Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Trevor
Posts: 1253
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by Trevor »

In 2006, people trusted everyone on Wall St. Since 2007, trust of
Wall St. has been eroding, and since 2008, trust of Washington has
been eroding. This is a continuing trend, so that may well be the way
to identify a tipping point.
Eroding? Nonexistent would be more like it. Almost no one trusts Wall Street, ditto for the federal government.

I read that today's drop in the DJIA was the worst since last June, although I'm skeptical that this is the beginning of a long-term trend. We've seen this kind of thing before over the last few years, and yet the stock market continues to rise. If I see a single day drop more along the line of 8-10 percent, I may change my mind, but until then, the bubble is likely going to continue. I honestly don't see a lot of panic- more like jubilation that the market keeps going up and up.
Carl Lieberman
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:47 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Carl Lieberman »

Trevor, that is exactly the thinking behind John's principle of maximum ruin. Nobody can know whether any drop is the start of the big one. But since the market has rebounded on its steady upward climb time and again, the obvious conclusion is to buy the dip. At some point investors will be throwing serious bad money after bad. It's like Nassim Taleb's story of the life of the turkey. Everyday the turkey experiences a life of plenty, until that one day when it all ends. Mix that parable with "The Emperors New Clothes" and our future comes into clearer focus.
gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by gerald »

An interesting list of --

"20 Early Warning Signs That We Are Approaching A Global Economic Meltdown"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-2 ... c-meltdown

a tipping point?
vincecate
Posts: 2403
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Seems still to be about following this. But it is a bit deceptive. On the right the drop is like 50% while on the left it only has to do about 25% to match it. The scales/zeros are not the same.
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In fact someone else has redone the graph and look at it now:
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Last edited by vincecate on Sat Jan 25, 2014 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by gerald »

wonder what this means --

Bank-Run Fears Continue; HSBC Restricts Large Cash Withdrawals

"HSBC is imposing restrictions on large cash withdrawals raising a number of red flags. The BBC reports that some HSBC customers have been prevented from withdrawing large amounts of cash because they could not provide evidence of why they wanted it."

"So I wrote out a few slips. I said, 'Can I have £5,000?' They said no. I said, 'Can I have £4,000?' They said no. And then I wrote one out for £3,000 and they said, 'OK, we'll give you that.' "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-2 ... s#comments
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Well put it this way, when the broker sell the margin stock when they cannot cover is why we have been raising cash and now short less than 10 percent
I would factor as of today. This is a bee hive smash for options players and to be blunt next week I care less. Walk slow, think clear, check DCF "direct cash flow and check short positions before you even care to proceed. No damn reason to think other wise. Like we noted adnauseum watch the P/E . If they step out line there ass was sold already so you can use the lighter fluid anology they poured on themselves. This period has been already noted rather clearly. Old man Potter is buying not selling.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ing#p21418

Keyword: LITCs Quigley 1937 http://shortsqueeze.com/ hunter seeker

Carroll Quigley The Recession of 1937
The recession was marked by a break in wholesale prices, a decline in business activity, and an increase in unemployment. In most countries it began in the spring of 1937 and lasted for about ten months or a year. It was caused by several factors: (1) much of the price rise before 1937 had been caused by speculative buying and by the efforts of "panic money" to seek refuge in commodities, rather than by demand from either consumers or investors; (2) several international commodity cartels created in the period of depression and early recovery broke down with a resulting fall in prices; (3) there was a curtailment of public deficit spending in several countries, especially the United States and France; (4) the replacement of capital goods worn out in the period 1929-1934 had caused much of the revival of 1933-1937 and began to taper off in 1937; (5) the increase in political tension in the Mediterranean and the Far East as a result of the Civil War in Spain and the Japanese attack on North China had an adverse effect; and (6) a "gold scare" occurred. This last was a sudden fall in the demand for gold caused by the fact that the great increase in gold production resulting from the United States Treasury price of $35 an ounce gave rise to rumors that the Treasury would soon cut this price.

No accident to what is coming....

Puerto Rico - Low Income Taxpayer Clinics (LITCs) The "blueprint " just as before on the sticky wages forumed as was our area was also before. Welcome to what we seen when we watched countless who lost half benefits and one third wages as the taxpayer blindly subsidized the blue prints of plant closing.
Locals note: They are fleeing Puerto Rico for the same reason that everyone else is - decades of dependence on US welfare has destroyed the island's economy and culture. Only criminals and the poor are seen on most streets. This is what "social programs" accomplish.
And now my children you understand why you had been instructed not to join the debt sheep in the educational debt bubble
and other affairs. The enactment of H.R. 2847 came one day after the Senate passed the measure, 68-29, without amending the bill to protect the American worker from losing job opportunities to illegal aliens.

Two sides of a balance sheet depression which we know here well. Those reserves are for what we discussed as reg T and the SEC significantly reformed Rule 2a-7, a regulation governing money market funds. Among other requirements, these reforms required money market funds to hold significant liquidity and imposed stricter maturity limits. The thought map to cover the margin debt leverages we discussed and are well aware of as claims while the SEC Permits Portfolio Margining of Credit Default Swaps. I think of it as playing poker in a whirwind but the release of those funds is the transitory holding from the 1983 of intent in the CCI program policy framework that already existed so that rings true if we like it or not.

Grain colonys are treated as grain colonys for the free shit army destoying the common man. Schumer will argue Democrats must defend popular government programs, such as extended unemployment benefits and student loan subsidies, to persuade Tea Party voters they could benefit from federal programs.

"The average Tea Party member, like the average American, likes government run Medicare, likes government built highways and water and sewer lines, likes government support for education, both higher and lower," he will say.

The educational system is broken. Ask the protestants and catholics. Have your children independantly tested. Ask them as we did what is going on and they told us point blank. Day care center for criminals and one was going into education but the "savages run the prison". Impossible to convey how broken and disgusting it truly is. I will have then type a paragraph to what is and why education is terminal they said. Rent seeking waste of money.

We simply know what, and why a effective tax rate of twenty percent is sane and half of these dimmcrats parasites to vanish. Any idiot understands the asian land war thought map and the arc of instability construct as we are anyways.

For lagging local markets expect city taxes to rise and eat another level of capital now since those left standing will be targeted with a larger straw stuck in them. Its here as we warned and another level of attack cannot be denied. Even the Dimmocrats are waking up to the 2014 effect we noted a few pages back.
As we noted the liberal left attack dogs are deployment constructs. I will not repost that book link since we know what it is here.
Circles as was conveyed also to render no man status. It was conveyed not one in a million will see the veil. Tue Oct 29, 2013

Government is paid for by the private sector period. Whether by borrowing money which sucks resources out of the bond market or by printing money which impoverishes private sector savers by keeping interest rates artificially depressed or by old-fashioned taxation, the government finances its spending by taking from the private sector. It is just that simple and the private market will vanish as will you when the tyrants control every facet since it is not moral hazard but moral ineptitude of voters.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7990
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Just my thoughts on what is going on with the stock market; it could be wrong. The Fed did the "QEs" and now they are "tapering". The last QE didn't work very well; as we noted the rate on the 10 year went from a low of 1.6% in May to 3.0% in December. Not good. The Fed needs to find a new source of demand for bonds. What better way to do it than to have the pension funds, etc., reallocate from stocks back to bonds. The stock market goes down some, bonds get bought and the rate on the 10 year goes back down without any additional QE. I think what the Fed does not want to see is for the stock market to get jittery like it did on Friday; they want a controlled drop. Therefore, the Central Banks may do another "Sunday night wonder" in the currency markets Sunday night to stabilize the situation. The second part of this is earnings are starting to lag stock prices by a lot and the Fed is worried that there can be an out of control crash if money keeps going into stocks and stocks go up another 20% or something like that while interest rates keep rising and earnings are flat. That's not to say they will get their wish but this is what I think is happening.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

They still think predilection and fundamentals decides matters. Bias routes are a bent of mental servitude only as diciplined, or to say watching shadows in conviction. Always enjoy confidence excused as station. Hume was correct on a derived view they are coming for lunch.

As we watch and noted days ago Higg and conveyed Jevons paradox of doing more with less and the apparent sticky wage conversation since
the inception of 1993 forumed with the current new application of the same playbook is not trended properly to varying discussions
as formentioned with the current kuznet cycle for the simple sake of conveyance. Its there and plain to see even before Alfred Marshall
and David Hume to Mikolaj Kopernik writings on fiat. The malady is the Cambridge Approach as it took a slightly different approach to the quantity theory, focusing on money demand instead of money supply. They argued that a certain portion of the money supply will not be used for transactions; instead, it will be held for the convenience and security of having cash on hand. This covers the thesis plan from 1983 as forumed alredy. The inital annual liquidation rate of savers. No accidents, and they already knew from 1983 of the CCI program policy framework that existed and before also. As we noted very early and correctly here the LSE replacement announced recently. Dr. Quigley knew this also as He was sent to be "confirmed". The Fabian simple resolve of over time...... As we also say they will be known by the fruit they bear.

“social silences” or to unfold the thought further... Hume had to tone the message but others understood the reason why they had to convey reason in the nature of the day. "The rules of morality are not the conclusions of our reason." - David Hume

As we know the flock of birds simply moved. We seen this with Dents presentation and we noted leakage also. Margin debt is another term for Commercial Credit. The flock are not all the same species now are they. I will consider this a pause phase only for now as noted.

------> thread context http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... iety#p9252
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John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote:Just my thoughts on what is going on with the stock market; it could be wrong. The Fed did the "QEs" and now they are "tapering". The last QE didn't work very well; as we noted the rate on the 10 year went from a low of 1.6% in May to 3.0% in December. Not good. The Fed needs to find a new source of demand for bonds. What better way to do it than to have the pension funds, etc., reallocate from stocks back to bonds. The stock market goes down some, bonds get bought and the rate on the 10 year goes back down without any additional QE. I think what the Fed does not want to see is for the stock market to get jittery like it did on Friday; they want a controlled drop. Therefore, the Central Banks may do another "Sunday night wonder" in the currency markets Sunday night to stabilize the situation. The second part of this is earnings are starting to lag stock prices by a lot and the Fed is worried that there can be an out of control crash if money keeps going into stocks and stocks go up another 20% or something like that while interest rates keep rising and earnings are flat. That's not to say they will get their wish but this is what I think is happening.
I'm unable to find something that says that q4 earnings are bad. Here's something that says
that more beat expectations than not:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... mixed-bag/
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7990
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:I'm unable to find something that says that q4 earnings are bad. Here's something that says that more beat expectations than not:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... mixed-bag/
Earnings haven't been growing nearly as fast as stock prices. From what I've been able to gather, earnings are up about 6% in the past year while stock prices are up about 26%. I think the Fed is worried about this trend continuing, but that's just a guess. I will dig up something I read that Lockhart said about this.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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