buck off whatever shorts are remaining before it unpredictably plunges in a blink.

[aedens]

1628 Commander Piet Hein, of a large privateering fleet, conquers the Spanish silver fleet in the Bay of Matanzas. Ten percent of the booty (177,000 Dutch pounds of silver) go to Frederik Hendrik. Piet Hein receives about 7000 Dutch guilders. He dies the year after, in a fight against his Dunkirk colleagues.

1633 The Tulip bulb mania, or Tulipomania is becoming fanaticism. It lasts for several years until a decree is issued April 27, 1637, declaring that the purchase and sale of tulip bulbs was to be conducted in the same way as other business.

Avarice and stupidity and external shocks to currency flow. The timelines are strangely odd and close. Just as a observation of interest.
We seen what 400 milliseconds can do these days. Inflation targeting are just kill switches in a proxy war reality. And other realities as
step by step realities and I think it warrants stock up on supplies for at least a two month window.

[aedens]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mhastings

[vincecate]

I think this bubble is either near its end or we're moving into hyperinflation. Not much middle ground left.

It seems so. Maybe my S&P put options and SLV call options strategy will finally work. At least one or the other should pay off well.

One thing I am sure of: If you hold onto a 30 year bond paying 3% you will not be happy 30 years from now with the buying power of the money you get paid back with (assuming the Federal government and Federal Reserve even exists 30 years from now, and I have my doubts). Bonds are in a bubble. Money is being created far faster than ever before in American history (increased supply must eventually result in lower value) and yet interest rates are at record lows. When buyers drive up an asset price higher than makes any real sense, it is a bubble that will pop. The Fed is a huge buyer of bonds and has driven the price up higher than makes any real sense. Bonds are in a bubble. It will pop.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/bond-yield/

[Higgenbotham]

1633 The Tulip bulb mania, or Tulipomania is becoming fanaticism. It lasts for several years until a decree is issued April 27, 1637, declaring that the purchase and sale of tulip bulbs was to be conducted in the same way as other business.

Avarice and stupidity and external shocks to currency flow. The timelines are strangely odd and close. Just as a observation of interest.

Another observation I noticed last night is from next week there are 8 47 year cycles back to the peak of the Tulip Mania.

The first 47 year point is the end of the 17 year bull market from 1949, which made its peak on February 9, 1966. The second is the post WWI bubble which made its peak in the Fall of 1919, then burst hard over the next 2 years. Next is 1872 which was somewhere around a peak before the Panic of 1873 but I can't find when that bubble had grown to its maximum. Next is 1825 and that bubble burst in the Panic of (April) 1825. Beyond that I don't know until it hits again at the peak of the Tulip Mania at February 5, 1637.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ ... 3Panic.pdf
http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Panic_of_1825

The common occurrence is that in 3 instances of which I am aware (1637, 1825, and 1966) a bubble began bursting in February to April at the 47 year points, and that is due in 2013 once again. 1872 appears to be a recovery after the first blow hit in 1869, according to the article by Babson linked above. In 1919, the bubble grew until the equivalent of the Fall of 2013.

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blo ... -djia.html
http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.de/20 ... cycle.html

"The 47 Year Cycle and the 35.21 Three Year Cycle are variations of the Kitchin Cycle."

I've searched pretty thoroughly and don't see any discussion of the history of a 47 year financial panic cycle going back to 1637.

I don't think this tells us where this bubble will break, but more likely tells us how extreme it is, especially if it makes higher highs beyond early February.